When I interviewed Arizona political blogger Slade Mead about politics in the state, I started the interview with the assumption that John McCain was going to win easily in his home state. Slade quickly corrected me, and said, "Arizona is probably more in play than one may imagine."
I'm big enough to admit when I'm wrong. Now the race in Arizona has tightened so much that Barack Obama is considering a last minute visit to the state in hopes that it might give him a "real upset".
Slade put the closeness of the race down to two things:
1) "For instance, they had a bit of a coup in the Republican Party. It was taken over by a guy named Randy Pullen. He and Mccain can't stand each other," Slade said. Slade blogged in March that state Republican leaders weren't donating money to McCain's campaign.
2) The state has a very popular Democratic governor, Janet Napolitano, who has been backing Barack Obama from day one.
Slade was a Republican state senator but broke with the party over disagreements over public education. I interviewed him three weeks ago, and he said, "If stock market drops for 500-600 a day, it will get ugly." Guess what?
At the end of September, Rasmussen Reports found McCain had a 21-point lead over Barack Obama . Their most recent poll found that lead had shrunk to five points. Another poll by Arizona State University found McCain's lead to be an even slimmer two points.
The Obama campaign is recruiting volunteers in Arizona to combat McCain robo-calls but also because they see a "real chance" for an upset. An e-mail sent by the Obama campaign to supporters in the state cited a story in the Arizona Republic newspaper that Obama and McCain are now "neck-and-neck". McCain is having to play defence and spend money on advertising not only in Arizona but also in reliably Republican Georgia.
Richard Wolffe of Newsweek said that Obama campaign is "intrigued" by the tightening polls, and he says:
The campaign is now seriously examining a late surge into the state. That may include ramping up TV advertising, on-the-ground staff or even deploying the candidate to stop there. Obama is scheduled to make a Western swing late this week, making an Arizona visit possible.
Even if Obama doesn't shift some resources there, progressive pressure group MoveOn.org is running this ad there:
While the national polls have shown some tightening towards John McCain recently, the state polls continue to show the challenge that McCain faces next Tuesday.
