Benedict Cumberbatch is expected to win an Oscar, it seems increasingly unlikely that Prince Harry will follow his brother’s example and get engaged and there is little chance of finding life on Mars - at least that is the opinion of a wide ranging survey of what Britons think will happen during 2015.
The poll by Ipsos Mori and the Guardian detects a definite sense of mild, if unfocused pessimism.
Just about the only thing those surveyed were definitely upbeat about are the prospects of Sherlock actor Cumberbatch, with more than half of people (56%)thinking he will an Academy awared next year for his role as Alan Turing in The Imitation Game.
The poll of 1,012 adults was conducted between 13 and 15 December, crossing over slightly with last week’s siege in a central Sydney coffee house in which two hostages and the self-declared Islamist militant holding them were killed. With that incident being widely reported, it may have impacted the finding that 49% of people believe a “major” terrorist attack will take place in the UK during 2015 - of which 15% believe it is very likely. A further 45% say it is unlikely, with 6% not sure.
The proportion believing scientists will discover evidence of life on Mars in 2015 has fallen sharply in the past year, with 81% believing it to be unlikely, compared to 62% a year ago. The polling though preceded the announcement by Nasa last Tuesday that its Curiosity rover had detected methane on the planet, fuelling speculation that the gas might be coming from a form of life.
The low-level gloominess even extends to the royals. The number who expect Prince Harry to get engaged in the next 12 months has fallen from a year ago, from 44% to 37%; 19% don’t know or don’t have an opinion.
Neither do many rate England’s chances in the Rugby World Cup highly, even with the tournament taking place on home soil, with 53% saying it is unlikely the team can win compared to 29% who judge it likely.
There is some though some buoyancy with the economy: 30% said they believed the number of unemployed people would rise this year compared to 33% who think it will fall. A year ago, 44% expected unemployment to rise in 2014 and in 2013 the figure was 56%.
A total of 21% expect their own standard of living to increase in 2015 while 17% think it will fall; this is a small increase on last year, however, when the comparable figures were 19% and 17%. The year before that, 18% expected their standard of living to rise, while almost a third, 31%, thought it would fall.
On inflation, those surveyed believe almost exactly what they did last year, with 52% predicting inflation will rise in 2015 and 36% thinking it will stay about the same, numbers unchanged from a year ago (there was a slight decrease, from 10% to 8%, of those expecting it to fall). But the proportion expecting mortgage interest rates to rise in the coming 12 months rose to 57% compared to 52% a year ago and 38% the year before that.
More cheery still is the news for Ukip. Five months before the general election, more than half (57%) of those polled believe it is very or fairly likely that the party will win 10 or more seats at the general election. This finding may or may not be connected to the one that says 47% of those questioned believe the number of immigrants coming into the country will rise in 2015, compared to 39% who think it will fall.
Labour may be alarmed that almost three quarters, or 73%, think it likely the party will poll fewer votes than the SNP in Scotland at the general election. Unhappily for the ambitions of Boris Johnson, two thirds of the country (65%) think it is fairly or very unlikely that he will become leader of the Conservative party in the coming year.
Methodology: Ipsos Mori interviewed a representative sample of 1,012 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 13-15 December 2014. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
