The Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC) has released its latest climate change report, and the sobering results indicate that the world is running out of time to prevent a climate catastrophe. One of the report’s key findings confirmed that in order to limit global warming to the Paris Agreement’s goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius or below, worldwide emissions would need to peak within the next three years. That is a monumental task, and there is literally no time left to wait.
According to the report, without aggressive and sustained mitigation policies, transportation-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions could increase at a faster rate than any other industry sector between now and 2050. As a result, curbing emissions in the transportation sector – produced by a wide variety of modes including cars, trucks, aircraft, ships, and trains – has become an urgent priority in the race to mitigate climate change.
Reducing Transportation Emissions is Highly Complex
Due to the fact that it is almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels, the transportation sector is responsible for nearly a quarter of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, according to the IPCC. And the United Nations notes that the industry’s emissions have more than doubled since 1970, with approximately 80% of the increase caused by road vehicles. To help paint a clearer picture, let’s look at some of the facts via the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and All Things Supply Chain:
· Transportation accounts for 29% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions (2019)
· Domestic freight (trucking, freight rail, commercial aircraft, and ships and other boats) accounts for approximately 38% of total transportation emissions in the U.S.
· Air cargo emits 10 to 50 times more CO2 than sea freight
According to the International Transport Forum, without urgent action, transportation’s portion of global emissions could increase from 29% to 40% by 2030. And since demand for transport will continue to grow in the coming decades, emissions could increase by 60% by 2050. Meanwhile, the World Bank reports that global passenger traffic is expected to grow 50% between 2015 and 2030, and global freight volume could spike by as much as 70%. These potential outcomes would significantly hamper our collective ability to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or below. Further complicating the issue, because transport relies on oil for 92% of its energy, it is especially difficult to decarbonize.
Consumer Demand is Driving Increased Emissions Across Supply Chains
A significant portion of current demand for transport is originating from developing countries. According to the World Bank, in many developing countries, transport-related emissions are increasing at a much faster rate than GDP growth. Between 1990-2018, these emissions increased six times faster than GDP in Nepal, and twice as fast in Nigeria, Iran, Croatia, and Guatemala.
Emissions are also dependent on the mode of transportation, and the mode of transportation is highly dependent on the products and goods traveling across global supply chains. For example, air transportation is the most highly polluting as measured by CO2 production per unit of goods transported. Trucking is the next “worst”, with rail being more energy efficient (less than 50% emissions as compared to trucks), and with ocean as the best (less than 20% of trucks). In fact, the rule of thumb is slow = low, as the primary reason for using air over other modes is speed. This “need for speed” is driven by three primary factors: potential spoilage of product; weak planning and forecasting (which drives the need to expedite shipments); and increased consumer expectations and demands (“next-day is better than two-day”).
Proposed Solutions to Drastically Reduce Emissions
There are several global mandates and initiatives currently being developed and enacted that aim to reduce worldwide greenhouse gas emissions – such as the formation of the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), which will consolidate the voluntary guidance that currently exists so that businesses will have global consistency and clarity to optimize operations for sustainability. In addition, the United Nations has launched the Race to Zero campaign to drive companies, cities, regions, and financial and educational institutions to halve global emissions by 2030.
Meanwhile, the EPA has developed several programs focused on emissions reduction in the transportation sector. The EPA and Department of Transportation have partnered to set emissions and fuel economy standards for the heaviest emitters in the transportation sector, including cars, light trucks, and heavy-duty trucks. The standards feature ambitious targets, including:
· Reducing six billion metric tons of emissions over the lifetimes of passenger vehicles and trucks sold in model years 2012-2025
· Nearly doubling the fuel efficiency of these vehicles
· Reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 270 million metric tons over the life of heavy-duty vehicles built under the program
· Reducing the United States’ dependence on oil
Finally, technologies exist today that help businesses monitor emissions produced by their transportation operations, and these technologies are also capable of recommending steps businesses can take to drive down emissions – such as identifying more efficient routes for their vehicle fleets.
No Time to Wait
Efficient transportation is a key factor in the health of any economy, and based on the IPCC’s latest report, one of the most urgent parts of that equation is reducing the transportation sector’s impact on emissions and the environment. There are significant challenges, but through the global mandates that are beginning to make traction – combined with the technologies available today – businesses and governments can help make tangible progress. Mitigating climate change is one of the most urgent priorities facing humanity today, and the time to act is now.
