The UK's coronavirus R number has dropped slightly to 1.5 but the rate of transmission is not slowing, according to new estimates from the Government's scientific advissrs.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said R is between 1.2 and 1.5 for the whole of the UK, down from 1.3-1.6 a week ago, and the epidemic continues to grow "exponentially" across the country.
It is thought that the number of new infections is growing by between 4% and 9% every day.
England's R number is also between 1.2 and 1.5, but at a regional level it could be as high as 1.6 in the South West and East, where the local growth rate is as high as 11%.
An R number between 1.2 and 1.5 means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 15 other people.
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A spokesperson said: "Sage is almost certain that the epidemic continues to grow across the country, and is confident that the transmission is not slowing.
"While the R value remains above 1.0, infections will continue to grow at an exponential rate.
"This is currently the case for every region of England and all have positive growth rates, reflecting increases in the number of new infections across the country."
These are the latest R estimates by NHS England region. R is the number of people an infected person will pass coronavirus on to.
- England: 1.2-1.5
- East: 1.3-1.6
- South West: 1.3-1.6
- North East and Yorkshire: 1.3-1.5
- Midlands: 1.2-1.5
- London: 1.2-1.4
- North West: 1.2-1.4
- South East: 1.2-1.4
These are the latest daily growth rate estimates by NHS England region:
- England: +4% to +8%
- East: +5% to +11%
- North East and Yorkshire: +4% to +8%
- Midlands: +4% to +8%
- South West: +3% to +8%
- North West: +4% to +7%
- South East: +2% to +7%
- London: +2% to +6%
Separate data released on Friday by a team of experts suggests a national R number of 1.16 for England.
The React study - the largest of its kind - found that coronavirus cases are doubling about twice as fast in the North West, Yorkshire and the West Midlands compared with the whole of England.
The experts warned the country was now at a "critical point in the second wave", and current measures such as the rule of six and restrictions in the North of England will not be enough to bring the epidemic under control.
A separate study by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found that Covid-19 cases in England have doubled in a week, feeding concern that the epidemic is once again growing exponentially.
The ONS estimate said new infections of in private households in England were around 17,200 per day in the latest week to October 1, compared to 8,400 per day in the previous week.
The daily breakdown of the ONS figures showed that on October 1, estimated daily cases had risen to 21,300.
An estimated 224,400 people in England had Covid-19 in the latest week, or 1 in 240 people, a 92% increase in infections compared to the previous week.
Tougher restrictions for England - and possibly a new three-tier local lockdown system - are expected to be announced on Monday in a bid to curb a second wave of the virus and avoid a second national shutdown.
Downing Street said it "won't hesitate to act" to tackle rising coronavirus cases amid reports that new restrictions will be imposed next week.
A Number 10 spokesman said: "We have been clear that we are seeing cases rise across the country, especially in the North East and North West.
"And as we have been clear throughout the pandemic, we will continue to keep all that data under review and won't hesitate to act in order to protect communities and save lives."
The spokesman did not confirm when the Government would announce a new three-tier local lockdown system, which is reportedly to be outlined on Monday.
Council leaders in the North East of England have agreed they will oppose any further coronavirus restrictions in the region, including a proposal to close bars and restaurants.
Gateshead Council leader Martin Gannon confirmed that northern council bosses were due to have a meeting with a senior Whitehall official on Friday afternoon, but it had been delayed.
Mr Gannon said before the meeting, the council leaders of Northumberland, Newcastle, South and North Tyneside, Gateshead, Sunderland and County Durham had "agreed a line".
He said: "We do not want further restrictions.
"Despite three sets of regulations in 10 days and the ensuing mixed massaging, there is evidence that, excluding higher education students (which is a national problem), new cases are beginning to plateau.
"We need more time, clearer messaging and greater support from Government."
Downing Street insisted that the Government had been "working closely with local leaders and local authorities throughout the pandemic" despite criticism from some mayors that they have not been consulted.
A Number 10 spokesman also declined to deny that further local lockdown measures could be set out later on Friday, saying: "We will keep all the data under review and if we deem it necessary to act, we will."
