Hopes are high that Greater Manchester could finally escape Tier 3 restrictions as coronavirus cases here have fallen dramatically.
Meanwhile, London and Essex are among the areas at risk of being moved up to Tier 3 when the government reviews the lockdown system next week, reports the Mirror.
It appears several areas could finally escape the highest restrictions for the first time in months - including Greater Manchester - which has faced restrictions since July.
A Mirror analysis of rates since November 26 - when the new tiering system was brought in ahead of the England-wide lockdown being lifted on December 2 - reveals the place which could move up or down.
Infection rates in many Tier 3 areas are falling - including Greater Manchester, Hull and the North East - where they could finally go into Tier 2.
Some have dropped more than others and it is not clear by how much rates must fall for the government to move them down a tier.
Trafford's cases per 100,000 are now 85, but Rochdale and Bury still have rates above 200, which could put the brakes on any GM-wide move down.
However, Mayor Andy Burnham has raised the possibility of the region being split into different tiers in his press briefing this afternoon.
He said there was a 'strong' case for a loosening of restrictions in certain parts of the conurbation, especially compared to London and Liverpool in terms of when they went into Tier 2.
Kent is likely to remain in Tier 3 as rates continue to rise there and Lincolnshire is in the same position, according to the Mirror analysis. There are fears London and Essex could join them for a Christmas in Tier 3.
There is variation in London, similar to Greater Manchester, with areas like Camden and Richmond seeing relatively low rates of infection, whereas east London boroughs of Waltham Forest and Havering seeing high levels of coronavirus.
The overall rate is only one measure which will determine if an area is moved into a specific tier.
The government also looks at the number of hospital beds in each area and the prevalence of the virus specifically in over-60s, who are more susceptible to serious side effects.
Of the 10 local authorities with the highest rates, six are in Kent, two are in Lincolnshire and there are one each in London and Essex.
Swale in Kent has the nation's highest rates of 619.7 cases per 100,000, followed closely by Medway at 602.4.
In the week to December 5, when latest data is available, 171 out of 315 local authority areas in England have seen a fall - 142 have seen a rise and two are unchanged.
Where rates have increased in Tier 2
Essex
Basildon, 433.8, (812), 275.1, (515)
Brentwood, 281.7, (217), 199.9, (154)
Thurrock, 252.4, (440), 216.2, (377)
Epping Forest, 249.1, (328), 221.0, (291)
London
Havering, 378.7, (983), 337.5, (876)
Waltham Forest, 316.6, (877), 217.3, (602)
Barking and Dagenham, 310.9, 261.6, (557)
Newham, 263.9, (932), 223.1, (788)
Bexley, 259.8, (645), 227.2, (564)
Surrey
Runnymede, 284.0, (254), 191.2, (171)
Woking, 218.3, (220), 193.5, 146.8, (148)
Hertfordshire
Broxbourne, 264.2, (257), 196.3, (191)
Watford, 199.8, (193), 164.6, (159)
Hertsmere, 158.2, (166), 146.8, (154)
East Hertfordshire, 146.2, (219), 128.2, (192)
North Hertfordshire, 100.3, (134), 96.6, (129)
East Midlands
Rutland, 97.7, (39), 47.6, (19)
North West
Barrow-in-Furness, 123.8, (83), 102.9, (69)
Buckinghamshire
Milton Keynes, 182.2, (491), 167.0, (450)
Aylesbury Vale, 160.4, (320), 132.4, (264)
High Wycombe, 151.2, (264), 139.1, (243)
Where rates have decreased in Tier 2 areas
Liverpool City Region
St Helens, 129.6, (234), 170.6, (308)
Liverpool, 88.1, (439), 147.2, (733)
Wirral, 57.1, (185), 112.3, (364)
Worcestershire
Worcester, 82.0, 153.1, (155)
Malvern Hills, 61.0, 87.7, (69)
Norfolk
Norwich, 121.6, (171), 140.9, (198)
South Norfolk, 109.3, (154), 137.7, (194)
Northamptonshire
Northampton, 197.2, (443), 227.1, (510)
South Northamptonshire, 113.2, (107), 201.1, (190)
Corby, 101.1, (73), 164.8, (119)
North West
Carlisle, 78.2, (85), 233.7, (254)
Warrington, 120.9, (254), 187.1, (393)
Cheshire East, 103.1, (396), 164.8, (633)
Cheshire West and Chester, 100.9, (346), 168.2, (577)
Suffolk
Ipswich, 160.7, (220), 161.4, (221)
East Suffolk, 61.7, (154), 71.4, (178)
West Suffolk, 53.6, (96), 60.9, (109)
Where rates have increased in Tier 3 areas
Kent
Swale, 619.7, (930), 532.4, (799)
Medway, 602.4, (1,678), 442.3, (1,232)
Gravesham, 423.6, (453), 392.7, (420)
Thanet, 419.9, (596), 478.4, (679)
Maidstone, 409.1, (703), 277.0, (476)
Where rates have decreased in Tier 3 areas
East Yorkshire
Hull, 200.9, (522), 460.0, (1195)
East Riding of Yorkshire, 147.4, (503), 278.5, (950)
Greater Manchester
Oldham, 153.5, (364), 366.9, (870)
Rochdale, 215.4, (479), 342.2, (761)
Wigan, 187.1, (615), 301.2, (990)
Manchester, 169.8, (939), 245.3, (1,356)
Trafford, 85.1 (202), 169.4 (402)
Bury 225.7 (431), 300.5 (574)
Lincolnshire
Boston, 387.6, (272), 438.9, (308)
Lincoln, 329.3, (327), 391.7, (389)
East Lindsey, 176.4, (250), 429.0, (608)
North Lincolnshire, 174.1, (300), 341.3, (588)
North East Lincolnshire, 153.5, (245), 372.9, (595)
North East
Hartlepool, 222.1, (208), 364.1, (341)
South Tyneside, 205.3, (310), 336.5, (508)
Middlesbrough, 180.9, (255), 309.3, (436)
Sunderland, 162.8, (452), 275.8, (766)
Newcastle upon Tyne, 113.9, (345), 300.8, (911)
Staffordshire
Stoke-on-Trent, 321.8, (825), 419.3, (1,075)
Newcastle-under-Lyme, 204.0, (264), 407.1, (527)
East Staffordshire, 220.5, (264), 362.4, (434)
West Midlands
Sandwell, 211.3, (694), 406.5, (1,335)
Wolverhampton, 243.4, (641), 343.6, (905)
Birmingham, 191.4, (2,186), 339.8, (3,880)
Walsall, 194.4, (555), 320.2, (914)
Warwickshire
Coventry 129.5 (481), 200.5 (745)
Rugby 105.6 (115), 212 (231)
West Yorkshire
Bradford, 192.7, (1,040), 362.9, (1,959)
Calderdale, 192.0, (406), 306.4, (648)
Kirklees, 182.6, (803), 373.6 (1,643)
Leeds, 142.5, (1130), 266.3, (2,112),
South Yorkshire
Doncaster, 214.2, (668), 245.3, (765)
Rotherham, 184.6, (490), 232.1, (616)
Barnsley, 139.8, (345), 256.8, (634)
Sheffield, 131.1, (767), 223.6, (1,308)
Lancashire
Pendle, 286.6, (264), 311.6, (287)
Blackburn with Darwen, 263.2, (394), 335.3, (502)
Burnley, 247.4, (220), 356.5, (317)
Rossendale, 226.6, (162), 303.6, (217)
Hyndburn, 169.0, (137), 407.2, (330)
Blackpool, 147.7, (206), 205.1, (286)
East Midlands
Nottingham, 152.0, (506), 196.8, (655)
Bassetlaw, 256.3, (301), 290.3, (341)
Derby, 144.6, (372), 260.8, (671)
Leicestershire
Oadby and Wigston, 301.7, (172), 413.9, (236)
Leicester, 245.6, (870), 383.4, (1,358)
Blaby, 203.9, (207), 346.7, (352)
North West Leicestershire, 113.9, (118), 279.9, (290)
South West
South Gloucestershire, 136.4, (389), 212.2, (605)
Bristol, 126.7, (587), 300.4, (1,392)
North Somerset, 113.9, (245), 204.6, (440)
South East
Slough, 238.7, (357), 323.0, (483)
The figures are based on tests carried out in laboratories (pillar one of the government's testing programme) and in the wider community (pillar two).
The rate is expressed as the number of new cases per 100,000 people.
Data for the most recent four days (December 6-9) has been excluded as it is incomplete and does not reflect the true number of cases.
