While the whole world will feel the impact of inflation and the reverberations of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the poorest and most disadvantaged countries will also face the most severe impacts.
While the energy sector was the first to feel the impacts of the invasion, the more pressing threat of food shortages is looming. The situation has gone from bad to worse. In many countries, COVID-19, internal conflict and various climate disasters have already pushed stability to the brink. Food shortages were already an issue with supply chain problems, but the conflict in the “world’s breadbasket” may be the catalyst for a spiralling disaster.
Russia and Ukraine produce 17% and 10% of the world’s wheat respectively. These figures place both nations in the top five wheat producers worldwide. The conflict and related trade embargoes and sanctions have essentially cut off access to their wheat, as well as the abundance of rapeseed, sunflower oil and fertilisers produced in the region.
The countries to be worst-affected by these shortages are those that are already struggling. And once food shortages set in, the situation only gets worse. António Guterres, secretary-general of the United Nations, has said the impacts will be “hitting the poorest the hardest and planting the seeds for political instability and unrest around the globe”.
Where hunger will get worse
Sudan
Sudan has seen an increase in internal conflict after years of civil war and last year’s coup. Thousands took the streets to protest the deteriorating economic situation this month, with a protest in the capital of Khartoum two weeks ago seeing thousands shrouded in tear gas.
South Sudan
In South Sudan, the process of establishing a democratic system hangs in the balance as political instability threatens to derail the world’s newest nation-state.
Ethiopia
In the unfolding civil war in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, a humanitarian crisis is growing, with many of the estimated half a million deaths resulting from starvation. With political instability already high in the fallout of the Ethiopian civil war, the food shortages and access
Yemen
A famine was already unfolding in Yemen, with the UN calling it the “world’s worst humanitarian disaster”. 2.3 million children under the age of five are “acutely malnourished”. Yemen’s humanitarian crisis is also resulting from internal conflict, stemming from a 2015 military intervention by Saudi Arabia designed to remove the Houthi insurgency, but has instead turned into a years-long military stalemate that has created famine. Efforts to get aid to the country have already been difficult, and limited supply of what will only worsen.
Syria
A decade into the civil conflict in Syria, the UN’s World Food Programme says the humanitarian crisis is at its worst point since the start of the upheaval. Over the past year, millions of Syrians slid into hunger, with little attention given to the again worsening crisis in the country. Syria’s currency has faced sever depreciation since 2019, in an ongoing financial situation that looks unlikely to improve given the global situation.
Afghanistan
The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan has been rapidly deteriorating since the Taliban retook control of the country last year. With Save the Children finding more than half of the population of Afghanistan lacking access to adequate food. This spiralling situation will only be worsened by the difficulties in accessing key resources from Ukraine and Russia.
Lebanon
Lebanon’s severe financial crisis driven by huge amounts of debt has left the once prosperous nation at severe risk of political instability. With the precariousness of the financial situation, a lack of access to key resources such as wheat may worsen the situation further, with the feeling on ground suggesting
Food shortages are just the beginning
Malnutrition remains one of the leading causes of death around the world, and the devastation only starts there. Food shortages are directly linked to political instability and in many cases uprising. The Arab Springs uprisings stemmed from food insecurity and economic difficulties, being just the most recent example of the well-established phenomenon.
Agriculture analyst Ben Isaacson explains the various uprisings since the 1970s in North Africa and the Middle East and their connection to food insecurity: “What actually led to people going into the streets and protesting? It starts from food shortages and from food price inflation.”
