For now, it is Australia that is struck by outbreaks and lockdowns - but on one measure New Zealand has higher failure rates at our border and could be riding our luck, writes Ross Stitt
Australia’s two largest cities are now in strict lockdown. Half the country’s population is under stay-at-home orders. Covid-19 case numbers are rising and the economic cost is hundreds of millions of dollars a day.
What’s gone wrong with Australia’s handling of the pandemic?
The answer is both very little and a great deal.
In 18 months, Australia has had only 900 deaths from Covid-19, one of the lowest per capita death rates in the world. Its economy has returned to pre-pandemic levels and unemployment is just 4.9%.
On any measure, Australia is having a ‘good’ pandemic.
But mistakes have been made. Avoidable mistakes. Costly mistakes.
The current lockdowns in New South Wales and Victoria are the result of a single ‘leak’ last month at the international border. A Sydney limousine driver caught the Delta variant of Covid-19 while transporting international air crew from the airport to their quarantine hotel.
The problem was that the driver was not vaccinated, he was not wearing a mask, and he was not being regularly tested. And none of that constituted a breach of any protocol or regulation. That might have been acceptable a year ago, but it is unforgivable now.
That single leak spread rapidly across Sydney. Unfortunately, the New South Wales state government compounded the problem by putting the city into the lockdown you have when you’re not having a lockdown. Shops, construction sites, and offices remained open. Given the infectivity of the Delta variant, it was no surprise that after three weeks this ‘lockdown lite’ had caused significant inconvenience but had not stopped the outbreak. Belatedly, Sydney has now moved to a much stricter and more effective lockdown.
In the meantime, some rogue removalists have transported the virus from NSW to Victoria.
The good news is that the NSW state government went into the current outbreak reasonably well prepared. Its highly effective contact tracing system and its significant Covid testing capacity have enabled it to monitor, and therefore limit, the spread of the virus from the outset. The Victorian government is also well prepared – a preparedness based on the bitter experience of prior lockdowns.
The bad news is that Sydneysiders, and to a much greater extent Melburnians, are increasingly frustrated by lockdowns. After a year and a half, they are over Covid-19. And as they become less tolerant of restrictions, they are also likely to become less compliant.
The latest outbreak has fed criticism of the federal government in Canberra for Australia’s relatively slow vaccine rollout. That slowness did not seem like a major problem when the country was essentially Covid-free. How quickly the mood has changed.
To be fair, many of the reasons for the slow rollout have been beyond the federal government’s control. Last year, faced with a range of possible vaccine alternatives, it gave priority to two of them – one from the University of Queensland because it was being developed in Australia and the other from AstraZeneca because it could be manufactured here.
Regrettably, the former proved unusable when it produced false-positive HIV results and the latter was subject to several early hiccups, including the withholding of supplies by the European Union and the triggering, on extremely rare occasions, of blood clots.
Fortunately, Australia is now receiving significant supplies of the Pfizer vaccine from offshore to bolster the domestic production of the AstraZeneca vaccine. At the same time, the latest Covid outbreak is making many Australians much keener to get vaccinated. Fear is a wonderful motivator. The vaccination rate is ramping up rapidly, with a million jabs administered in the past week.
What are the lessons for New Zealand in Australia’s current misfortune?
First, and most obviously, no one in NZ should be working anywhere near the international border unless they are vaccinated and wearing a mask.
Secondly, the NZ government needs to be well prepared in advance of any outbreak. That means having significant capacity in contact tracing and Covid testing before trouble strikes. It is no good trying to build that capacity during an emergency.
Thirdly, there is no future in lockdowns, closed borders, and quarantine. Citizens will grow increasingly frustrated with them and, inevitably, less compliant. Rapid and comprehensive vaccination is vital in New Zealand like everywhere else. It offers the only possible path out of the Covid-19 dilemma (including any future variants).
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said that once everyone in Australia has been offered the opportunity to get vaccinated, the country must begin to open up to the world again. That will inevitably mean Covid-19 infections and deaths among those who choose to remain unvaccinated.
The spike in cases now emerging in the United States shows the Delta variant is primarily a problem for the unvaccinated. Hopefully, this will convince many unvaccinated Australians to get the jab. If not, a reopened Australia may have more infections and deaths than have previously been considered acceptable. That would be tragic but the ‘vaccine hesitant’ can’t hold the country to ransom; the ‘hermit kingdom’ can’t last forever.
Prime Minister Ardern is no doubt contemplating the same harsh realities. She needs to start managing expectations now. And until all Kiwis have at least been offered the chance of vaccination, she needs to hope she can successfully maintain her ‘Covid-zero’ strategy.
A group of Australian and NZ academics undertook a review of “Covid-19 outbreaks and border failures” on both sides of the Tasman up to March 31 this year. They identified 24 failures – 14 in Australia and 10 in NZ. The rate of failures “per 1,000 Covid positive cases transiting quarantine” was three times higher in NZ than in Australia. And yet it is Australia that has had more cases, more deaths, and more lockdowns than NZ.
Australia is often called ‘the lucky country’. However, when it comes to Covid-19, NZ has been the lucky country. So far.
