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Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
National
Chris Kitching

Coronavirus R rate rises to as high as 1.5 in England as cases continue to surge

The coronavirus reproduction (R) number in England has increased slightly and is now between 1.2 and 1.5, according to the latest Government figures.

Last week, it was between 1.1 and 1.3.

Regionally, the R number is as high as 1.6 in North East and Yorkshire, the South East and the South West.

R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.

An R value between 1.2 and 1.5 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 15 other people.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially but when it is below 1, it means the epidemic is shrinking.

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The growth rate is between 3% and 7%, which means the number of new infections is growing by between 3% and 7% every day.

Last week, the growth rate was +2% to +5%.

The estimates represent the transmission of coronavirus two to three weeks ago due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

Here is a breakdown by NHS England regions, with the regional R number first, followed by the growth rate:

  • England: 1.2 to 1.5, 3% to 7%
  • East of England: 1.1 to 1.5, 2% to 7%
  • London: 1.1 to 1.4, 2% to 6%
  • Midlands: 1.2 to 1.5, 4% to 8%
  • North East and Yorkshire: 1.3 to 1.6, 5% to 8%
  • North West: 1.1 to 1.2, 1% to 4%
  • South East: 1.3 to 1.6, 4% to 9%
  • South West: 1.3 to 1.6, 5% to 8%

It comes as the Government prepares to end the last remaining legal lockdown restrictions on July 19, so-called "freedom day", despite infections soaring to a six-month high this week.

Fuelled by the more transmissible Delta variant, more than 32,500 confirmed cases were reported on both Wednesday and Thursday for the first time since January.

The government has said the vaccine has broken the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths.

Hospitalisations have crept up to a seven-day average of 380, which is one-tenth of where they were during the peak of the second wave in January.

Face masks are set to become voluntary in England when restrictions are eased on July 19 (PA)

At that time, when very few Britons were vaccinated, the average peaked at just over 4,200 people being admitted to hospital with Covid per day.

Deaths have also increased but are far below the peak of the second wave, as most of those in the most vulnerable groups have now had two jabs of a vaccine.

The latest seven-day trend shows 24.9 people a day are dying with coronavirus.

At the peak in January, an average of 1,248 people a day were dying.

Elsewhere, the latest figures from Public Health England (PHE) show cases of the dominant Delta variant rose by a third in the past week.

A total of 216,249 confirmed and probable cases of that variant, first identified in India and which now accounts for approximately 99% of confirmed cases of coronavirus across the UK – have been identified in the four nations.

Of the 216,249 cases, 180,643 have been in England, 28,559 in Scotland, 3,666 in Wales and 3,381 in Northern Ireland.

It remains the case that the majority of people being admitted to hospital in England with the Delta variant are unvaccinated, according to the PHE figures.

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