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Daily Record
Daily Record
National
Sophie Law

Covid calculator predicts all Scotland's virus 'hotspots' in Level 0 - check your area

A coronavirus calculator has predicted that almost the whole of Scotland could be a virus 'hotspot' when the country moves down to Level 0.

The country is due to drop down a level in the tier system on July 19, with restrictions on gatherings, restaurants and events to ease as the pandemic rumbles on.

An interactive map by Imperial College London has shown that nearly all of Scotland is likely to see cases soar above 100 per 100,000 when moving to Level 0.

Some 21 council areas, marked in red, have a 90 per cent or higher chance of being a virus hotspot when restrictions ease next week, according to the university's data.

Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee Stirling, Aberdeenshire and Fife are all predicted to be 'hotspots' from July 19.

Meanwhile, areas such as the Highlands, Moray, Argyll & Bute, Dumfries and Galloway, and the Scottish Borders are predicted to have less cases per 100,000 of the population.

Have something to say on this story? Let us know in the comments section.

Nearly all of Scotland is likely to see cases soar above 100 per 100,000 when moving to Level 0 (Imperial College London)

The prediction is based on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths compared to the threshold, assuming there is no change in the current situation, such as lockdowns and school closures.

The website considers an area to have increasing new infections if the model estimates that the reproduction number R is greater than 1 with probability of at least 90%.

It comes as Nicola Sturgeon will issue an update on the latest coronavirus situation in Scotland later today.

Speaking in the Scottish Parliament, the First Minister is expected to announce whether the country can move to Level 0 lockdown restrictions on July 19.

Cases of coronavirus have been high in recent months, casting doubt on whether the country can successfully drop down a tier level.

Health Secretary Humza Yousaf yesterday said Scotland was "past the worst" of the current wave of covid cases.

Cases peaked at 4,234 on July 1 following a sharp rise over the previous month.

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