Ministers and public health officials are being "reckless" in easing further Covid-19 restrictions in Ireland, according to an epidemiologist.
Professor Gerry Killeen is the AXA Research Chair in Applied Pathogen Ecology at the School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences at UCC.
He believes the lifting of further rules in the coming weeks is "way too early", and that the country is on the "wrong side" of the scales when it comes to managing the virus.
It comes as Dr Tony Holohan signalled in his comments during a NPHET briefing on Tuesday that he believed it would take between four to six weeks before the country could reach maximum vaccination of the population.
The Chief Medical Officer has said he intends to give the Government vaccine targets which should be met before any further easing of restrictions occurs.
A Cabinet sub-committee meeting on Friday will aim to draft up the roadmap of the easing of restrictions before it's signed off by Ministers next Tuesday.
Health Minister Stephen Donnelly has said the Government will proceed with the relaxation of restrictions as planned but will also heed NPHET’s updated advice.
Minister Donnelly also indicated this week that all remaining coronavirus restrictions will be lifted by Christmas, with the aim that all sectors will have reopened by the festive season.
Professor Gerry Killeen is "optimistic" Ireland can find its way out of the pandemic, but not until 2022.
He cited two reasons why there is a current surge in Covid-19 cases and where the government went wrong in terms of allowing some activities to resume.
According to him, indoor dining and international travel should not have been permitted until more of the population are vaccinated.
He added that he is concerned about more restrictions on the hospitality industry, such as pubs, restaurants and nightclubs, being lifted soon.
"I'm not convinced of things are going to level off in September," Professor Killeen told the Irish Mirror.
"If they do, it will be more of a levelling off, I don't expect our incidence rates to start shrinking.
"Regardless if you look at simple models or look back to the measles experience, we are going to need something in the region of 95% coverage of everybody, including children."
We need to start looking at vaccinating children under the age of 12, he added, but he believes it will be December before this could happen as clear data is needed first from clinical trials currently taking place.
"We do have to make choices, if you want to get schools open, then you've got to de-prioritise other things," Professor Killeen outlined.
"Academic trajectories have a tipping point, it's like a weighing scales, once you're on the wrong side of the scales it just heads off in the wrong direction you don't want and we're already there.
"We've already got slow exponential growth and as soon as you make that worse it starts to become vast exponential growth.
The epidemiologist feels it's "way too early" to be discussing the lifting of further restrictions.
"I share a lot of optimism, I'm really optimistic that we're going to find our way out of this robustly in 2022," he said.
"If it was up to me I never would have opened indoor hospitality and I would also have kept strict controls on non-essential international travel.
"That's what has put us in the situation we are today, we're reopening schools with almost 2,000 cases a day.
"We've just had 40,000 people in Croke Park and more to the point, have had people celebrating in pubs and clubhouses all around the country.
"I don't share the confidence that that's all going to work out fine.
"None of us are 100% sure and I would love to be wrong, but I would wait and see what happens before I commit to any new roadmaps.
"I think it looks reckless and a bit forced and it looks a bit politically motivated, why launch it just before the schools open?"
Professor Killeen said he doesn't share the optimism of Health Minister Stephen Donnelly that all restrictions will be gone by Christmas.
"It's not my understanding of infectious diseases dynamics, it just doesn't add up, and I think I've been doing this a while longer than he has," he added.
Ireland can see from the experiences of other countries the impact of easing the measures too quickly, such as the United States and Brazil.
"I don't understand what particular brand of fairy dust we have in this country that we think it will be different for us," he stated.
The UCC professor is not too worried about the upcoming All Ireland football games, saying most people will be vaccinated and outdoors, meaning the gatherings will not lead to a "mushroom cloud" of cases.
However, he believes that the Electric Picnic music festival should not go ahead and that Laois County Council were correct to not issue a license.
This is because not only will locals in Stradbally be in contact with the large crowds, but also down to some festival-goers returning to households that have younger or vulnerable members.
"You can't have an event like that without having some consequences," he added.
Eradicating Covid-19 is "many years down the road", but eliminating the virus is "feasible", Professor Killeen also outlined.
"That option is really off the table until 2022," he explained.
"We had our opportunities to eliminate it way before this point but we blew them up, we decided instead to live with the virus.
"There's a whole bunch of things we decided not to live with and we have eliminated them, and sustained transmission doesn't live in this country anymore.
"So why would we do it for Covid, why would we decide to live with the virus for Covid? It doesn't make sense.
"Why look after everybody up to this point and then just let it rip, because that's what this looks like."
He added that this is putting vulnerable people and children in "a crap situation", and expressed concern over the impact of long-Covid on kids.
