"Charles Kennedy has four objectives for 2005: to quit smoking; to become a father; to win more seats; and, ideally, to hold the balance of power in the Commons. I expect him to achieve three of these," wrote Michael Brown in the Independent a year ago. Well, two out of four ain't bad ... but it ain't quite good enough, either.
Futurology is a science much in demand at this time of year, and we can expect a lot of it next week. It's worth bearing in mind, however, that political correspondents' predictions can be startlingly unreliable. No one predicted David Cameron's stratospheric rise a year ago, and one of the most astute commentators in Fleet Street thought the European constitution would bring down Tony Blair. Another was sure Ruth Kelly would introduce a school-leaving diploma, and David Blunkett was widely tipped to return to the cabinet - probably as deputy PM.
The hacks did get two things right, though: they predicted a May 5 election that Labour would win with a reduced majority. "Terror will never be far from the headlines," said the Telegraph, which proved sadly true. More crystal ball-gazing here.
But it would be wrong to upbraid Fleet Street without putting my own neck on the line, so here are my predictions for 2006. Kennedy to go in January; Menzies Campbell to replace him as a caretaker leader, in the style of Michael Howard; Blair hanging on for another year; Ruth Kelly to be demoted; and Hilary Benn to get a bigger job. (Incidentally, PoliticalBetting.com says today that George Osborne is 5/1 to be the next chancellor.) Anyone care to join me?
