There are two years and four months still to go until Japan’s 2019 Rugby World Cup kicks off but at least one leading nation is already doomed to catch the bullet train to premature oblivion. While some tough early pool games can occasionally prove to be helpful in the later stages, England will be fooling no one if they insist a grouping with France and Argentina is exactly what they always wanted.
Bill Beaumont, the former England captain who pulled his own country’s name out of the pot, can expect precious few congratulatory messages from home. England under Eddie Jones continue to nurse genuine hopes of success in 2019 but any vague prospect of a smooth ride into the last eight has now abruptly disappeared.
The loud “ooh” from the dignitaries at the draw in Kyoto said it all. France have endured a lean period but there are definite signs of a gathering renaissance. Argentina’s world ranking of No9, similarly, does not reflect their growing strength in Test terms and they tend to relish the World Cup experience. In 2015, it was the Pumas who featured in a semi-final at Twickenham while England failed to make the knock-out phase.
Any last remnants of complacency are also set to be stripped away next month when an England squad shorn of their Lions and featuring a sizeable number of uncapped hopefuls head to South America for Tests in San Juan and Santa Fe. If Argentina do not now approach those fixtures with an extra sense of purpose, it will be a surprise.
There could be even more discomfort to come for England if Samoa or Tonga and a hard-hitting USA side also join the Pool C party. A good deal will clearly depend on the order of fixtures but woe betide any of the leading three contenders who start sluggishly. If Jones’s team do finish on top and stay unbeaten, they will certainly have earned their celebratory sake.
What also makes this draw particularly intriguing, however, are the tantalising opportunities on offer to all the other home nations if they arrive in Japan in decent shape. Ireland and Scotland should be suitably wary of the home side, who will be supremely motivated, but whoever finishes top has a more than decent chance of going a long way. New Zealand, who have been drawn with South Africa and Italy, are almost certain to end up on the other side of the draw and would potentially be lying in wait for England in the semi-finals should both teams top their pools en route to the last four.
Wales also have reason to be quietly optimistic, despite their poor record against Australia in recent times. Wallabies rugby is not currently awash with optimism and Georgia, despite being ranked three places above Italy, are a better option than Argentina. Even if they are once again required to face Fiji, who famously beat them at the 2007 World Cup, Warren Gatland’s team have already dodged a fair number of bullets.
When the match schedule is confirmed, it could also prove a win-win draw for the organisers. An opening match between Japan and Ireland in Tokyo followed by New Zealand v South Africa in Yokohama and England facing, say, USA, would certainly attract plenty of global attention on the first weekend, with Australia v Georgia or Fiji another tasty option.
It will be equally fascinating to see whether the gaps between fixtures are as fair for the lower-ranked nations as they are for the bigger fish. Why should, say, England, not have to back up and play again within five days as others have had to do in the past?
Television, naturally, has a big say on these occasions but the time difference could make for a contrasting picture this time. Viewing figures for Japan’s games will not be insignificant and it could easily be that the European nations end up with a few of the more inconvenient night shifts.
Either way, a World Cup in Asia is something to be savoured and applauded on all fronts. Ireland, who are touring Japan this summer, will follow Scotland last year in enjoying a timely recce of venues and culture. When the moment comes, interest will be colossal, particularly if the home side do well. “I think we’re fortunate in that we play Ireland [this] June,” said the New Zealander Jamie Joseph, Japan’s head coach. “That will give the players a good understanding. Japan haven’t beaten Ireland or Scotland so we know that the challenge is going to be big.”
A little extra spice has also been sprinkled on the forthcoming British & Irish Lions tour; there will be plenty of time for Stuart Hogg and Jonathan Sexton to discuss Scotland and Ireland’s joint pool prospects on the flight to New Zealand.
For every England supporter, though, one unspoken horror will niggle away for the next two years: might England fail to escape their pool for a second successive tournament? There is much work to do before Jones’s vision of his side lifting the Webb Ellis Cup in Yokohama on 2 November 2019 becomes reality.
Expert analysis
James Haskell – England flanker: Whenever you go to a World Cup it’s always hard, I’d like to play Broadstreet RFC four times in a pool. That would be the ideal scenario. It’s always tough. I don’t think there’s such things as worse or better draws. Argentina are in a false position. They play all year, are in the World Cup and are super dangerous. But I don’t see anybody being an easy team to play. If you see the last World Cup, there were so many banana skins and any team can beat each other on their day. Japan’s quite far away, it’s a very different place to go to. It will test boys’ mental fortitude, it’ll test the togetherness of the squad and their rugby ability.
Jamie Heaslip – Ireland No8: Getting to avoid South Africa, France and Wales, that’s a big thing for us. We’re happy with it, there’s some tougher groups. I wouldn’t say relieved, we were in the top tier of the draw and that helped us out – Ireland are playing Japan twice this summer so will find out what they’re all about. Scotland, we’ve had our struggles with them in the past couple of seasons. But looking at the other groups, there are a lot of tough battles and Ireland have never been past the quarter-finals. We’ve got over a couple of hurdles for the first time recently, winning in South Africa, finally beating New Zealand and it would be nice to get a couple more firsts.
Jonny Wilkinson – World Cup winner with England in 2003: I am sure it will be called the pool of death and it is a tough-looking pool but we have two years until the tournament and you use that time to target the first game. It is a pool England could get out of without too many problems, it’s also a pool that they could find themselves still in when everyone else moves on to the quarter-finals. But the reason I don’t think it’s a pool of death is because the others are all pretty tricky as well – the word death is just a bit strong, it’s the group of minor suffering. Maybe the answer is going into that pool knowing that [England’s] seven out of 10 is better than their opponents’ 10 out of 10.
Bryan Habana – World Cup winner with South Africa in 2007: The class of 2016 played a part in getting the draw with New Zealand – some poor results at home and away has put Allister Coetzee and South Africa as a rugby nation under pressure. It’s the first time that we’ve been drawn against New Zealand but if you want to be the best in the world at some point you have to beat the best. At a World Cup you’re going to be tested. It makes the lead up to the knockout stages all the more difficult. It’s a big challenge for South Africa.
Shane Williams – Wales’ record tryscorer and played for Mitsubishi Dynaboars: It’s not a bad group really, Georgia are a team that is improving and has done extremely well of late. We probably wanted to avoid Fiji, we struggle against them in World Cups but realistically it’s a group in which Wales can go very well. Australia will be the favourites there, but we’ll be optimistic. It’s going to be a great World Cup, different to what we’ve seen so far and I think the world will embrace it.
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