Plans for two new road bridges to cross the Thames in east London as part of mayor Ken Livingstone's transport strategy will, I believe, make congestion worse, increase noise, pollution and road traffic accidents. Arguments in favour of the bridges claim that they will create jobs and regenerate east London.
I was asked to evaluate plans for the bridges in my capacity as a transport consultant and my conclusion is that these outcomes are highly unlikely.
The new bridges are planned between Barking and Thamesmead, and North Greenwich and Silvertown and will cost £500m-£630m. One of them is the ill-fated east London river crossing thrown out some years ago. A third, rail-only bridge at Woolwich will cost £133m-264m. The mayor hopes that most of this cash will come from the private sector in the form of a public private partnership. Substantial public expenditure costs will go on preparing the schemes, consultancy fees, buying land, building road links to the new road bridges and associated infrastructure and paying the private companies whatever is agreed as a return on their capital investment.
Experience in the UK and throughout the developed world shows that regeneration does not necessarily follow on from projects like these. New bridges over the Clyde, the Humber and the Severn certainly have increased the amount of traffic pouring into local areas, but the traffic does not necessarily bring local jobs.
The effect in London is more likely to be negative, with new Thames crossings encouraging longer distance commuting by car. The only thing they bring with them is pollution and traffic congestion. Creating well-paid local jobs for local people needs investment in education, training, housing, energy conservation, waste management and social facilities.
The economics of the bridge plan are seriously flawed. Notwithstanding the private finance deal, there will be substantial public costs. These will be paid for by tolls on the new bridges and the existing Blackwall tunnel. But is it fair to institute toll crossings in a poor part of London and not further west where the affluence levels are much higher? Predicting toll revenues is also a risky business. Tolls on the new bridge between Denmark and Sweden are much lower than predicted. London could produce a double whammy with below target income from bridge tolls and much lower than predicted income from the road pricing scheme. Under these circumstances there would be a huge hole in the mayor's finances and very little cash left for much needed improvements to pavements, cycle routes, bus services and the underground. This is a huge gamble with the future of London's transport system.
Not only will the bridges make the problems of east London much worse, they will also throw away a significant opportunity for a genuinely community-based local development initiatives.
John Whitelegg is an independent transport consultant. His report on the effects of new Thames crossings for the Simon Wolff foundation is available from N19 3JP or by email at g.stern@virgin.net
