With coronavirus cases around the world now at over 40 million, scientists have been working around the clock to understand how to slow the spread.
Now, researchers from Oxford University claim that shielding just 5% of the most vulnerable Brits could reduce Covid-19 deaths by up to 75%.
In their study, the team developed a new Covid-19 risk tool using data from more than 8 million patients.
The tool revealed that people in the top 5% for predicted death risk accounted for 76% of fatalities in the first wave.
Meanwhile, those in the highest 20% made up a huge 94% of Covid-19 deaths, according to the researchers.
Professor Julia Hippisley-Cox, who led the study, said: “This model will help inform clinical advice so that people can take proportionate precautions to protect themselves from Covid.”
The idea of targeted shielding has been highly debated since the pandemic was declared back in March.
Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Edinburgh University, who was not involved in the study, said: “A very striking result from the validation exercise: the five per cent of people predicted to be at greatest risk accounted for 75 per cent of the deaths.
“This implies that we can now identify in advance a small proportion of people at greatly increased risk - over 50 times that of the remaining 95 per cent.
“This result provides support for the concept of targeted shielding.
“If ways could be found to protect this five per cent – such as regular testing of their closest contacts – then this could make a substantial difference to the public health burden of Covid.”
