LONDON _ President Vladimir Putin's threat to retaliate after what he called Ukrainian "terror" in Crimea _ annexed by Russia from its neighbor two years ago _ has raised the prospect of a return to all-out war. Following are some questions and answers about the conflict and where it might be headed.
Question: What triggered the latest flare up?
Answer: Russia says that Ukraine deployed agents to destabilize the Black Sea peninsula and alleges that two of its servicemen were killed in shootouts with them. Ukraine denies the accusations and officials in Kiev warned they may be fabricated pretext for an attack. The claims haven't been corroborated and the situation is complicated by a lack of witnesses and the absence of media on the scene.
Q: What's the situation in eastern Ukraine now?
A: The conflict that erupted in Ukraine's easternmost regions after Russian-backed President Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown 2 { years ago hasn't gone away. While a peace accord signed in February 2015 stemmed the worst of the fighting, regular clashes between the army and the insurgents have resulted in a growing number of deaths. July was the deadliest month in almost a year, according to Ukraine's military.
In the meantime, Crimea remains under Russian control, though that state of affairs is only recognized by seven other countries, including North Korea and Venezuela. While the U.S. and the European Union say they'll maintain sanctions over the annexation until the territory is returned, there's no sign of that ever happening.
Q: How much progress has been made in achieving peace?
A: The leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France stayed up all night to seal last year's peace accord in the Belarusian capital of Minsk. While the deal halted heavy fighting and set out a path to reconciliation, little has been achieved since. Weaponry initially pulled back has been returned to the battlefield, a full prisoner exchange hasn't taken place and the two sides are at loggerheads over elections and the constitutional status of the rebel-held lands. The United Nations says the death toll is nearing 10,000.
Diplomacy continues in the form of regular meetings and telephone conversations between Ukrainian, Russian, German and French officials _ the so-called Normandy format. Envoys also gather frequently in Minsk. Progress, however _ such as the release of Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko _ has been scant. Russia has also pulled back its initial support for another four-way meeting during next month's Group of 20 meeting in China.
Q: What could be behind the latest tensions?
A: There's no shortage of explanations.
Russia, which is gearing up for parliamentary elections in September, says Ukraine wants to destroy key Crimean infrastructure and distract its citizens from its own economic travails. It accuses its neighbor of being uninterested in a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Ukraine says Russia is fabricating a reason to attack it.
Outside the official barbs, analysts list several possible scenarios: Putin may be seeking to show Crimeans how important Russia is to their well-being before elections, or trying to convince the West that Ukraine isn't committed to the Minsk peace process whose implementation is a prerequisite for sanctions relief.
Some draw disturbing parallels to 2008, when a five-day war broke out between Russia and Georgia during the Olympic Games in Beijing.
Q: How concerned should we be?
A: Russia says the deaths of its servicemen won't go without a response, though what form that response takes remains unclear. Putin, who's already enacted a host of economic penalties against Ukraine, has spoken of enhanced security measures.
While the U.S. and the EU have urged calm heads, reports suggest that Russia is bolstering its military presence on its neighbor's border. It's already been conducting drills nearby. Ukraine has put its military on high alert. Investors are worried, pushing Ukrainian bond yields to a six-month high.
Q: Where do we go from here?
A: Mediation by the U.S. and EU will now be key to ensuring tensions don't spiral into more deadly violence. The region is awash with military personnel and hardware from both nations, as well as the two rebel armies based around the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.
