Up to 50,000 deaths from Covid-19 could be saved over the next two years through the introduction of mandatory face coverings in public places, combined with effective testing and tracing, new research has shown.
At present, face coverings are mandatory on public transport and in hospitals in England – and are recommended in crowded places, such as busy shops.
The UK’s test and trace programme has meanwhile yet to be fully implemented. Last week, figures from the Department of Health and Social Care showed that a third of people testing positive failed to provide details of their recent contacts.
But research conducted by University College London (UCL), the University of Edinburgh and the University of Haifa has found that extensive testing, tracing and isolation, and the widespread use of face coverings, could dramatically cut the number of future deaths from coronavirus.
The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, suggests that the UK death toll could be capped at around 52,000 – roughly half the deaths that might otherwise be seen without these policies – at an intervention cost of roughly £8bn.
The findings were based on a government death toll of just over 40,000 people by 5 June – although other estimates put the figure much higher.
An estimated £700bn in GDP could be saved over the next two years, the study added.
The researchers also suggest that short additional lockdowns may be needed to drive down the number of Covid-19 cases further to allow the implementation of a large-scale test-and-trace programme.
The model assumes that all people with symptoms are tested and all their contacts are traced and do self-isolate.
Lead author Dr Tim Colbourn, from UCL’s Institute for Global Health, said: “Our results make a strong case for expanding testing and tracing immediately to control Covid-19 spread until a vaccine or highly effective drugs are available.
“By clearly showing the health and economic benefits that such a system could lead to, we hope our study will help to galvanise support for integrated testing, tracing and isolation for the UK.”
Additional reporting by PA
