Cuba's National Assembly of People's Power met Wednesday morning in Havana's Convention Palace to begin a process that is expected to culminate in the retirement of Raul Castro from the presidency and the selection of a successor who hadn't even been born at the time of the 1959 Cuban Revolution.
The transition marks not only a generational shift in power, but also will be the first time a non-Castro has occupied the presidency in more than 40 years. In the early years after the revolution, four men served as president _ some for just a matter of days _ before the Cuban Constitution was rewritten in 1976 and Fidel Castro became president for the next three decades. His younger brother Raul, 86, served two terms beginning in 2008 after taking over provisionally for an ailing Fidel in 2006.
The National Assembly, Cuba's parliament, is meeting at a time when Cuba faces an array of challenges from a limping economy, a dismal sugar harvest, and the near collapse of its Venezuelan benefactor to a deteriorating relationship with the United States and a restive younger population that wants a better quality of life and more opportunities.
Although Castro's likely successor, First Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel, represents a new generation, most observers don't expect dramatic changes from the Communist Party stalwart who will turn 58 on Friday. In fact, during its two-day session, the 605-member National Assembly has asked Cubans to comment on social media under #SomosContinuidad (We are continuity).
In the past year, the Cuba leadership has increasingly thrust Diaz-Canel, a former education minister, into the spotlight, making him the face of hurricane recovery efforts after Irma slammed the island last September, sending him on foreign trips and making him available for symbolic photo ops. But few Cubans know what to expect from the man who became first vice president of the Council of State and Council of Ministers in 2013 and has managed to survive the treacherous waters of Cuban politics for five years.
He had a reputation as being pragmatic and accessible when he was a party chief in both Villa Clara and Holguin provinces, and is viewed as someone who embraces new technology.
"There has to be a focus on ties to, links with the people _ to listen to the people, investigate the problems that exist and inspire debates about those problems," Diaz-Canel told reporters during recent voting for members of the National Assembly.
But how much Diaz-Canel will really be running the show remains to be seen. Castro is expected to remain as the head of the powerful Communist Party and if Cuban leadership "feels the need for Raul's firm hand, he can always exercise it as head of the party," said William LeoGrande, an American University government professor who has studied Cuba for decades.
"The significance of this event cannot be overstated. The new leadership is composed of individuals who did not participate directly in the armed insurrection against the prior government of Fulgencio Batista and whose life experience is vastly different from the founding members of the Cuban government," said Pedro Freyre, a Miami lawyer who has represented cruise lines and other U.S. companies that do business with Cuba. Ultimately, it "could have a profound impact on the direction of the country."
"The transition is nothing and it is everything. It's nothing because the system stays the same, but everything because the Cuban Revolution is built on the name Castro, the Castro brand," said Freyre, international practice chair at Akerman.
If Diaz-Canel is elevated, it will also be interesting to watch who is selected as his successor as first vice president of the Council of State and Council of Ministers. "If they put a traditional revolutionary in that spot, it's a further message that 'we're looking over your shoulder,'" said Freyre. "If they put a younger person in there, it is a clear passing of the baton."
Diaz-Canel is expected to continue the limited economic reform process begun under Raul Castro.
During Castro's tenure, Cuba became friendlier to foreign investment; began the process of turning state barber shops, beauty salons and other service industries into worker-run cooperatives, greatly expanded self-employment and allowed small business to form, permitted the buying and selling of real estate and cars, began leasing unused state land to farmers, and adopted a comprehensive tax code.
That's probably his greatest legacy, said LeoGrande. "He institutionalized an economic reform, which transformed the ideological foundation of the regime for 50 years from a highly centralized, state-driven economy that was not very successful at generating growth.
"He broke the psychological barrier with more market-oriented reforms," said LeoGrande, "but it is unfinished business." Currently the expansion of the private sector is on pause awaiting new regulations.
But the reform process doesn't go nearly far enough for some Cuban exiles, and the transition of power is not one that many Cuban Americans envisioned when they thought of a post-Castro Cuba.
Some say it is not a transition at all. Dozens of Cuban exiles demonstrated in Little Havana Sunday to protest what they said was merely shifting power from one dictator to another.
"Those who know the reality of Communist Cuba know that this so-called transfer of power from one tyrant to another is no watershed moment. It is more smoke and mirrors from the dictatorship," said South Florida Republican Rep. U.S. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen .
She said Raul Castro will continue to call all the shots. "Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic does not mean that the Cuban people are any closer to freedom than they were yesterday," said Ros-Lehtinen.
