Ted Cruz may never have stood much of a chance against Donald Trump in next week’s Republican primary, but his derisive comment about his opponent’s “New York values” – first made in January with an eye on voters in Iowa and New Hampshire – may have helped his rival seal the deal.
Trump currently stands at 55% in the polls in New York, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average, with Cruz on 18% and Ohio governor John Kasich ahead of him on 20%.
But the conservative Texas senator does have some supporters prepared to come out and back him in the Empire State. Midway down Long Island on Monday, fans turned out to see his wife, Heidi Cruz, and after months of Trump shelling Cruz with “Lyin’ Ted” insults, they were returning fire.
“He’s like a five-year-old,” said Jeanie Middleton of Trump. “He throws a tantrum if he doesn’t get his way.” Husband Bob chimed in: “People are angry with the government so now you have two anti-establishment candidates. [Democrat] Bernie [Sanders] says the system is rigged and Cruz is saying that, too, but Bernie wants to increase government and Ted Cruz wants to reduce it.”
Trump, he said emphatically, is not the answer. “He’s all over the place. He changes his mind every five minutes. Ted Cruz is the closest thing we’ve got to a comprehensive conservative.”
New York’s primary system is complicated. If a candidate gets more than 50% in a given New York district on Tuesday, he picks up all three delegates there. If not, the district is divided two-to-one with the runner-up. In all, 95 delegates are up for grabs. Trump currently has 743 and Cruz 545, with 1,237 needed to win.
But Cruz’s efforts to win support in the state have been falling flat. His criticism of Trump’s “New York values” backfired when his rival responded by raising the issue of 9/11; a campaign stop in the south Bronx misfired when more hecklers than supporters showed up.
Cruz headed to California this week, looking ahead to one of the next big contests, where polls suggest he stands a better chance of success. So it was his wife who came to canvas pockets of support in the blue-collar towns of mid-Long Island, and try to undo some of the damage he had done. (There are also other pockets, campaign officials say, upstate near Binghamton and Buffalo, and areas with a concentration of evangelicals.)
“I need to tell you how much I love New York,” the would-be first lady said. “I wanted to move here from six years old because this is where great things happen. You are survivors, you are leaders. New Yorkers make things happen.” Her first job was in the city, she said; it was the place where she had first paid rent and taxes.
Cruz’s Long Island supporters appeared to be divided into three camps: businesspeople who support reducing an onerous tax burden on employers; constitutional or Tea Party conservatives; and evangelicals motivated by religious and right-to-life issues.
“In a predominantly Democratic state, conservatives are quiet about who they are,” said Diane Manfredi. “We’re quiet because we get slammed by our governor, by the mayor. [New York governor Andrew] Cuomo said conservatives aren’t welcome. So they’re quiet until they get to the ballot box.” Her husband Neil, a financier, was pragmatic about Cruz’s chances. “New York is Trump’s home state so he’s supposed to win, but if Cruz has a good showing it’s going to help him.”
Lutheran pastor George Kirkup, attending with his wife Colleen and their four children, said his main concern was religious liberty. “I’m not convinced that Donald Trump really cares about unborn babies but I know that Cruz does,” he said. “It’s about constitutional rights. We’re not saying we want a theocracy but we believe religious liberty is embedded in the constitution, including for babies.”
“He’s a faith-based man,” said Wayne Ferguson, 23, a trainee minister. “We’ve lost a lot of religious freedom under Obama. If I deny gay marriage, I could get prosecuted. That’s bad for religious freedom.”
Yvonne Rivera and her friend Diane, who did not want to give her surname, said they were concerned about education. “He understands that the common core curriculum in public schools is basically a national takeover of the rights of teachers, schools and states to have any say in testing,” said Rivera. “Teachers feel very oppressed by the system, and the amount of data collection involved in common core is an invasion of privacy.”
But for many supporters, at least in Long Island, Ted Cruz’s candidacy is a matter of economic expediency. “Long Island is only 100 miles, but we are 117 municipalities and 987 separate taxing districts. So there’s a lot of duplication. It’s hard to take a risk here,” says building contractor David Zere, one of the organisers of the event.
Corporate and payroll taxes in the New York state are so high, he said, that his children would have to look out of state for work. “The unions are too powerful. We’re not competitive globally. We have to get back to conservative values and rugged individualism.”
The US was “in the midst of a grassroots movement of very angry taxpayers”, Zere said. “The Tea Party helped get conservative candidates elected, but they never came through. They didn’t address the immigration problem, and spending kept rising.
“So now people are just ‘Trump! Trump! Trump!’ They’re pissed, but they don’t have a thought-out plan.”
