The fall in Covid cases and deaths has stopped and infections are rising again, according to a SAGE expert.
We are now seeing a rate of around 10,000 Covid deaths a month, and it will get worse after Christmas - according to Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a member of Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).
Talking in a personal capacity, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “The downward trend that happened after the higher tiers and lockdown has now stopped, cases are going up.
“(There are) 350, 400 deaths a day in the UK – that’s about 10,000 a month. And these are real deaths. These are extra deaths that would not have happened normally.
“They are from Covid, they are not just with Covid.”
Prof Spiegelhalter said: “I am sure people wanted a downward trend before Christmas to produce a, kind of, buffer before the Christmas season, because there is bound to be some effect.
“Now, I wouldn’t want to say what the size of that effect is going to be because it depends crucially on people’s behaviour.
“And, how much they obey the rules and are sensible.”
Asked about why there would be a Christmas impact on Covid, he told Today: “Because there will be more travel.
“People will be mixing. And we can just see how behaviour just influences things.”
He told the BBC: “This could be just a blip, and it might not be that big, I wouldn’t want to say.
“I think we need to look beyond that towards the whole winter, I think.
“We can’t make this disappear and we can’t let it get out of control. And, it won’t get out of control… that won’t be allowed to happen. So, it’s keeping a lid on it.”
