A summary of today's developments
- Australia has said it will shorten the wait time for people to receive Covid-19 booster vaccines. Health minister, Greg Hunt, said the time interval will be shortened to five months after the second dose.
- Another 633 Omicron cases have been found in the UK, the biggest daily increase since the Covid-19 variant was detected last month. The latest figure, a 50% day-on-day increase, brings the total number of confirmed Omicron cases to 1,898 across the country, the UK health security agency said.
- Brazil’s supreme court justice, Luis Roberto Barroso, has ruled the country must demand proof of vaccination for visitors seeking to enter the country.
- The Omicron variant could cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months if no additional measures are taken beyond Plan B, according to scientists advising the government.
- A booster dose means the risk of symptomatic infection with the Omicron variant is “significantly reduced”, according to health officials who have urged all those eligible to make sure they get their third jab.
- Tens of thousands gathered in Austria’s capital Vienna to protest mandatory Covid vaccines and home confinement orders for those who have not yet received the jabs.
- Taiwan’s government said on Saturday that it had detected the island’s first cases of the Omicron variant, found in three people who had arrived from abroad.
Mexico’s health ministry reported 235 more deaths from Covid-19, bringing the country’s official toll since the pandemic began to 296,620.
The health ministry has previously said the real number is likely significantly higher, Reuters reports.
Boris Johnson is facing further questions over whether he breached Covid laws after pictures emerged of him hosting a Christmas quiz in Downing Street while London was under tier 2 restrictions.
The prime minister was pictured on a screen reading out questions while staff were sat behind computers and conferred on the answers, the Mirror reported.
London was then under restrictions banning any social mixing between households.
Official guidance also stated: “You must not have a work Christmas lunch or party, where that is a primarily social activity and is not otherwise permitted by the rules in your tier.”
Staff working for the Work and Pensions Secretary (DWP) in England drank alcohol and ate takeaways “late into the evening” on a number of occasions while coronavirus restrictions were in place, the department confirmed.
It comes after the Sunday Mirror reported that political staff and officials frequently drank after work until the early hours of the morning, and ordered food to Therese Coffey’s office at the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP).
The newspaper said some of these evenings took place while hospitality and office parties were banned under Covid regulations.
The DWP has confirmed there were times when alcohol was consumed in a work space outside the Cabinet minister’s Whitehall office but stressed it took place while work was continuing past normal employment hours.
A source told the PA news agency the desks in the office are socially distanced and there was “no party atmosphere going on”.
A DWP spokesman said: “Throughout the pandemic, DWP officials have followed Government guidance while continuing to deliver vital services for millions of people.
“Staff worked from home where possible but a core team working directly to the Secretary of State regularly worked from the office, in accordance with the Covid-19 rules as they evolved.
“The team regularly worked late into the evening and on a number of occasions they ate takeaway food and drank some alcohol. No karaoke took place.”
Asked about the Sunday Mirror’s suggestion that Coffey gave presents to staff while they stayed late one night over last year’s festive period, the spokesman replied: “On one occasion close to Christmas, the Secretary of State gave gifts to her core team, as she does every year.”
The Treasury has confirmed “impromptu drinks” occurred when England was locked down.
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People in the UK should be able to get their Covid-19 jabs while doing their Christmas shopping, Labour said, as the opposition party calls for a “national effort” to increase the rate of booster shots.
With recent research from UK scientists finding that booster shots are likely to be effective against the Omicron variant, Labour is urging ministers to open more vaccinations sites and to open up booking slots to all double-jabbed adults.
Pop-up vaccination centres in supermarkets and shopping centres should be set up so people can get their third shot while on the high street doing their Christmas shopping, the party has suggested.
The shadow health secretary, Wes Streeting, is pressing the government to “pull out all the stops” to meet the prime minister’s target of having offered a booster jab to all those aged over 18 by the end of January, PA reports.
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Brazil has registered 53 new Covid-19 deaths, the country’s health ministry said on Saturday, bringing fatalities in the country to a total of 616,744.
The country had 3,355 new cases of coronavirus over the last 24 hours, reaching a total of 22.19 million, Reuters reports.
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Australia to shorten wait time for people to receive Covid booster
Australia has said it will shorten the wait time for people to receive Covid-19 booster vaccines following a rise in cases of the Omicron variant.
It had previously said it would offer a booster to everyone over-18 and who had their second dose of the vaccine six months prior, Reuters reports.
But with rising cases of the Omicron variant, Australia’s health minister, Greg Hunt, said the time interval will be shortened to five months after the second dose.
“A booster dose, five or more months after the second dose, will make sure that the protection from the primary course is even stronger and longer lasting and should help prevent spread of the virus,” Hunt said in a statement.
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Brazil's supreme court rules visitors must show proof of vaccination
Brazil’s supreme court justice, Luis Roberto Barroso, has ruled the country must demand proof of vaccination for visitors seeking to enter the country.
President Jair Bolsonaro has repeatedly denied requests of state health regulator Anvisa to demand vaccination proof from visitors, Reuters reports.
But Barroso said in his decision that Brazil needs to avoid supporting what he called “anti-vaccine tourism.”
The justice said the requirement for proof of vaccination can be waived only when the traveller comes from a country where no vaccines are available or the individual was prevented from vaccination due to health reasons.
The government has delayed for a week a regulation that would require non-vaccinated visitors to quarantine for five days due to a cyberattack on the health ministry on Friday.
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You can follow the latest Covid developments in Australia in our dedicated blog:
Israeli researchers said they found that a three-jab course of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine provided significant protection against the Omicron variant, Reuters reports.
The findings were similar to those presented by BioNTech and Pfizer earlier in the week, which were an early signal that booster shots could be key to protect against infection from the newly identified variant.
The study compared the blood of 20 people who had received two vaccine doses five to six months earlier with the same number of individuals who had received a booster a month before.
“People who received the second dose five or six months ago do not have any neutralisation ability against the Omicron. While they do have some against the Delta (strain),” Gili Regev-Yochay, director of the Infectious Diseases Unit at Sheba, told reporters.
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The first six cases of the Omicron variant of coronavirus have been detected in Turkey, health minister Fahrettin Koca was reported as saying on Saturday by state broadcaster TRT Haber.
Five of the cases were in the western city of Izmir and one in Istanbul, but none of those affected needed hospital treatment, state-owned Anadolu news agency reported.
Three West Indies cricketers and a member of the team management have tested positive for Covid-19 after they arrived in Pakistan for the upcoming tour.
Following PCR tests administered on arrival in Pakistan, Sheldon Cottrell, Roston Chase, Kyle Mayers, along with a non-coaching member of the team management have tested positive for COVID-19 and will now undergo a period of self-isolation #PAKvWI #Cricket
— Saj Sadiq (@SajSadiqCricket) December 11, 2021
There was confusion on Saturday about which age groups in England are now eligible to book a booster jab with the NHS, after an apparent glitch allowed younger people to book before they were expected to qualify.
People aged 30 and over in England were expected to be able to book a Covid-19 booster from Monday as long as it has been three months since their second vaccine dose, but many 30-somethings reported on social media that they had been able to book their appointments already.
The NHS website still said on Saturday evening that “the NHS is working on plans to offer a booster dose to everyone aged 18 to 39 years old”, and that people should note that this service is not yet available to book via their portal.
“Please wait to be contacted by the NHS,” a disclaimer on the website added.
Almost twice the number of coronavirus patients could be admitted to hospital in England compared with last year due to the Omicron variant, new modelling suggests.
Experts from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) have calculated figures which propose that a large wave of infections could occur over the next few months if tougher Covid measures are not brought in, PA reports.
The study projects a median peak of 7,190 daily hospital admissions in England in the worst case scenario – which could see the variant evading vaccines at a high rate as well as low effectiveness against the variant from boosters.
The most optimistic scenario (low rate of the variant evading vaccines, high effectiveness of boosters) “is projected to lead to peak daily hospital admissions around 60% as high as the peak in January 2021 in England”.
This would mean a median peak of 2,410 daily admissions compared with 3,800 daily admissions in January this year, the study said.
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France has also reported 120,383 coronavirus deaths since the start of the pandemic, Reuters reports.
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France has reported 53,720 new coronavirus cases.
The country has had more than 8.1 million cases overall.
Here is more on the protests in Vienna against mandatory vaccines and confinement orders for people who are unvaccinated.
Sir Jeremy Farrar, a former UK government adviser, has tweeted the following:
Best time for this was Oct2021, second best time is today, but now needs additional measures. Failure to act in Oct2020 led to dreadful impact & loss lives in Jan/Feb2021. We can now only hope failure to act in Oct2021 does not lead to similar outcome in Jan/Feb2022. Vaccine Plus https://t.co/7H9nhbeu6B
— Jeremy Farrar (@JeremyFarrar) December 11, 2021
More than half of Angola’s doctors will indefinitely continue a national strike over pay and conditions as the coronavirus pandemic strains the African nation’s depleted public health services.
Angola resorted to asking China and Cuba for help to fight the first Covid-19 wave last year with more than 250 Cuban doctors arriving, AFP reports.
According to 2020 figures, Angola has 5,200 doctors.
The country’s national doctors’ trade union on Friday said 3,000 of its members would “continue the national doctors’ strike in all public health units” after the industrial action began at the start of the week.
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Tens of thousands gathered in Austria’s capital Vienna to protest mandatory Covid vaccines and home confinement orders for those who have not yet received the jabs.
Police said an estimated 44,000 people attended the demonstration, the latest in a string of huge weekend protests since Austria last month became the first EU country to say it would make Covid vaccinations mandatory.
A partial confinement since last month ends on Sunday for the vaccinated, but those who have not received the required doses will have to remain at home, AFP reports.
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#COVID19 VACCINE UPDATE: Daily figures on the total number of COVID-19 booster & third doses that have been given in the UK.
— Department of Health and Social Care (@DHSCgovuk) December 11, 2021
As of 11 December, 22,594,743 booster & third vaccine doses have been given in the UK.
Visit the @UKHSA dashboard for details:https://t.co/cQkuLQglz1 pic.twitter.com/ab7oNpqF8F
UK Covid death toll increases by 132
The UK recorded 54,073 cases in the latest 24-hour period, bringing the total to 10,771,444.
There were also 132 deaths recorded, bringing the total to 146,387.
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More data from Italy. Patients in hospital with Covid – not including those in intensive care – stood at 6,539 on Saturday, up from 6,483 a day earlier.
There were 76 new admissions to intensive care units, the same as the previous day, Reuters reports.
The total number of intensive care patients edged up to 818 from 816 on Friday, which compares with 708 a week earlier.
Some 565,077 tests were carried out in the past day, compared with a previous 716,287, the health ministry said.
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Dozens of US Navy medics have deployed to New Mexico to treat a Delta variant-fueled surge in Covid-19 patients as part of a military operation to treat virus hotspots across western and midwest states.
New Mexico is suffering one of the highest levels of new coronavirus infections in the country, its hospitals reaching record capacity levels.
Nearly 50 Navy medics are treating Covid patients at the San Juan Regional Medical Center in Farmington, northwest New Mexico, where critical care patient numbers have been over 200% of capacity for weeks, Reuters reports.
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The speed at which scientists worked to develop the first Covid jabs was unprecedented. Just nine months after the UK went into lockdown, 90-year-old Margaret Keenan officially became the first person in the world outside a trial to receive the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.
But the virus is mutating, and the emergence of the Omicron variant last month is already focusing attention on the next generation of jabs.
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Italy reported 96 coronavirus-related deaths on Saturday, the health ministry said.
The daily tally of new infections rose by 21,042, Reuters reports.
Italy has registered 134,765 deaths linked to Covid-19 since its outbreak emerged in February last year, the second-highest toll in Europe after Britain and the ninth highest in the world.
The country has reported 5.2m cases to date.
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633 new Omicron cases detected in the UK
Another 633 Omicron cases have been found in the UK, the biggest daily increase since the Covid-19 variant was detected last month.
The latest figure, a 50% day-on-day increase, brings the total number of confirmed Omicron cases to 1,898 across the country, the UK health security agency said.
In England, another 618 confirmed cases of the variant were reported, with 1,757 in total.
Scotland reported 11 more cases, with 121 now confirmed.
In Wales, two additional cases were reported, bringing the total to 15.
A further two were confirmed in Northern Ireland, bringing the total to five.
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New coronavirus restrictions could be introduced in Scotland next week, the deputy first minster, John Swinney, has said.
PA reports that Swinney said ministers are spending the weekend “wrestling with the challenge of what are the right rules to have in place”.
But he said he does not think that Scots will face a restricted Christmas.
Asked on BBC Breakfast if new Covid measures would be put in place next week, Swinney said:
I can’t say definitively that will be the case, but that’s certainly been looked at over this weekend.
And we have to judge what’s the best set of measures that we can take to try to interrupt the circulation of the virus. We can’t have it moving at the pace its moving at just now because the danger is that will overwhelm our public and private services.
Nicola Sturgeon is due to give a statement in the Scottish parliament on Tuesday.
On Friday, she told a televised press conference that Scotland faced a “tsunami” of Omicron cases.
Swinney’s comments come as the latest statistics show 11 more Omicron cases have been confirmed in Scotland, taking the total to 121.
There were 4,087 coronavirus cases in total reported in the last 24 hours, with 12 deaths.
Asked if Scotland faced a restricted Christmas due to new Covid measures, Swinney said:
I don’t think so and I hope not. And we’re working very hard just now to make sure that does not become the case.
Meanwhile, a hospital ward in Inverness has been closed to new admissions due to a Covid-19 outbreak.
NHS Highland said that Ward 7a at Raigmore Hospital is closed to new admissions and visiting following the detection of a small number of cases of coronavirus.
Tests are establishing whether any of the cases are of the Omicron variant and the results are expected next week.
The projected number of deaths and hospital admissions caused by Omicron [see 12.12pm.] in England could be “substantially” overestimated if the new variant causes less severe disease than Delta, according to an expert.
Prof Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said any model was “only as good as its assumptions”, adding that one key assumption in this model is that severity of disease outcomes for Omicron is the same as for Delta.
He said:
Although we will not know for certain for a few weeks indications from South Africa do suggest that Omicron does cause less severe disease than Delta.
There is also early as yet not peer reviewed data suggesting that although Omicron mutations are enough to escape antibody, T-cell immunity would be less compromised.
It is thought that T-cell immunity is more important for reducing risk from severe disease than it is for reducing the milder nose and throat infections.
If Omicron is indeed associated with less severe disease as is, in my view, likely to be the case then these models would overestimate hospital admissions and deaths, possibly substantially.
Prof Hunter said he suspects these models “overstate” risk of hospital admissions and deaths and the “worst case” scenarios are “unlikely to be seen”.
He added:
As better data becomes available in coming weeks we can expect these models to be refined.
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Authorities in France want to accelerate vaccinations against the coronavirus before Christmas as infections surge and more people with Covid seek medical attention, AP reports.
“People can celebrate Christmas normally, but we must respect the rules ... and get vaccinated,” the French prime minister, Jean Castex, told public radio outlet France Blue during an interview on Friday.
France has registered a daily average of more than 44,000 new cases over the past week, a 36% increase from the previous week, according to the latest government figures. Weekly hospitalisations of people with Covid went up 1,120, a 41% rise.
The government on Monday closed nightclubs until 6 January and tightened social distancing measures in closed spaces and outdoors. Castex said the government is not considering another lockdown that would limit or prohibit public events and social gatherings.
With over 48 million of France’s 67 million people fully vaccinated and tens of thousands signing up for either their first shots or booster doses, the country could make it through the holiday season without additional restrictions on public life, the prime minister said.
Health workers in France were administering 700,000 vaccine doses a day, Castex said, adding that 90% of French residents had had at least one vaccine dose. “It’s an excellent figure,” he said.
The government is discussing whether to have France join other countries that have authorised vaccines for all children aged 5-11. Children under the age of 12 who are considered at risk of complications from Covid will be eligible starting 15 December.
Castex, 56, tested positive for the coronavirus on 22 November. His office said at the time that he had contracted the virus from his 11-year-old daughter. He was fully vaccinated, but his daughter was too young to get jabbed.
Pointing to himself as an example, the prime minister said: “So yes, vaccinating children is necessary.”
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Care home residents in England will be allowed only three visitors and one essential care worker under updated UK government guidance announced as part of new measures to protect the sector from the spread of the Omicron variant.
The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) said the move was “in order to balance the current Covid-19 risk and the need to keep people safe in line with clinical advice”.
It is understood the guidance will come into force from Wednesday.
Fully vaccinated residents visiting family and friends outside the care home will be asked to take a lateral flow test on alternate days for two weeks after each outing, while those not vaccinated will have to isolate after an outside visit.
Staff testing will be increased from two lateral flow tests a week to three, alongside a weekly PCR test.
The chair of the National Care Association has said new rules on care homes have “almost” taken people back to the restrictions that were in place a year ago.
Nadra Ahmed said she was hoping to get clarity on several details on the new guidance, including if people could change the nominated three people to visit someone in a care home.
The full story is here: Care home residents in England to be allowed only three visitors at Christmas
Omicron could cause 75,000 deaths in England by end of April without extra restrictions, scientists say
The Omicron variant could cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months if no additional measures are taken beyond Plan B, according to scientists advising the government.
New modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who also sit on the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) or the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), used experimental data to look at how Omicron may transmit as the country heads into 2022.
Even under the most optimistic scenario (low immune escape of Omicron from vaccines and high effectiveness of booster jabs), a wave of infection is projected which could lead to a peak of more than 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 hospital admissions and 24,700 deaths between 1 December this year and 30 April 2022.
This is if no additional control measures are implemented over and above the current Plan B introduced by the government in England.
The team said mask-wearing, working from home and booster jabs may not be enough, and predict a peak of daily hospital admissions of 2,400 in January.
In this scenario, bringing in control measures early in 2022 – such as restrictions on indoor hospitality, the closure of some entertainment venues and restrictions on how many people can gather in one place – would be sufficient to substantially control the wave, reducing hospital admissions by 53,000 and deaths by 7,600.
The most pessimistic scenario looked at by the modellers (high immune escape from vaccines and lower effectiveness of boosters) projects a wave of infection that is likely to lead to a peak in hospital admissions about twice as high as the peak seen in January 2021, if no additional control measures are taken.
This could cause 492,000 hospital admissions and 74,800 deaths, according to the study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed.
In this scenario, the team estimates that stronger measures may be required to keep the peak number of hospital admissions below the January 2021 peak.
The scientists assumed Omicron causes the same severity of illness as Delta but did not look at the impact of measures such as mass population testing to control its spread.
The paper reads:
These results suggest that Omicron has the potential to cause substantial surges in cases, hospital admissions and deaths in populations with high levels of immunity, including England.
The reintroduction of additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may be required to prevent hospital admissions exceeding the levels seen in England during the previous peak in winter 2020-2021.
Dr Rosanna Barnard, who co-led the research, said that while there remained a lot of uncertainty over Omicron, “these early projections help guide our understanding about potential futures in a rapidly evolving situation”.
She said:
In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron in the early part of 2022 would be reduced with mild control measures such as working from home.
However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed
Mask-wearing, social distancing and booster jabs are vital, but may not be enough.
Nobody wants to endure another lockdown but last-resort measures may be required to protect health services if Omicron has a significant level of immune escape or otherwise increased transmissibility compared to Delta.
It is crucial for decision-makers to consider the wider societal impact of these measures, not just the epidemiology.
Updated
Earlier, we reported that the Treasury has defended an “impromptu” drinks party after Rishi Sunak’s autumn spending review during lockdown.
A spokesperson insisted it was a “small number” of staff who celebrated around their desks, despite reports put the number closer to two dozen civil servants at the event.
A team of officials working on the chancellor’s spending review announcement stayed after hours for the party on 25 November 2020, the Times reported (paywall).
Government sources said the drinks were not planned but the civil servants involved bought beer and wine from a nearby supermarket.
A Treasury spokesperson told the Guardian:
A number of HMT staff came into the office to work on the spending review 2020. We have been made aware that a small number of staff had impromptu drinks around their desks after the event.
The Treasury did not organise an in-person departmental party last Christmas.
Here is my colleague Tom Ambrose’s story: Treasury defends ‘impromptu’ drinks party after Sunak’s autumn budget
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Labour has called on the UK government to give a “Christmas vaccine guarantee” to the hundreds of thousands of eligible children in England who have been unable to receive a Covid jab.
With recent figures showing that just 44% of children in the 12-15 age group had been vaccinated on 8 December, Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary, said the government needed to make a bigger push to vaccinate the remainder before they returned to school in the new year.
“As Omicron cases in the UK are rising, it’s essential that ministers use the Christmas holidays to get the vaccine out to children, preventing continued chaos next term,” Phillipson said.
“Labour has been calling on ministers to use pop-up and walk-in clinics, and bring back volunteers and retired clinicians to increase vaccine rollout, but 13 weeks after the jab was approved [by the chief medical officers] the Conservatives have failed to deliver.
“With hundreds of thousands of children out of school each week this term, the government must urgently get a grip and stop neglecting children’s education.”
The government had initially aimed to offer vaccinations to all 12- to 15-year-olds by the October half-term break. But the most recent figures suggest it will struggle to vaccinate half by the end of term next week.
Read the full story here: Labour demands ‘Christmas vaccine guarantee’ for pupils in England
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Mauritius has recorded its first two infections of the Omicron variant, with a dozen more contact cases feared, AFP reports.
The health minister, Kailesh Jagutpal, told a press conference on Friday the pair were asymptomatic and had tested negative the day before.
“They have already gone home,” he said.
He added that contact tracing for the two people had been carried out, revealing 12 positive cases with a missing S gene – a telltale sign of Omicron.
Health authorities were currently analysing the samples to determine if they are in fact Omicron.
One of the two Omicron cases was detected in a man who flew home to the island from South Africa on 27 November 27.
The second case was recorded in a woman in the island’s south whose husband had returned from South Africa on 18 November.
Mauritius fully opened its doors to international visitors at the start of October, hoping to rebuild its vital tourism industry after long months of isolation because of the pandemic.
But it was forced to reimpose restrictions last month as Delta variant cases surged.
According to latest figures reported to the World Health Organization, Mauritius has had 62,652 Covid cases and 680 deaths.
More than 900,000 people have been fully vaccinated, representing 73.5% of the population, government figures show.
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What’s the truth about lockdown-busting parties at No 10? Don’t ask Shagatha Christie, writes Marina Hyde in her column this week.
Here are some extracts:
There was simply no other place a Johnson government would ever end up but mired in rampant lies, chaos, negligence, financial sponging and the live evisceration of public service. To the Conservatives and media outriders somehow only now discovering this about their guy, I think we have to say: you ordered this. Now eat it.
Regrettably, though, space constraints must end our recap of the week here. But on it all goes, as Omicron closes in. We’ll play out with a reminder that in a pandemic that has so far killed 146,000 of the Britons who these people are supposed to be in politics to serve, the absolutely vital public health message has now TWICE been most fatally undermined by people who worked at the very heart of No 10 with Boris Johnson. That is absolutely a disgrace, and absolutely not a coincidence.
Read the full column here:
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I have updated my entry for 8.23am to add details of where the arrivals who tested positive for Omicron in Taiwan had travelled from. You may have to refresh the page in order to see the updated post.
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A year ago humanity embarked on a project to vaccinate every person against Covid-19. But in recent months a shadow vaccination campaign has also been taking place. From giraffes to snow leopards, gorillas to sea lions, zoos around the world have been inoculating their animals with an experimental Covid vaccine as an insurance policy against what they fear could be a similarly fatal illness for certain mammals.
Meanwhile, veterinary scientists have been scrambling to understand the scale of Covid-19 infection in our furry household companions, and what the consequences could be for their health – and our own.
Last week two hippos at Antwerp zoo in Belgium became the latest in a coterie of creatures to contract Covid from humans. Fortunately, Imani and Hermien had no symptoms apart from runny noses, but other animals haven’t been so fortunate. In November three snow leopards died from Covid-related complications at a children’s zoo in Nebraska. Other zoos have reported infections in gorillas, lions, tigers and cougars.
Although Sars-CoV-2 is thought to have originated in an animal, most likely a bat, until recently most of the scientific focus has, understandably, been on human cases of disease. Yet ever since the early days of the pandemic, scientists have worried about the possibility of other animal infections.
“We’ve always recognised that coronaviruses have this tremendous capacity to jump species. So it was always predicted that there would be a variety of domestic animals, livestock and potentially wildlife that could be infected,” said Margaret Hosie, a professor of comparative virology at the University of Glasgow’s Centre for Virus Research.
If other animals can become infected and transmit the virus, this could put pressure on it to adapt and acquire new mutations, raising the prospect of new variants that could be transmitted back to people. “You could be concentrating on eradicating the virus in humans, but meanwhile the virus could be mutating away quietly in an animal species, and getting hotter and hotter,” Hosie said.
Read the full story here: From hippos to hamsters: how Covid is affecting creatures great and small
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Where did Omicron come from? By all accounts it is a weird variant. Though highly mutated, it descended not from one of the other variants of concern, such as Alpha, Beta or Delta, but from coronavirus that was circulating maybe 18 months ago. So where has it been all this time? And why is it only wreaking havoc now?
Researchers are exploring a number of hunches. One is that Omicron arose in a remote region of southern Africa but failed to spread until now. Another is that it evolved in infected animals, such as rats, and then crossed back into humans.
But a third explanation is gaining ground as more data come to light, that Omicron arose in a person with a weakened immune system: someone having cancer treatment perhaps, an organ transplant patient or someone with uncontrolled HIV.
The latter possibility has sparked global concern. Sub-Saharan Africa is home to two-thirds of the global population living with HIV. For a whole series of reasons, ranging from lack of access to clinics to fear of stigmatisation and disrupted healthcare, 8 million people in the region are not on effective HIV therapy.
Beyond the direct problems this causes with disease progression and vulnerability to Covid – people with advanced or uncontrolled HIV are far more likely to die from coronavirus – is the risk that uncontrolled HIV is driving the emergence of Covid variants.
“For me there are two key things,” says Dr Richard Lessells, an infectious diseases physician at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in Durban, who was part of the team that first reported Omicron.
“First there is the science that needs to go on to get a better understanding of this. But more importantly, on a public health level, we don’t need to wait for the science. It is a reminder that while addressing the immediate challenge of Covid-19, we also need to intensify efforts to end HIV as a public health problem.”
Read the full analysis of why HIV prevention could be key to stopping coronavirus here:
As Omicron cases are on the increase and a new wave threatens to overshadow Christmas in the UK, the scientists working on Covid are also making calculations about which of their own festivities to go ahead with and which to scale back.
Hannah Devlin and Nicola Davis spoke to them about how they will navigate the festive season:
Omicron is spreading so fast in the UK that people are “very likely” to meet someone infected with the variant unless they are “living the life of a hermit”, Eleanor Riley, a professor of immunology and infectious disease, said this morning.
The University of Edinburgh academic also warned “a lot of people” could still end up in hospital even if the coronavirus mutation proves to provoke milder symptoms than the Delta variant.
Prof Riley told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:
Omicron is spreading so quickly that, I think, unless you are living the life of a hermit, you are very likely to come across it in the next few weeks.
I don’t think anyone should be going around thinking they are not going to catch it, I think that situation has changed.
She added:
There is a huge ‘if’ about this, ‘is it milder?’. I think it is very dangerous to compare data from South Africa, say, to the UK.
Even if it is milder and, therefore, a smaller proportion of infected people end up in hospital, given that so many people are going to come across this virus, even a small proportion of a lot of people is a lot of people in hospital.
Treasury staff had office drinks party during lockdown, reports say
Some Treasury staff who worked on the autumn spending review last year had office drinks while England was in lockdown, The Times reports (paywall).
It comes after more than a week of controversy over allegations of rule-breaking festivities in Downing Street in the run-up to last Christmas.
The Times reports that about two dozen civil servants were present for the drinks on 25 November 2020.
A Treasury spokesman said:
A number of HMT staff came into the office to work on the spending review 2020. We have been made aware that a small number of staff had impromptu drinks around their desks after the event.
The Treasury did not organise an in-person departmental party last Christmas.
At the time non-essential shops, leisure and entertainment venues were closed as well as pubs, bars and restaurants, and people were urged to stay at home except for limited reasons including work if it could not be done from home.
The Times said the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was not at the event and that it is understood he was not aware of it at the time.
On Friday, Downing Street said it has cancelled any plans to hold a Christmas party this year.
It came as Boris Johnson’s ex-aide Dominic Cummings said there were “lots” of photos of parties in No 10 that would “inevitably get out”.
Cummings dismissed defences from the prime minister’s allies that he would not have known about celebrations going on under his roof amid signs Johnson’s popularity is slumping.
The government chief whip, Mark Spencer, insisted Downing Street staff “were not drinking alcohol” and partying during Covid restrictions after it emerged the prime minister’s press chief addressed staff at one event last Christmas.
No 10 said Johnson retained full confidence in Jack Doyle to serve as communications director despite ITV reporting he addressed up to 50 people and made a speech at one party on 18 December.
Read more: Boris Johnson pressed to say if there were parties in his flat during lockdowns
Taiwan’s government said on Saturday that it had detected the island’s first cases of the Omicron variant, found in three people who had arrived from abroad.
The Central Epidemic Command Centre said the infections were detected in travellers from the UK, Eswatini and the US.
Like all entrants, they were tested on arrival and already subject to two weeks of quarantine.
Updated
Boosters urged in face of Omicron spread as Gove warns of 'concerning situation'
A booster dose means the risk of symptomatic infection with the Omicron variant is “significantly reduced”, according to health officials who have urged all those eligible to make sure they get their third jab.
It comes as the experts warned Omicron could become the dominant variant in the UK by mid-December, with the communities secretary, Michael Gove, saying everything is being kept “under review” in terms of measures to tackle the spread.
Analysis by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) found that the AstraZeneca and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines provided “much lower” levels of protection against symptomatic infection with Omicron compared to Delta.
But the preliminary data, which looked at 581 people with confirmed Omicron, suggested effectiveness seemed to “increase considerably” in the early period after a booster dose, giving about 70-75% protection against symptomatic infection.
The findings come as daily Covid cases reached their highest level in almost a year and the UKHSA predicted that, if current trends continue, the UK will exceed 1 million infections by the end of the month.
Read more: Two jabs offer little protection against Omicron infection, UK data shows
Gove warned of a “deeply concerning situation” after holding a Cobra meeting on Friday afternoon to discuss the latest data and the co-ordinated response across the four nations.
Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at the UKHSA, said while their early data should be treated with caution, it indicated that “a few months after the second jab, there is a greater risk of catching the Omicron variant compared to Delta strain”.
She added:
The data suggest this risk is significantly reduced following a booster vaccine, so I urge everyone to take up their booster when eligible.
Speaking to broadcasters, Gove said the Omicron variant is doubling every two to three days in England “and possibly even faster in Scotland”.
He added that 30% of reported cases in London were the new variant, and warned that evidence suggested Omicron was “more likely” than past Covid variants to “potentially” lead to hospital admissions among the fully vaccinated.
Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, earlier warned of the possibility of a “tsunami of infections” from the new variant – and said she could not rule out more restrictions north of the border as a result.
But No 10 maintained that there were “no plans” to go further with measures in England, amid reports that proposals are being drawn up for a “Plan C” featuring even tougher rules.
Gove said the current approach being taken was “proportionate”, but acknowledged that “we absolutely do need to keep everything under review”.
He said:
Action is absolutely required and, as new data comes in, we will consider what action we do require to take in the face of that data.
The Guardian reported that the health secretary, Sajid Javid, had been given a presentation from the UKHSA earlier this week warning that even if Omicron leads to less serious disease than Delta, it still risks overwhelming the NHS with 5,000 people admitted to hospital a day.
It said the leaked advice said “stringent action” would be needed on or before December 18 if the variant’s doubling time stays at 2.5 days, although what such restrictions might entail were not set out other than to say measures that would bring the R number – representing the average number of people each Covid-positive person goes on to infect – below 1.
Read more: Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals
Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, whose data was instrumental to the UK going into lockdown in March 2020, told the Guardian that projections suggested Omicron could “very substantially overwhelm the NHS, getting up to peak levels of admissions of 10,000 people per day”.
He said such a figure could be reached “sometime in January” but added that it was based on assumptions around the variant’s ability to get around existing protection, and the premise that it is similar to Delta in terms of the severity of disease it causes – something that is not yet known.
Read more: Omicron could overwhelm NHS if it is as virulent as Delta, Neil Ferguson says
Good morning from London. I’m Lucy Campbell, I’ll be bringing you all the latest global developments on the coronavirus pandemic for the next eight hours. Please feel free to get in touch with me as I work if you have a story or tips to share! Your thoughts are always welcome.
Email: lucy.campbell@theguardian.com
Twitter: @lucy_campbell_
