Covid is "running out of steam" in areas where the Delta variant has run riot, encouraging figures suggest - although UK holiday hotspots are recording a rise in cases.
Optimistic experts believe that low hospitalisations are a sign the virus is becoming "milder", despite there being an estimated 20,000 new symptomatic cases a day.
Hotspots in North West England and Scotland are "continuing to plateau", according to the Zoe Covid study.
However some places popular with holidaymakers such as Cornwall are recording "rapidly increasing cases".
Prof Tim Spector, from King's College London, who leads the study, said low levels of hospitalisations and death despite rising cases suggested the virus was "getting milder".
It also found that people who had received both doses of a vaccine had a one in 13,506 chance of infection each day - compared with one in 1,664 among those who have not been jabbed.
It is estimated that there are 15,099 cases per day among unvaccinated people, compared to 4,023 people who have had at least one jab.
Prof Spector added: "The ray of sunshine is when we look at the previous hotspots – ones driving this real wave in the North West of England and Scotland – we’re seeing clear signs that they are running out of steam, which is good news."
Latest data suggest the R rate, which measures the spread of the virus, has fallen from 1.2 to 1.1 in the past week - meaning 10 infected people are estimated to pass it on to a further 11.
The data shows 2.7 per cent of unvaccinated people who were surveyed tested positive - a rise from two per cent a week earlier.
But just 0.17 per cent of people who have had both doses of a vaccine tested positive.
Prof Spector said: "This is really low and a 20-fold difference between these groups.
"This shows that vaccination really is working against this nasty Delta variant."
Around one in 131 people would test positive for the virus in the North West, the study estimates, with 3,984 cases per day.
This figure is one in 121 people in Scotland, where there are an estimated 3,716 cases per day.
Across the UK, one person in every 264 is believed to be infected with Covid-19.
Prof Spector said: “Zoe Covid Study data this week shows rates in former hotspots, such as Scotland and the North West of England, continuing to plateau.
"At the same time, top UK holiday destinations like Cornwall are emerging as new areas with rapidly increasing cases.
"I think this is down to a number of factors, including the sudden influx of holidaymakers over half term, as well as the recent G7 summit and a previously unexposed local population.
"We need to remain vigilant of these UK holiday destinations as summer holidays approach, and ensure that we minimise outbreaks by following government guidelines."
