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Dublin Live
Dublin Live
Health
Darragh Berry

Coronavirus Ireland: Experts say country has already passed COVID-19 peak with 401 deaths in total expected by August

Health experts in the US have said that Ireland has already passed its coronavirus peak and will reach a total of 401 deaths by August.

The data published by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US also confirmed that resource use of hospital and ICU beds in the country passed its peak on April 4.

The model forecast suggests that Ireland passed its COVID-19 peak for daily deaths yesterday, April 6, when 16 more deaths and 370 new cases were confirmed.

However, this evening, the Department of Health revealed that a further 36 people had died from the virus - taking the death toll in the State to 210. However, the number of new confirmed cases dropped to 345.

Research from the American university is assuming that social distancing measures will remain in place until at least August after looking at the predicted spread and impact of coronavirus in 29 European countries.

The report predicts that there will be more than 150,000 deaths in total across Europe in what it describes as the "first wave" of the killer virus.

The model forecasts that Ireland will hit 401 deaths by May 2 before flat lining until August.

Predicted deaths per day (IHME)

Best and worst case death scenarios have also been projected with experts suggesting that the total number of deaths in the country could range from as little as 329 to a high of 510 in total by the start of August.

Total deaths predicted in Ireland (IHME)

IHME director Dr Christopher Murray said: "It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates.

"Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates. Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions."

He concluded: "To decrease the risk of a second wave in places where the first wave is controlled by robust social distancing, governments would need to consider mass testing, contact tracing, and quarantines for those infected until a vaccination is available, mass produced, and distributed widely."

You can find more information on Ireland's statistics from the report here.

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