Countries that aimed to eliminate Covid-19 have registered fewer deaths, better economic performance and fewer restrictions and lockdowns.
An article in the Lancet reported that compared to countries like the UK which aimed to simply mitigate the impact of Covid-19, countries like New Zealand who actively tried to eradicate it performed better across a whole range of measures including the amount of deaths and the economy.
A team found that, on average, over the first 12 months of the pandemic, but also at almost all time periods, countries which focused on mitigation saw more deaths, negative GDP growth and more severe restrictions on civil liberties.
Covid deaths per one million population were found to be 25 times lower in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries which opted for elimination. GDP growth, estimated on a weekly basis, had never fallen as far among these countries and is now back to pre-pandemic levels.
Countries’ responses to the pandemic were compared by a team of experts led by Professor Miquel Oliu-Barton, Paris-Dauphine University, and Professor Bary Pradelski, French National Centre for Scientific Research and the Oxford-Man Institute, University of Oxford.
Professor Pradelski said: "‘We have seen that those countries which acted pre-emptively and took swift action against local outbreaks were able to control the virus, while others were always at least one step behind."
In Wales and the wider UK the aim was never to eradicate Covid as they never had the infrastructure tracing or testing at the start of the pandemic. At the beginning of the crisis the overwhelming message was to "flatten the curve", not to eradicate.
Professor Philippe Aghion said: "The stop-and-go strategy is detrimental for long-term economic growth because it prevents firms from long-term planning. Instead of investing in innovation, they accumulate cash to face the next lockdown. Instead of investing in skills, they hire on a short-time basis."
Professor Miquel Oliu-Barton added: "Countries which have opted for elimination were able to create and protect green zones, where life can return to normal. Some countries are already forming green bridges, allowing safe travel."
By acknowledging that health, economic and civil liberty objectives are not in competition, aiming for elimination is the most effective and publicly acceptable way out of the pandemic, according to the paper. With the proliferation of new variants of concern, the article notes many scientists are calling for a coordinated international strategy to eliminate COVID-19.
The study also analysed policies that restricted people’s liberties, such as school, shops, and restaurant closures or movement restrictions. Among OECD countries, liberties were most severely impacted in those that chose mitigation, whereas swift lockdown measures - in line with elimination - were less strict and of shorter duration.
You can read WalesOnline's analyisis of the key flashpoints during the pandemic here.
