You wouldn’t topple too many people with feathers after telling them that Australian pundits are nominating Australia’s cricket team as favourites for a World Cup in Australia. Still, it’s interesting how confidently the claim is being made. If favouritism comes from reflection rather than reflex, there’s room to question the host nation’s status.
Consider some names from the 2003 squad: Ponting, Gilchrist, Hayden, Bevan, McGrath, Martyn, Symonds, Lehmann, Lee, Bichel, Hogg, Gillespie, with a certain S.K. Warne ditched at the last minute after a diuretic dalliance. Any of those players would have provided a reasonable justification for backing their team’s prospects.
Australia’s current squad, conversely, contains no player recognised as a bona fide 50-over star. Only Michael Clarke, Brad Haddin, Mitchell Johnson and Shane Watson have played more than 100 one-day internationals, and none of that quartet has been a consistent recent presence. Of Australia’s 86 matches since the last World Cup, Watson’s tally of 50 is the highest of the four. Whatever their records, they have to prove themselves in the here and now.
Aaron Finch is the closest to a specialist, having scored five centuries in 18 months and appeared in 84 per cent of games since his debut. The catch is that this only leaves him with 41 matches to his name. David Warner and Steve Smith have just reached 50 – the newly ignited Test stars remain unproven in ODIs, with no consistent scores in the format until the last couple of months. For Glenn Maxwell that’s more like the last couple of weeks, and after 41 games he’s being asked to play as a top-six batsman and most often the primary spinner.
Mitchell Starc (33 games) is supposed to provide wicket-taking swing at the top of the innings and controlled overs under assault at the end. James Faulkner (38) is a finisher with bat and ball, even as he recovers from a side strain. Xavier Doherty (59) has spent years as a one-day specialist without racking up bulk experience. Pace-bowling menace and control will be demanded from Patrick Cummins (eight games), Josh Hazlewood (10) and Mitchell Marsh (14).
All that is before we get to Cricket Australia’s captaincy debacle, with Clarke picked as nominal leader despite the likelihood that he’ll miss games, and George Bailey asked to fill in while being denied ownership of the side or security about his place within it. Clarke effectively doesn’t play ODI cricket: of 29 games since the 2013 Ashes tour, he’s started six and finished four, so it rankles to see him stepping in when he deems the tournament important enough. His record is good, but largely the work of a younger player.
Bailey finds himself out of runs at the worst time, making his potential replacement by Clarke more formality than injustice. But that leaves the prospect of a Clarke re-injury deep in the tournament requiring Bailey to parachute in for a final. Bailey needs big runs in the opening game against England, but for a man who has captained more games than he’s played under Clarke, the position he’s been put in is grossly unfair.
Thus ends the case for pessimism. The chirpier route is Australia’s recent form and current ability. Despite inexperience Australia went undefeated through the Tri-Series against India and England, closed out tight contests to beat South Africa 4-1 in November, and beat Pakistan 3-0 in the United Arab Emirates in October. They take on the World Cup in home conditions with home support.
The number of games that Faulkner wins off his own bat is astonishing. In his 12 run chases he’s been not out eight times, topped 50 four times, and has a second-innings average of 109.5. Eight of his innings have led to wins, six times he’s hit the wining runs, and four times he’s done it with an over or less to spare. He has a career average of 48, a career strike rate of 111, and holds the record for the fastest ODI hundred by an Australian. It’s a ludicrous set of statistics for a No8. He’s also been Australia’s most effective death bowler in the past year, taking more wickets than the next four combined.
Maxwell has emerged from the brain-fade of a Big Bash League season and has finally got his groove back: 136 from 89 balls in the PM’s XI game, 95 from 98 in the Tri-Series final, then 122 retired from 57 in the practice match against India. Along with Warner and Smith he not only forms a trio of in-form attacking batsmen, but one of the best groups of fieldsmen in world cricket.
Then there’s the pace attack, with Starc’s in-form swing, Johnson’s destructive capabilities, Hazlewood’s accurate bounce and Cummins ticking past 150 kilometres per hour. Coach Darren Lehmann has insisted on picking bowlers who can reach top speed, and the selection looks imposing.
But pace can be a liability when batting sides take advantage, and Australia’s chances might come down to that. A bad day on a fast wicket, and instead of blowing teams away, your quicks can take bugger-all and go for eight an over. Stack a team with them and you’re short of alternatives. A similar rule applies to aggressive strokemakers: from Finch to Faulkner, there’s not a lot of restraint. Australia will play furious cricket and be great to watch, but they’re playing a high-stakes game. Along the way there’s likely to be a day that doesn’t go to plan.
