Consumer price index data was tamer than expected in May, with core goods prices flat even as Trump tariffs were expected to begin stoking inflation. S&P 500 futures climbed after the CPI, tacking on gains after a three-session win streak, with Tesla a top early gainer. President Donald Trump said that a tentative U.S.-China agreement reached late Tuesday provides for a 55% tariff, though that apparently includes 25% from his first term.
Today's CPI inflation data won't have much impact on next week's Federal Reserve meeting, in which markets see zero chance of a rate cut. However, CPI and producer price index data out today and tomorrow may influence updated Fed policymaker projections for inflation and interest rates that will be issued next Wednesday at 2 p.m.
9:00 a.m. ET
Wall Street Reaction To CPI
"Tariffs aren't having a large immediate impact because companies have been using existing inventories or slowly adjusting prices due to uncertain demand," wrote Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global multi-asset co-chief investment officer at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "While we might see some price increases on goods later, service prices are expected to remain stable, suggesting any rise in inflation is likely to be temporary."
8:53 a.m. ET
Updated Fed Rate-Cut Odds
Markets still see zero chance of a rate cut at the June 18 Fed meeting. Odds of a rate cut on July 30 nudged up to 16.5% from 14.5% after the CPI inflation data.
For the Sept. 17 meeting, odds of a rate cut now stand at 70%, up from 60% before the inflation report.
Odds of 50 basis points in cuts for the full year rose to 72% from 59%.
8:49 a.m. ET
Airfares, Hotel Rates Fall Again
Softness in tourism industries has been a key to this year's moderating inflation trend. Both hotel and motel room rates (down 0.1% in May) and airline fares (down 2.7%) fell for a third straight month. Over the past 12 months, hotel and motel room rates are down 1.7% while airfares have fallen 7.3%.
8:45 a.m. ET
Futures Rise Slightly On Tame CPI
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% following the CPI inflation report after being down slightly before the 8:30 a.m. ET release. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.44% vs. Tuesday's 4.47% after rising to 4.45% before the CPI.
8:40 a.m. ET
Tame Goods Prices
The real surprise was the absence of goods inflation in May. New vehicle prices were flat. Used car and truck prices fell 0.5%. Apparel prices fell 0.4%.
8:37 a.m. ET
CPI Inflation Data
The overall CPI rose 0.1% on the month and 2.4% from a year ago, cooler than estimates of a 0.2% monthly rise and 2.5% annual inflation rate.
The core CPI was similarly cool, rising 0.1% in May compared to 0.3% forecasts. The 12-month inflation rate held at 2.8%, defying expectations of a rise to 2.9%.
CPI Inflation Expectations
Wall Street economists expect the overall CPI to rise 0.2% in May, but the tame year-ago reading means the 12-month inflation rate is seen rising to 2.5% from 2.3% in April.
The core CPI, excluding food and energy, should rise 0.3%, lifting the 12-month core CPI inflation rate to 2.9% from 2.8%.
Nomura economist David Self wrote in a June 6 note that core goods prices likely rose 0.28% in May, up from 0.06% in April. "Inventory buildup ahead of tariff announcements and uncertainty over where tariff rates may settle may have postponed price increases," he wrote. "We continue to expect tariffs to lead to elevated inflation readings in the summer."
Meanwhile, easing price pressures for lodging and air travel likely held down services inflation, he says.
Fed Rate-Cut Outlook
Markets are pricing in just a 0.1% chance of a rate cut at the June 18 Fed meeting. Odds of a rate cut at the July 30 meeting have tumbled to 14.5% from 28.5% a week ago, as U.S.-China trade talks have eased fears that Beijing's block of rare earth exports will hit the brakes on manufacturing of autos, high-tech and defense gear.
Markets are pricing in 60% odds that the Fed will resume rate cuts by the Sept. 17 meeting. For the full year, markets see a fairly close call between 50 basis points in rate cuts (59% odds) and at most 25 basis points in cuts (39% odds).
S&P 500
S&P 500 futures are dipping 0.1% in early Wednesday stock market action. The S&P 500 rallied 0.55% on Tuesday for a third-straight advance, finishing just 1.7% below its all-time closing high on Feb. 19.
Late Tuesday, U.S. and China said they reached a preliminary "framework." Trump said the accord, which needs President Xi Jinping's approval, will set 55% tariffs on Chinese goods, up from 30% currently. Beijing will continue to impose a 10% tariffs on American wares.
Trump said the accord addresses concerns about China's rare earths exports. It's unclear if China won eased chip export rules.
Tesla stock rose about 2% early Wednesday, continuing to rebound after last Thursday's dive. CEO Musk set June 22 as the tentative date for the Tesla robotaxi launch in Austin.
Be sure to read IBD's The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.
