The Prime Minister’s distancing herself from being the one who decides when and how New Zealand opens its borders. But the reality is it’s on her, writes political editor Jo Moir.
“Decisions on Covid should not be political” – it’s a phrase Jacinda Ardern has used often and as recently as Wednesday and Thursday this week.
Yet, when Sir David Skegg formally announced on Thursday the advice he and his team had provided the Government on how to safely reconnect with the world, he mentioned more than once that the decisions from here on out are political.
For all intents and purposes Skegg has tapped out of the decision-making, something he says New Zealanders would expect.
“You wouldn’t want a number of professors of preventative medicine deciding whether or not you can go out of the country or not.
“That is a political decision,’’ Skegg told Newsroom.
“We’re a democracy, and ministers have to make trade-offs and balance health against social and economic priorities. I would certainly not favour that some technocrats should decide that – it is a political decision.’’
Ardern insists her Government’s Covid response and recovery path has been dictated by the “best evidence we have about how to protect people's lives and livelihoods’’.
The reality is health and science advice only go so far, and ultimately it then becomes about votes at the Cabinet table, which in reality are influenced by Ardern.
That’s evidenced in the fact that even Doctor Ashley Bloomfield has made recommendations - like rolling back masks on public transport and to close the borders to New Zealanders in March last year - both of which were turned down by Ardern and her ministers.
The Government relies on bringing the so-called team of five million along with them and that means tapping into what New Zealanders are feeling and the overall mood of the nation.
Pollsters have previously told Newsroom there is a strong 'Fortress New Zealand' mentality about keeping the borders closed and the virus out.
There's no doubt that mood within focus groups would have significantly fed into what some saw as the Government dragging its feet on opening the trans-Tasman bubble.
Labour has a majority government because of the support and trust in their ability to manage the Covid pandemic.
That support came from much more than just traditional Labour voters and the party will want to hold onto that at the 2023 election.
Keeping hold of voters Labour peeled off National means balancing Fortress New Zealand supporters alongside the business community and its insistence the country open back up to the world.
Thursday's decision to trial self-isolation at home with employers wanting to send staff overseas for no more than three weeks, followed by opening up next year to vaccinated travellers, is a nod to the business community.
Former Air New Zealand chief executive and Covid business advisor, Rob Fyfe, says the pilot trial and plans to open to vaccinated travellers is positive but also warns next year could be much more gloomy overall.
With the borders shut this past 18 months, Fyfe says the vast majority of New Zealanders have continued to have a very healthy economy with "lots of money sloshing around making us feel pretty good’’.
“I feel like we’re in a honeymoon phase and it’s going to be a lot tougher next year.
“We’re seeing inflation emerge and all sorts of supply chain issues. I think everyone will start to realise that if businesses struggle because of closed borders, it will have a flow-on effect to people's livelihoods and jobs and sense of security,’’ he told Newsroom.
The business community has had its issues with the closed border and Fyfe was quick to say he would have liked to have seen New Zealand use its success better.
“I would have liked to have seen us take greater opportunity of people that not only want to come here because they’re wealthy, but people who could have come here to create opportunities for the New Zealand tech sector and so on.’’
There is already plenty of scepticism about the self-isolation trial - not surprising considering its complete failure the first time round.
But Ardern says businesses will have "skin in the game'' to make it work.
She will happily name - and no doubt shame - those who don't keep a check on their staff getting the privilege to travel abroad and not face 14 days in managed isolation on their return.
Ultimately though if the pilot trial fails, or Delta strikes New Zealand hard when the border eases, those who have been firmly camped in Fortress New Zealand will be pointing their blame at the top.
