1) Accurate kicking can put Lions on the front foot
Warren Gatland has denied this is a shadow Test side though it would seem his selections in three key positions – Nos 8, 9 and 10 – are likely to face the All Blacks. It is the first sight of Conor Murray and expect the Ireland scrum-half to box-kick to his heart’s content. Owen Farrell is likely to put boot to ball regularly too and while Taulupe Faletau does not have Billy Vunipola’s muscle he has the footwork to give his half-backs a platform. It is pretty basic stuff, but if the Lions execute it accurately it can be effective. Kick aimlessly however and the Crusaders will pull them apart.
2) Tourists could benefit from a little more needle in their play
The dazzling winning try and the late botched lineout deflected attention from it, but Pascal Gaüzère made some questionable calls on Wednesday and it was notable how accepting the Lions were. That is not to encourage back-chat, but it would be nice to see the tourists get a bit more angry. Gatland wants the Lions as good as gold off the pitch, but that doesn’t have to continue on it. One New Zealand columnist – not exactly known for sitting on the fence – has called on the Lions to “start a dirty war”. That may be pushing it, but a bit more needle would not go amiss.
3) Look to the scrum for clues of All Blacks’ strength
There are nine All Blacks in the Crusaders’ match-day squad, eight starting, including the whole tight five. Logic would appear to suggest then that whereas the Lions were on top at the scrum against the Blues, they may find it harder going in Christchurch. To suggest the Crusaders lack the Blues’ attacking firepower in the backs would be madness. Richie Mo’unga is in the form of his life at fly-half, out wide they have Seta Tamanivalu and George Bridge – one All Black and another in-waiting – as well as Israel Dagg at full-back. Do not expect any less stardust behind the Crusaders pack.
4) North’s introduction cannot come too soon
Playing on the wing for the Lions seems a bit of a poisoned chalice. Jack Nowell and Liam Williams struggled at Eden Park and it is damning of Gatland’s options out wide that George North is now effectively nailed on to start the first Test having not yet played a match. North’s introduction to the tour cannot come too soon for the Lions however. Four years ago, in Australia, Leigh Halfpenny was the man of the series, but North was the catalyst for the tourists’ victory. He has the size to keep New Zealand busy and the Lions must give him the ball.
5) Victory can only come if Lions lessen the penalty count
The script is becoming familiar and while you cannot blame the Lions for brushing off rusty performances or defeats in pursuit of the rewards they expect to eventually reap, it is important to remember that those improvements are not guaranteed. It is understandable to assume the Lions will get better as the tour goes on, but by no means certain and a defeat by the Crusaders makes it all the more difficult. Victory over the only unbeaten team in Super Rugby this season would be a huge boost, however but to do so they must stop giving away penalties. Thirteen against the Blues was far too a high a tally.
Five danger men facing the Lions
Joe Moody loosehead prop
A former wrestler, Moody has established himself in the New Zealand side after emerging during the 2015 World Cup and usurping fellow Crusader Wyatt Crockett. Solid scrummager with silky hands for a prop.
Sam Whitelock second row
Captain with two World Cup titles to his name, he was badly missed by New Zealand in Chicago. His lineout tussle with Alun Wyn Jones and George Kruis will be fascinating. Shows up in the loose prominently too.
Richie Mo’unga fly-half
Is enjoying a stunning season for the Crusaders now Dan Carter’s shadow no longer hangs over the No10 jersey and is unlucky to miss out for the All Blacks. Loves to play flat but can also guide his pack around the park well.
Jack Goodhue outside centre
Still 21 but called up as injury cover by the All Blacks, this has been a breakthrough campaign after injury problems last year. A powerful presence at centre, forming a slick partnership with Ryan Crotty, who is injured. A bright future beckons.
Israel Dagg full-back
Missed the 2015 World Cup but his return to form last year – often playing on the wing though he plays at full-back on Saturday – was extremely impressive. Dagg will need no second invitation to punish any loose kicking from the Lions.
