Donald Trump’s operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro could ultimately serve China in taking Taiwan, experts have warned.
The Trump administration’s blistering assault on Caracas to oust Maduro from power has been met with a mix of shock, condemnation and calculated support from world leaders.
Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute, told the Washington Post that where officials in Beijing may have once worried that a Chinese assault on Taiwan would have provoked a “united response” from the international community, Venezuela has shown otherwise.
“Everything that is being said about the importance of defending Taiwan is being undermined by the lawlessness of Trump in the attack on Caracas,” he said.
China publicly condemned the intervention as a “clear violation of international law”, confronting Washington at the United Nations over the move’s legality. Beijing’s top diplomat also accused the US of acting like a “world judge” by seizing Maduro to put him on trial in New York.
But Tsang suggested the move played into China’s hands, undermining any ability to muster an international response to a future attack on Taipei.
William Yang, an analyst at International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based NGO, said: “Washington's consistent, long-standing arguments are always that the Chinese actions are violating international law, but they are now damaging that.
“It's really creating a lot of openings and cheap ammunition for the Chinese to push back against the US in the future.”
On Sunday, China's official Xinhua news agency called the US attack “naked hegemonic behaviour”.
“The US invasion has made everyone see more and more the fact that the so-called 'rules-based international order' in the mouth of the United States is actually just a 'predatory order based on US interests',” it said.
China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own province, which Taiwan rejects. China also claims almost all of the South China Sea, putting it at odds with several Southeast Asian nations that also claim parts of the vital trade route.
Beijing last week encircled the island in its most extensive war games to date, showcasing its ability to cut off Taiwan from outside support in a conflict.
It also expressed anger at a planned US arms sale worth more than $11bn, including missiles, drones, artillery systems and military software. The United States is obligated by its own laws to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.
Wang Ting-yu, a senior lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling party, still rejected the idea that China might follow the US example and strike Taiwan.
“China has never lacked hostility toward Taiwan, but it genuinely lacks the feasible means,” Wang posted on Facebook. “China is not the United States, and Taiwan is certainly not Venezuela. If China could actually pull it off, it would have done so long ago!”
Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said he expected Taiwan's government to express lightly worded support for American action on Venezuela. Taiwan has not yet made any statement.
“What I do think Trump's actions could do is to help Xi Jinping's narrative in the future to create more justification for action against Taiwan,” he said.
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