Experts from Edinburgh University have warned the UK 'may not be over the worst' of the covid-19 pandemic as patient numbers and deaths remain "stubbornly high".
The number of new cases of covid-19 recorded each day in the UK has averaged between 30,000 and 40,000 for much of the past month, and has not dropped below 25,000 a day since the start of July.
The rate of new cases in the UK currently stands at 357.5 per 100,000 people, up slightly week-on-week from 312.9 – but this masks different trends across the country.
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All regions of England are currently reporting a rise in the case rates, while Wales has seen its rate hit a record high in the past few days, according to analysis by the PA news agency.
By contrast, rates for Scotland and Northern Ireland are now falling, after peaking at or near record levels in recent weeks.
Professor Mark Woolhouse of Edinburgh University told The Guardian : “Unfortunately, our vaccination programme has stalled and rates are regularly dropping below 100,000 doses a day – that’s lower than many other countries, including many in Europe. I fear we are now storing up trouble for the future."
A total of 4,127 deaths were reported in September of people who died within 28 days of testing positive for covid-19, compared with 2,883 in August, 1,478 in July and just 358 in June.
However, those under the age of 30 have seen infection rates moving in the 'right direction' after previously driving new highs in the summer months.
Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor in cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, said: "A few months ago, this [20 to 29]age group was driving surging transmission rates.
“Now they have one of the lowest rates of all age groups, similar to retirees. This seems likely due to the success of vaccination reducing infections in this age group, who are increasingly protected.”
