Covid cases are finally starting to fall as the UK leaves behind the "last great peak" in infections of 2021, a study has found.
After weeks of recording case rates among the highest in the world, the country now appears to be easing into a more positive period in terms of daily infections.
It follows a particularly grim ten days at the end of October, when Covid cases were at an all time high in England.
A cause for concern amid this seemingly improving picture is the infection rate among older people, which is now rising.
While the picture has improved slightly, according to the ZOE Covid Study, its lead scientist has warned that the UK is by no means out of the woods yet.
Professor Tim Spector said: “It’s great that we’re finally seeing cases start to come down, and hopefully we’re over the last great peak of Covid in 2021.
"This is driven in large part by declining cases in children who have been on half term holidays and by high rates of previous infection, but we’re hopeful that the trend will continue.
"It is still worrying that cases in the older, more vulnerable age group are increasing, but as the booster programme continues to roll out we’re likely to see this come down as well.
"As the temperatures drop and winter comes we’re still seeing far too much Covid in the community leading to high Long Covid and hospitalisation rates compared to other countries in Western Europe.
"With high rates of other viral respiratory illnesses too (although no flu yet), there is no room for complacency."
The latest Zoe Covid Study figures show that there were 88,592 new daily symptomatic cases in the UK on average, based on PCR and lateral flow test data from up to five days ago.
That is a decrease of 4.7% from 92,953 new daily cases last week.
This follows a fairly steady rise from the middle of September, when daily cases were below 60,000.
The study shows that the jab continues to be the best protection against the virus.
In the double vaccinated population, cases continue to rise slightly and it’s estimated there are currently 27,980 new daily symptomatic cases, in the UK up from 26,927 cases last week.
The UK R value is estimated to be around 1.0 and regional R values are; England, 1.0, Wales, 1.0, Scotland, 1.0.
An R value of above 1 means that cases are rising, while below 1 suggests they're falling.
On average, 1 in 53 people in the UK currently have symptomatic Covid.
In the regions, England, 1 in 52. Wales,1 in 42. Scotland, 1 in 81.
Region, followed by daily cases, R rate and prevalence per person
The number of daily new cases is showing a clear decline in 0-18 year olds, following half term and with the jab continuing to be rolled out among young people.
Most other age groups are showing signs of levelling off.
The only age group with climbing cases is the more vulnerable 55-75 year old bracket.
In the middle of September around 4,000 people in that age group were catching the virus a day, compared to 10,000 now.
Professor Spector continued: "The high rates of cases are levelling off in most UK regions, with Scotland remaining low and Wales the high extremes.
"Ireland has higher vaccination rates than the UK, but lifted its restrictions and has seen cases rise.
"While restrictions, masks and vaccine uptake in children are factors, it’s clear that there’s no single solution to bringing rates down permanently.
"We’ve seen that a combination of population safety precautions and vaccines works best, and so the third booster vaccine, coupled with mask wearing and distancing in high risk areas, is our way out.”
