Nov. 02--The Tribune will be doing position-by-position analyses for the 2015 Cubs. We start with the starting pitchers.
2015 statistics
Jake Arrieta: 33 starts, 22-6, 1.77 ERA, 229 innings, three shutouts, four complete games, 236 strikeouts, 150 hits allowed, 10 home runs surrendered.
Jon Lester: 32 starts, 11-12, 3.34 ERA, 205 innings, one complete game, 207 strikeouts, 183 hits allowed, 16 home runs surrendered.
Jason Hammel: 31 starts, 10-7 record, 3.74 ERA, 170 2/3 innings, 172 strikeouts, 158 hits allowed, 23 home runs surrendered.
Kyle Hendricks: 32 starts, 8-7 record, 3.95 ERA, 180 innings, 167 strikeouts, 166 hits allowed, 17 home runs surrendered.
Dan Haren: 11 starts (with Cubs), 4-2 record, 4.01 ERA, 58 1/3 innings, 44 strikeouts, 58 hits allowed, 10 home runs surrendered.
Contract status for 2016
Arrieta: Arbitration eligible
Lester: signed through 2020
Hammel: signed through 2016
Hendricks: under team control
Haren: retired
Breakdown
In his end-of-the-season address, President Theo Epstein was forthcoming in expressing the need to add starting pitching while pointing out the Cubs' starters were third in the National League with a 3.36 ERA. The need for starting pitching is obvious, but the Cubs must plan carefully with Arrieta eligible for free agency after 2017, if both sides can't reach an agreement on an extension, and Lester turning 36 in the final year of his contract and Hammel eligible for free agency after 2016.
After the season, Lester expressed disappointment in his performance, and the expectation is that he'll be more comfortable in every facet, from switching teams, leagues and spring training surroundings. He'll be able to pace himself more wisely and avoid the dead-arm symptoms that hampered him at the start of the season.
The Cubs' promising future under Joe Maddon with an upgraded Wrigley Field can't hurt their chances of courting David Price, who will have multiple lucrative options. Part of the Cubs' 18-month window to acquire impact pitching included the pursuit of starters not eligible for free agency for at least two seasons. This is as essential as signing a front-line free agent like Price or Jordan Zimmermann (formerly of the Nationals), who has Midwestern roots.
The Cubs could lose their first pick in the 2016 draft should they sign a marquee free agent, but it won't be as costly since that pick is toward the end of the first round.
Expect the Cubs to resume summer chats with the Padres (Tyson Ross) and the Indians (Carlos Carrasco). The Braves, who were out of playoff contention early, had one of their top scouts follow the Cubs during the final two weeks of the season and aren't afraid to move young pitching (as was the case with Alex Wood to the Dodgers last summer).
If the Cubs can strike a long-term extension with Arrieta that buys out a few years of free agency (a long shot), they could seek a free agent with a smaller commitment (in terms of years and money), such as John Lackey.
The Cubs were able to get 946 2/3 innings out of their starting pitchers during the season. That fell well short of Maddon's goal of 1,000, but remember he needed to manage with a greater sense of urgency in the final two months as the Cubs surged to a playoff berth.
But with Arrieta coming off a season-high in innings and the nucleus of a well-worked bullpen expected to return, the Cubs need a seasoned and experienced pitcher like Price or Zimmermann. They also have a surplus of infielders to entice an offense-needy team willing to deal a promising starting pitcher a few years away from free agency.
Injuries the last two seasons have harnessed the development of Pierce Johnson, who could be in line for a late second-half promotion if he continues to improve and stays healthy.
This marks an important time for the rotation in the organization, since many of the high-ceiling starting pitching prospects -- Duane Underwood, Dylan Cease, Justin Steele, Carson Sands, Bryan Hudson, Adbert Alzolay and Oscar De La Cruz -- are several years away from reaching the majors.
