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Bristol Post
Bristol Post
National
Jack Donoghue

Covid R rate for South West not being reported due to lab errors

The Government's official website is not reporting the South West's R rate after thousands of people were given incorrect negative tests.

Since the error, cases have been significantly higher in Bristol, Gloucestershire and Somerset, where people were socialising after being given the all-clear in their PCR test, which was actually positive.

And now the Government's main website is not publishing figures which would show how high the R rate and growth rate of the virus is currently estimated to be following the issues.

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A message on the website says: "Estimates for the South West have been paused until we gain a full understanding of the impact of the reported incident of the incorrect negative PCR test results on estimates in this region. UKHSA is confident that R is above 1 in the South West and that the epidemic is growing in this region."

Less than two weeks ago, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) announced that a private Covid testing lab in Wolverhampton had been suspended from processing NHS tests due to an unusually high number of negative results.

It was found that up to 43,000 people, mainly in the South West, had received false negative Covid test results, resulting in public health officials urging the public to get retested.

Data from Bristol City Council shows that since the lab was suspended, Covid case numbers have risen dramatically in Bristol.

On October 8, the Covid rate was 155 cases per 100,00 people, and that had risen to 271 cases per 100,000 people by October 12.

And it's a similar picture across Gloucestershire and Somerset where cases were also mixed up.

UK-wide, the Covid R-rate is continuing to rise and is estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.3, which means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 11 and 13 other people.

Five days ago, the R rate was between 1 and 1.2.

Meanwhile, the number of new infections is growing by between 1% and 3% every day, according to official government statistics.

Figures for the R rate and the growth rate are estimates which represent the spread of the coronavirus from two to three weeks ago.

This is because of the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

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