In the next two decades a high number of hospital admissions from alcohol -related diseases are expected, warns a new report.
Despite pubs, clubs and restaurants closing for approximately 31 weeks during the national lockdowns, the total amount of alcohol released for sale during the pandemic was still similar to the pre-pandemic years, which suggests people were drinking more at home.
The research looked at how “high risk” drinkers significantly increased during the pandemic with the consequences likely to be seen in the next few years.
Over time, excessive alcohol use can lead to the development of chronic diseases and other serious problems including certain cancers, high blood pressure, heart disease, stroke, liver disease, and digestive problems.
A recent report by the Institute of Alcohol Studies found that during the pandemic the number of “high risk” drinkers increased in the UK, along with how much the heaviest drinkers consumed, which is causing health and economic problems.
The report found a 20% increase in alcohol-specific deaths in England in 2020 compared with 2019.
Not everyone in the UK drank more during the pandemic, however.
The study suggested, on average, light and moderate drinkers decreased how much they drank.
The authors of the report warned there could be an extra one million hospital admissions due to worsening drinking habits, costing the UK health care system an estimated £1.2 (€1.4 billion) over the next 20 years.
They said the findings are a wake-up call for British authorities.
"The pandemic's impact on our drinking behaviour is likely to cast a long shadow on our health, and paint a worrying picture at a time when NHS services are already under huge pressure due to treatment backlogs," said Colin Angus at the University of Sheffield, who authored a separate study into the relationship of Covid to alcohol consumption.
Experts found that 25 to 34-year-olds who were drinking at risky levels before the pandemic were the most likely to increase their drinking when Covid hit.
Looking at five alternative scenarios for how alcohol consumption may develop from 2022 onwards, researchers said that in a best-case scenario – where all drinkers return to their 2019 levels of drinking this year – there would still be an extra 42,677 hospital admissions and 1,830 deaths over 20 years due to alcohol.
In a worst-case scenario, this would rise to 972,382 extra hospital admissions and 25,192 deaths, at a cost to the NHS of £5.2 billion over 20 years.
The team added: “In our main scenario, we estimate that, over the next 20 years, there will be an additional 207,597 alcohol-attributable hospital admissions and 7,153 alcohol-attributable deaths, costing the NHS an additional £1.1 billion compared to if alcohol consumption had remained at 2019 levels.
“These impacts are not evenly distributed across the population, with heavier drinkers and those in the most deprived areas, who already suffer the highest rates of alcohol-attributable harm, expected to be disproportionately affected.”
According to modelling in the report, lower risk drinkers are those drinking within the UK alcohol guidelines of 14 units per week.
Those classed as “increasing risk drinkers” consume more than this but no more than 35 units per week for women and 50 units for men.
Professor Sir Ian Gilmore, Chair of the Alcohol Health Alliance UK, said: “Rising alcohol harm has been a devastating consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic.
He added: Increased drinking among some of the population, rising hospital admissions for liver disease and the highest level of deaths caused directly by alcohol since records began are cause for serious alarm.
“Tackling alcohol harm must be central to the COVID-19 recovery plan if we are to curb this growing health crisis.”
