Extending the Covid vaccine to all over-12s would save thousands of adult Brits’ lives this winter, a study has predicted.
New modelling suggests it would cut Covid hospitalisations by 16% and deaths by 15% in a winter wave, compared to the current policy of jabbing over-16s and vulnerable kids aged 12 to 15.
The findings have added to pressure from Tory ministers for experts to approve vaccinations for all children 12 and over.
NHS chiefs have been told to prepare to jab those children on school grounds, with parental consent, from “early September” if a rollout is approved.
Yet the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) is not widely expected to make its final decision for at least another week.
JCVI experts are still looking into a tiny number of cases of heart inflammation in children. They are also weighing up any risks to children - who rarely get seriously ill with Covid - against the wider benefit of vaccination to society.
The new study led by Dr David Strain, of Exeter Medical School, compared the government’s recent vaccination policy to an alternative where all children aged 12 or over can be jabbed.
Dr Strain told the Mirror the vast majority of the cut in deaths and hospitalisations would be in adults, due to fewer children spreading the virus .
He explained: “Most of this benefit from vaccinating children is a benefit that’s received by society at large.”
But Dr Strain also argued a rollout would benefit kids directly by cutting long Covid - which he said may affect around 4% of children who catch the virus.
His paper - which has not yet been peer-reviewed - claimed if vaccine uptake was 75% among over-12s, it could cut the number of predicted UK Covid deaths by 2,000 this winter - or more in a bigger wave.
In a “base case” winter wave with an R number of 1.4, deaths between mid-July and December 31 would fall from 13,628 to 11,540.
With an R of 1.7 deaths would fall from 36,731 to 28,792, and with an R of 2.1 they would fall from 117,717 to 107,652.
These figures are already out of date because the researchers compared jabs for over-12s with the government’s previous policy - offering jabs to all over-18s, and vulnerable children aged 12 to 17.
Since then, the government has changed its policy and extended jabs to all over-16s, while keeping them to vulnerable children aged 12 to 15.
But Dr Strain told the Mirror extending the vaccine to all over-12s would still save thousands of lives compared to the policy that exists now.
In updated figures, he predicted it would cut hospitalisations by 16%, long Covid by 25% and deaths by 15%. In the study, before 16-year-olds were offered the jab, reductions were modelled at 21%, 27% and 18% respectively between between July 19 and December 31.
The researchers also modelled a scenario where all children aged five and over got the jab - claiming it could cut Covid deaths by 57%. However, this has not widely been proposed, nor have regulators approved it.
The study was based on modelling which predicted 1,400 people a day could enter hospital this winter and 150 could die at the next peak.
Tory MPs have ramped up pressure on the JCVI to make a decision on kids’ jabs, with David Jones telling the Mail on Sunday: “It is welcome that preparations are now well under way to jab 12- to-15-year-olds.
“But there is a danger of missing the boat, given children will very shortly be returning to school.”
But JCVI members are still split over the complex balance of risk and the mass of scientific evidence. It is thought they will meet in the coming week.
