London and Essex are among the areas at risk of being bumped up to Tier 3 when the Government reviews England's local lockdown system next week.
It appears several places could finally escape Tier 3 restrictions for the first time in weeks or months after rates plunged, in some places by more than half.
A Mirror analysis of coronavirus rates since November 26 - when the new tiers were assigned by Matt Hancock in the House of Commons under a revamped system - reveals which places could be moved up or down, or remain in their existing tier on December 16.
Infection rates are plunging in many Tier 3 areas, including Manchester, Hull and the North East, where local authorities are hoping to be moved down after weeks in the toughest category.
Some have dropped more than others and it is not clear how much rates must fall by for the Government to move areas down a tier.
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Since the Government has revamped the system, regions have been put in tiers together, rather than being divided by town or council area.
And this could see areas frustrated. In Greater Manchester, for example, Trafford's cases per 100,000 people is now only 85 but Rochdale and Bury still have rates of more than 200, which could prevent the region being moved to Tier 2.
Kent is likely to stay in Tier 3 as rates continue to climb there, and Lincolnshire could also remain in the highest category. There are fears London and Essex could join them and have a Tier 3 Christmas.
Like in Greater Manchester, there is variation in London, with some areas such as Camden and Richmond still relatively low, but cases are rising to high levels now in east London boroughs such as Waltham Forest and Havering.
In some counties, there has been an increase in some local authorities and a decrease in a handful of others.
It is important to bear in mind that latest infection rates are not the only measure that determines which tier an area is in.
The number of hospital beds available in each area and the prevalence of the virus specifically among over-60s who are more vulnerable to severe effects are also important factors.
Nevertheless, this analysis shows a further factor considered by the Government - whether virus infection rates are rising or falling in a given area.
Of the 10 local authorities with the highest rates, six are in Kent, two are in Lincolnshire and there is one each in Essex and London.
Swale, in Kent, has the country's highest rolling seven-day rate of new cases of coronavirus (619.7 cases per 100,000 people), followed closely by Medway (602.4).
The latest rates as of December 9 suggest there could be significant movement when the Government reviews the tiers in six days.
In the week to December 5 - the last few days discounted as data is incomplete - 171 of the 315 local areas in England have seen a fall, 142 have seen a rise, and two are unchanged.
Here is a look at how rates have changed since the Government assigned the tiers on November 26 (the rates published on that day were based on data up to November 22).
The new system went into effect on December 2 when England's second national lockdown ended.
Where rates have increased in Tier 2 areas
From left to right, it reads: name of local authority; rate of new cases in the seven days to December 5; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to December 5; rate of new cases in the seven days to November 22; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to November 22.
Essex
Basildon, 433.8, (812), 275.1, (515)
Brentwood, 281.7, (217), 199.9, (154)
Thurrock, 252.4, (440), 216.2, (377)
Epping Forest, 249.1, (328), 221.0, (291)
London
New figures show 20 London boroughs have rates higher than the England average. These are the five boroughs with the highest rates that have seen an increase in the last fortnight. They are in the east and south east of the capital.
Havering, 378.7, (983), 337.5, (876)
Waltham Forest, 316.6, (877), 217.3, (602)
Barking and Dagenham, 310.9, 261.6, (557)
Newham, 263.9, (932), 223.1, (788)
Bexley, 259.8, (645), 227.2, (564)
Surrey
Runnymede, 284.0, (254), 191.2, (171)
Woking, 218.3, (220), 193.5, 146.8, (148)
Hertfordshire
Broxbourne, 264.2, (257), 196.3, (191)
Watford, 199.8, (193), 164.6, (159)
Hertsmere, 158.2, (166), 146.8, (154)
East Hertfordshire, 146.2, (219), 128.2, (192)
North Hertfordshire, 100.3, (134), 96.6, (129)
East Midlands
Rutland, 97.7, (39), 47.6, (19)
North West
Barrow-in-Furness, 123.8, (83), 102.9, (69)
Buckinghamshire
Milton Keynes, 182.2, (491), 167.0, (450)
Aylesbury Vale, 160.4, (320), 132.4, (264)
High Wycombe, 151.2, (264), 139.1, (243)
Where rates have decreased in Tier 2 areas
Liverpool City Region
St Helens, 129.6, (234), 170.6, (308)
Liverpool, 88.1, (439), 147.2, (733)
Wirral, 57.1, (185), 112.3, (364)
Worcestershire
Worcester, 82.0, 153.1, (155)
Malvern Hills, 61.0, 87.7, (69)
Norfolk
Norwich, 121.6, (171), 140.9, (198)
South Norfolk, 109.3, (154), 137.7, (194)
Northamptonshire
Northampton, 197.2, (443), 227.1, (510)
South Northamptonshire, 113.2, (107), 201.1, (190)
Corby, 101.1, (73), 164.8, (119)
North West
Carlisle, 78.2, (85), 233.7, (254)
Warrington, 120.9, (254), 187.1, (393)
Cheshire East, 103.1, (396), 164.8, (633)
Cheshire West and Chester, 100.9, (346), 168.2, (577)
Suffolk
Ipswich, 160.7, (220), 161.4, (221)
East Suffolk, 61.7, (154), 71.4, (178)
West Suffolk, 53.6, (96), 60.9, (109)
Where rates have increased in Tier 3 areas
Kent
Swale, 619.7, (930), 532.4, (799)
Medway, 602.4, (1,678), 442.3, (1,232)
Gravesham, 423.6, (453), 392.7, (420)
Thanet, 419.9, (596), 478.4, (679)
Maidstone, 409.1, (703), 277.0, (476)
Where rates have decreased in Tier 3 areas
East Yorkshire
Hull, 200.9, (522), 460.0, (1195)
East Riding of Yorkshire, 147.4, (503), 278.5, (950)
Greater Manchester
Oldham, 153.5, (364), 366.9, (870)
Rochdale, 215.4, (479), 342.2, (761)
Wigan, 187.1, (615), 301.2, (990)
Manchester, 169.8, (939), 245.3, (1,356)
Trafford, 85.1 (202), 169.4 (402)
Bury 225.7 (431), 300.5 (574)
Lincolnshire
Boston, 387.6, (272), 438.9, (308)
Lincoln, 329.3, (327), 391.7, (389)
East Lindsey, 176.4, (250), 429.0, (608)
North Lincolnshire, 174.1, (300), 341.3, (588)
North East Lincolnshire, 153.5, (245), 372.9, (595)
North East
Hartlepool, 222.1, (208), 364.1, (341)
South Tyneside, 205.3, (310), 336.5, (508)
Middlesbrough, 180.9, (255), 309.3, (436)
Sunderland, 162.8, (452), 275.8, (766)
Newcastle upon Tyne, 113.9, (345), 300.8, (911)
Staffordshire
Stoke-on-Trent, 321.8, (825), 419.3, (1,075)
Newcastle-under-Lyme, 204.0, (264), 407.1, (527)
East Staffordshire, 220.5, (264), 362.4, (434)
West Midlands
Sandwell, 211.3, (694), 406.5, (1,335)
Wolverhampton, 243.4, (641), 343.6, (905)
Birmingham, 191.4, (2,186), 339.8, (3,880)
Walsall, 194.4, (555), 320.2, (914)
Warwickshire
Coventry 129.5 (481), 200.5 (745)
Rugby 105.6 (115), 212 (231)
West Yorkshire
Bradford, 192.7, (1,040), 362.9, (1,959)
Calderdale, 192.0, (406), 306.4, (648)
Kirklees, 182.6, (803), 373.6 (1,643)
Leeds, 142.5, (1130), 266.3, (2,112),
South Yorkshire
Doncaster, 214.2, (668), 245.3, (765)
Rotherham, 184.6, (490), 232.1, (616)
Barnsley, 139.8, (345), 256.8, (634)
Sheffield, 131.1, (767), 223.6, (1,308)
Lancashire
Pendle, 286.6, (264), 311.6, (287)
Blackburn with Darwen, 263.2, (394), 335.3, (502)
Burnley, 247.4, (220), 356.5, (317)
Rossendale, 226.6, (162), 303.6, (217)
Hyndburn, 169.0, (137), 407.2, (330)
Blackpool, 147.7, (206), 205.1, (286)
East Midlands
Nottingham, 152.0, (506), 196.8, (655)
Bassetlaw, 256.3, (301), 290.3, (341)
Derby, 144.6, (372), 260.8, (671)
Leicestershire
Oadby and Wigston, 301.7, (172), 413.9, (236)
Leicester, 245.6, (870), 383.4, (1,358)
Blaby, 203.9, (207), 346.7, (352)
North West Leicestershire, 113.9, (118), 279.9, (290)
South West
South Gloucestershire, 136.4, (389), 212.2, (605)
Bristol, 126.7, (587), 300.4, (1,392)
North Somerset, 113.9, (245), 204.6, (440)
South East
Slough, 238.7, (357), 323.0, (483)
The figures are based on tests carried out in laboratories (pillar one of the Government's testing programme) and in the wider community (pillar two).
The rate is expressed as the number of new cases per 100,000 people.
Data for the most recent four days (December 6-9) has been excluded as it is incomplete and does not reflect the true number of cases.
