With the sudden arrival of the coronavirus, the Australian economy was turned on its head, with the rapid switch to government economic control and curtailment of personal and business freedoms.
Overnight, the economy fell off a cliff; with unemployment surpassing a million, the government paying half the wages of the private sector, and the budget plunging into deficit.
This pandemic crisis will have an endpoint after there is a widespread distribution of a coronavirus vaccine.
But can our hibernating society and economy be able to hold its breath for that long?
Even now, many businesses and some whole industries are on the brink of collapse.
With the government throwing massive amounts of money at this problem, what will the economy look like on the other side of this crisis?
By then a vast number of businesses will have disappeared, especially those involving discretionary spending such as leisure and travel.
Some industries, such as airlines and cruise ships, will become shadows of what they were.
A full economic recovery could be five to 10 years away.
Australia needs to look forward and be ahead of the curve with the creation of new industries where we may have a comparative advantage.
We should take the time now, and especially during a slow recovery, to completely rethink our economic policies, based on the vulnerabilities of the Australian economy exposed by this crisis.
We need to rethink our economic future.
The last time Australia was in such an existential crisis was during World War II.
The dominant economic model up to that time was Australia trading preferentially as a member of the British Empire.
With the sea lanes suddenly blocked by German and Japanese U-boats, our 1940s economy became highly vulnerable. There were massive shortages of vital supplies.
Following the war, there was a switch in policy to develop greater economic independence.
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New industries, such as metal smelting, car-making and electronics, were encouraged and supported by the government.
Also, further research capabilities were developed through the establishment of the CSIRO and the ANU research university.
By the 1980s, the economic lessons of the war years seemed to have been forgotten, as Australia increasingly played to its economic strengths such as minerals, agriculture and tourism.
A global economy and free trade became the fashion, and there is no doubt that this did lead to rapidly increasing wealth and the most significant reduction in poverty in world history.
But it was a tender trap.
The rapid rise in Chinese manufacturing created in Australia a massive export and import dependence.
The economic consequence of this over the past two decades has seen some strategic industries such as smelting, car making and textiles fold.
To restart some of these older manufacturing industries would now be impossible. Australia needs to look forward and be ahead of the curve with the creation of new industries where we may have a comparative advantage.
In a few years, there will be business opportunities in smart hi-tech sectors that don't exist today. Here, Australia should play to its strengths in science and technology.
For example, we are world leaders in medical research, and the government must give the industrial spinoffs from this and other new sunrise industries proactive support.
Australia must also rapidly diversify our economic partnerships for both our exports and imports and stop being so dependent on one foreign economy.
Twenty-five years ago, I was on a delegation to India, which needed a lot of help with updating its coal and electricity production.
Here in the Hunter, we have great expertise in both fields. But when I returned, I could not find any interest locally or nationally in pursuing such a partnership with India.
Back in 1996, China was seen as the future.
The time is now ripe to forge and grow new trade options, especially with India and other emerging economies, such as Indonesia and Brazil.
Diversifying our industrial base and widening our economic partnerships will make the Australian economy more independent and may even help inoculate our economy from future pandemics.
