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We don’t yet know whether they are being spared. It may be that in low-income, poorly resourced countries in Africa, cases are being missed, although they are doing all they can, with support from the World Health Organization. The other possibility is that there may be something particular to Africa that reduces the transmissibility of the virus. That could include the outdoor life that people lead in many regions.
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Why is there so much concern over this virus when for most people it'll be no more than a cold? How does the Covid 19 death rate compare to deaths through traffic accidents and traffic-caused respiratory illness, which we as a society seem to just accept as inevitable?
Hi. For many people, the symptoms will be comparable to seasonal flu in terms of severity but the overall profile of the disease, including the death rate, look more serious. Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical officer, says he expects the death rate to be 1% or possibly a bit lower, once data from more widespread testing is available. That’s still about 10 times higher than the proportion who die from seasonal flu. According to government figures, there are around 1,700 road deaths each year. Worst case scenario estimates suggest there could be up to 100,000 UK deaths from coronavirus – that is not what people expect to happen, but governments need to have contingency plans in place for a range of possible outcomes.
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Q: Why will the virus ‘peak’ in the next 2 weeks and then slowly get better? Why won’t it continue to get worse and worse until everyone has it ? Tim, 34, self-employed courier, Somerset
There’s been a bit of confusion over this after the deputy chief medical officer, Dr Jenny Harries, said earlier this week that the start of the UK peak of the epidemic could come within the next fortnight. On Wednesday, the health secretary, Matt Hancock, clarified this, saying that in the next couple of weeks we may see the numbers start to rise very quickly.
Here’s what he said to clarify: “I just want to slightly correct the point about the deputy chief medical officer who said that in the next couple of weeks, we may see the numbers starting to rise fast to their peak. We do not expect numbers to peak in the next fortnight, we expect numbers to continue to rise after that and the peak would be in a matter of a couple of months, rather than a matter of a couple of weeks. This is a marathon and not a sprint.”
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How did the virus spread from Wuhan to the rest of the world but other Chinese cities have got off (relatively) lightly? Is there anything we can learn from this?
The Chinese government cracked down hard on the outbreak in Wuhan. You may remember that people in countries such as the UK and the US talked of “draconian measures”. The city went into lockdown, everybody was off the streets and all workplaces were closed. They didn’t act fast enough to stop the spread to other Chinese cities, but similar lockdowns were enforced once those also had cases.
Experts now say that these measures worked and delayed the spread to other countries, although it couldn’t stop it because of the amount of travelling everyone does these days. Some countries are now imitating China’s actions. The lockdown in Italy is very reminiscent of what happened in Hubei.
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Q: How long does the virus stay ‘alive’ on a surface when touched by a carrier? Craig, semi-retired academic, Cammeray, NSW, Australia
The virus can linger for 48 hours or possibly 72 hours on a hard surface, such as a hand rail on a bus or train, but less time on a soft surface. That is why the advice is to wash your hands regularly and to avoid touching your face, to prevent the virus getting into your nose, mouth or eyes. It’s hard to completely avoid touching any surface, so keep washing your hands!
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The question of whether shutting schools is the right call is really tricky as there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how big a role children are having in spreading the virus. So far children have made up a tiny minority of positive test results, but there hasn’t been widespread random testing so it’s not known whether they’re getting it and showing mild or no symptoms (this is likely) and, if so, how infectious they are. Early evidence suggests that a lot of asymptomatic transmission is going on in general and children could be a part of that.
What we can be more confident of is that handwashing and social distancing do not work in school settings, so if children are passing it on then schools are basically the perfect breeding ground for infection and can act as a fountain of illness for the local area. Closing schools also reduces groups of adults congregating. So most experts think that closing schools has a role, but that needs to be balanced with the disruption and potential for also taking health workers out of work as a result. Some are definitely of the opinion that the UK should follow moves by other European countries and be taking more extensive steps already. See Sarah’s interview with Prof John Ashton today.
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Who is advising the government and how closely are they following their recommendations?
The chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and the chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, both of whom are doctors, are advising the government. They get their data and information from the World Health Organization and a range of experts in public health and infectious diseases.
What we don’t know is exactly what Whitty, Vallance and other experts are telling the government. There are some critics who contend that there is a lack of transparency – see the story I have just written based on an interview with Prof John Ashton, which is here.
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Just under 15 minutes left to ask your questions on coronavirus – how to protect yourself, what the symptoms look like and what it might mean for you.
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Q: Can you catch the coronavirus more than once? Antony, 72, retired, Sheffield
It is still unknown whether people have long-term immunity to the coronavirus once they’ve been infected once. There has been one reported case of a Japanese woman who tested positive, was given the all-clear and then tested positive again, suggesting that she had been re-infected. However, it is possible that one of these test results was inaccurate, and the broader picture, where we’ve seen the outbreak brought under control in the Chinese city of Wuhan, suggests that people have short-term immunity.
There are already four other coronaviruses circulating that cause about a quarter of common colds. For these viruses, people have immunity in the weeks or months after infection, but over time this begins to wane, meaning it is possible to catch the same strain again the following year. It is possible that Covid-19, which has more serious symptoms, also triggers a more enduring immune response, but we’ll only know this for sure when scientists have had longer to test and re-test people.
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Q: How long will the coronavirus last? Is it a few months or more like a year or two? Piper, 20, student, Sydney
The epidemic in the UK will peak and then the numbers will start to drop, as has happened in China, but it’s hard to say how long that will take. The UK strategy now is to try to delay the peak into the summer months. The numbers will fall – as they have in China and South Korea – but maybe not to zero. What we will almost certainly need is a vaccine to stop Covid-19 completely and we know that will take at least 18 months.
if a someone goes into labour and they (or birthing partner) have the virus or flu like symptoms, will they be allowed anywhere near a hospital?
Hi there. Yes, the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists and the Royal College of Midwives have set out some guidance on this. As case numbers increase, it might not be possible to isolate patients with coronavirus and instead hospitals are considering options such as organising pregnant or postnatal women admitted to hospital into cohorts, separating out women with symptoms to reduce the chances of transmission on wards.
They also give advice saying that risks to the baby seem to be low, so at the moment, even if a woman gives birth while infected, they’re not advising that she be separated from the baby or avoid breastfeeding because the downsides of this probably outweigh any potential risks. You can read my story on pregnancy from this week here.
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Most people who develop symptoms from the coronavirus get a dry cough, temperature, tiredness and shortness of breath. These tend to come on within two to 14 days of exposure. Some get aches and pains, nasal congestion, sore throat or diarrhoea, all of which are typically mild and come on gradually.
One in six can become seriously unwell and develop breathing difficulties. It is typically older people and those with existing medical conditions, such as high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, that are hit hardest.
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Q: I can understand people panic-buying hand sanitiser and dried goods. But why are people around the globe stocking up on toilet paper in particular? Jim, Bristol
The toilet paper buying craze began due to feared supply chain issues in Hong Kong, prompted by factory closures in mainland China. As rumours of impending shortages began to circulate, people in Hong Kong began stacking their shopping trolleys and there was even a reported armed robbery of hundreds of loo rolls.
Images shared on social media and news reports spread the trend far beyond countries that rely on factories in the Hubei province for toilet paper supplies – basically, people see other people buying toilet paper and don’t want to be the one that finds themselves left behind.
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Thanks for all the questions so far – keep them coming in. Our experts will be on hand to answer them until 2pm GMT.
It’s unlikely that the virus will be any less infective in the warmer weather, but the transmission rate may well go down as people spend more time outdoors. The virus is transmitted in water droplets from coughing, talking at close quarters, or touching surfaces where the virus has landed, usually in closed rooms. That’s also why colds and flu go down in the summer – nothing to do with catching a chill!
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Hi innriver. There are lots of teams around the world working to develop a vaccine – and the first stages of development have been very quick compared with previous epidemics, such as Ebola. Some potential vaccines are already being tested and human trials are expected to be under way next month. However, it’s still a long path from the first human tests to having something commercially available that can be given to large groups of healthy people.
Testing needs to go through various iterations, increasing from groups of hundreds and then thousands of volunteers, to make sure a vaccine is effective and doesn’t have any serious side effects. So we’re looking at a time frame of a year to 18 months.
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Q: My questions is regarding soap substitutes. An acquaintance suggested using powdered laundry detergent for hand washing if hand soap, bar or liquid isn’t available. What do you advise? Nancy Cadet, 68, retired, Pedasi, Panama
Detergent is another form of soap and should work just as well, even if it’s a bit harsh on the skin! You might like to take a read of this piece that we published.
Q: Do people that die of coronavirus have normal funerals? Yaniv L, 42, software engineer, New York, USA
Hi Yaniv. Yes, there isn’t any need to cremate bodies as there is in the case of Ebola, where bodies can be very infectious postmortem. However, in some countries, such as Italy, public gatherings including funerals have been banned, meaning people have not been able to mourn the deaths of friends and family in the traditional way.
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Q: Like some of your other readers, I have a fever and a cough, and feel generally rubbish. But because I haven’t been in any of the affected countries, and haven’t (knowingly) had direct contact with anyone who has the virus, the NHS 111 advice is no use.
In order to get further advice, it looks as though I’d have to lie and claim to have visited one of the countries or had direct contact with someone testing positive for the virus. I may have as I travelled on the Eurostar last week, but how can I know? Feel in a bit of a bind. Mick Seals, 69, retired, Sheffield
The government has said it is going to increase testing so they can do 10,000 a day. However, it is still going to be those people in the brackets you mention – plus those in hospital already with respiratory problems. They don’t have plans to test everyone with a cough and fever – probably because those symptoms are very common and the NHS is going to be under serious pressure because of Covid-19. Probably the best plan is to try to self-isolate at home and get well, since 80% of people will have only mild disease – but call NHS 111 quickly if your symptoms worsen.
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Q: Is there an estimate for the number of intensive care beds that it will be possible to provide in the UK in, say, two months’ time? Including the provision of ventilators? Rupert, Somerset
There are more than 4,000 intensive care beds across the UK – but about four-fifths are occupied, according to the latest figures. As case numbers increase, the NHS will cut back on various types of surgery and treatment, to relieve some pressure on intensive care. NHS chiefs have said hospitals should aim to expand this capacity “several-fold”. But there is obviously a limit to how many ventilators are available and it won’t be possible to dramatically increase the number of trained ICU doctors and nurses on wards. There will be a particular strain on staffing because health workers themselves are at higher risk of being infected.
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Q: If you get Covid-19 does that make you immune? Ilana, 60, Brazil
Yes, we think so, although it’s not absolutely certain. There have been reports of one or two people apparently getting the virus more than once. But it’s quite possible that they were not correctly diagnosed the first time, or that they were not completely free of the virus by the second time they had the test.
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Q: I’m involved in organising an event of 100–150 people next week in Scotland. Should we cancel? Anonymous, Fife
It’s a difficult call and one that many people are having to make. There isn’t public health guidance that suggests you should call this off at the moment, but this could change very quickly so as well as the health risks, you’ll need to calculate the costs of calling it off now versus at the last moment, and also whether it is something that could easily be postponed.
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Q: My colleague has tested positive for coronavirus and I have been told to self-isolate as I had contact with him. Does my partner and other people I have been in contact with also need to self-isolate? Anonymous, Liverpool
You need to talk to Public Health England about that – they should advise depending on the circumstances. The virus is most easily transmitted within families living at close quarters, so they may suggest your partner stays home too, but it’s unlikely they would advise any more casual contacts to do so. But check with them.
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Q: What happens if I get Covid-19 symptoms while I’m on holiday abroad? Lucy, 39, Project Manager, Wakefield
Hi Lucy! This would depend on where you are and how serious your symptoms are. Broadly speaking, if you think there’s a chance you’ve been exposed or have symptoms that are not likely to be simply a cold or flu (such as a dry cough, tightness in the chest or trouble breathing) you should self-isolate, follow local public health advice and seek local medical help if necessary. You should avoid taking local public transport or flights if you are unwell.
Q: Do we have any information on how at risk people with asthma are? Tony, engineer, Berkshire
The chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, said at a briefing that people with mild asthma would probably not be at increased risk of problems - Covid-19 for them would be similar to catching a bad cold or flu, so not pleasant but not in the serious risk category. That may be different for those with severe asthma.
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Q: Why is the UK government not recommending working from home or taking any measures when other countries have already stepped up on their actions? Daniel, 35, works in the IT industry, Scotland
Many people are asking the same question. Some epidemiologists believe that in the UK, people who can work from home should already be working from home. Plenty of organisations have enforced this and it should certainly slow the spread of the virus because you have fewer people commuting and mingling at work. The government has so far held off on this. They want to stagger the rollout of different measures, introducing each one when they think they’ll get the greatest benefit. But that advice could change at a moment’s notice and as early as today.
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Q: Could you clearly define the term ‘underlying health conditions’? Which conditions significantly affect susceptibility? Nick Young, Vega de Pas, Cantabria, Spain
Based on data from China, doctors believe that some people are at higher risk of suffering very severe symptoms. These include older adults and people with serious chronic conditions that either affect the immune system or respiratory systems. So this would include heart disease, diabetes, any auto-immune disorders, serious asthma and other lung conditions. However, experts are still working to understand who is most at risk and how they can best protect themselves.
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Between 1pm and 2pm GMT our experts will be answering your questions on coronavirus: what the symptoms are, how to protect yourself and what it might mean for you.
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Following a callout we have received more than 800 questions so far. If there is something you would like to know about coronavirus, you can fill in our form or leave a comment below.
Is there any particular reason why Central African countries seem to be spared of the virus? Is it because of lack of travel to those region, lack of testing/detection or is the warmer climate protective against the spread of the virus?