Measures to tackle coronavirus could go on for more than a year if the Government is unable to control the spread, according to health experts.
Already those with underlying health conditions and the over-70s have been told they should avoid social contact for 12 weeks.
But yesterday, the Imperial College Covid-19 response team, which has been advising the Government, processed new information from Italy and concluded the limited measures in place before would still result in a “large number or deaths”.
Professor Neil Ferguson said it became clear what had been envisaged as the worst case – with a death toll of 250,000 or even higher in the UK – had become “the most likely scenario”.
The team believes it may be necessary to keep the new measures, announced by Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon on Monday, for more than a year, aiming for fewer than 20,000 deaths.
Yesterday, Johnson told his Cabinet that the country is “engaged in a war against the disease which we have to win”.
The UK Government’s deputy chief medical officer Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said he could not rule out the strict measures having to last for a year or more but predicted they will last at least “several months”.
He said more people will encounter the virus and become resistant but added it “will take time”.
A spokesman for the Scottish Government said: “We accept it is likely this situation will have to last for a significant period of time and that the measures we are taking can be sustained and maintained.”
