A new report has warned as many 3.3 million people in Africa could lose their lives to coronavirus if intervention measures don't slow down its spread.
The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) report predicts between 300,000 and 3.3 million Africans could die as a direct result of Covid-19 if it is not stopped in its tracks.
Africa’s 54 countries have so far reported fewer than 20,000 confirmed cases of the disease, just a fraction of the more than two million cases reported globally.
Africa has recorded more than 1,000 deaths from Covid-19 so far as of today, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.
In one high-profile case, Nigerian officials announced that the president's chief of staff has died.
The government said Abba Kyari, chief of staff to President Muhammadu Buhari, died on Friday after falling with coronavirus.
Mr Kyari had been considered by some as Nigeria's most powerful government figure, and his infection was widely noted in Africa.
His death came on the same day as the UNECA's reports dire warnings about the threat facing Africa.
It emphasised that the spread of the virus to Africa would be particularly disastrous because populations of some of the continent's countries are so susceptible to outbreaks.
UNECA outlined the troubling conditions that it says will put people in some parts of Africa at grave risk.
Its report warns 56% of the urban population is concentrated in overcrowded and poorly serviced slum dwellings, excluding North Africa.
Only 34% of the households have access to basic hand washing facilities.
A total 71 % of Africa’s workforce is informally employed.
UNECA warns most of that workforce cannot work from home, limiting ability to impose the kinds of social distancing restrictions being deployed by countries like the UK.
The report emphasises that close to 40% of children under five years of age in Africa are already undernourished.
And of all the world's continents Africa has the highest prevalence of certain underlying conditions, like tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS.
Many African countries also have lower ratios of hospital beds and health professionals to serve their populations than other regions.
They are also highly dependent on on imports for its medicinal and pharmaceutical products, and suffer from weak economies.
"Unable to sustain health and lockdown costs, the continent is vulnerable," the report warns.
UNECA has modelled four scenarios based on the level of preventive measures introduced by African governments.
In the total absence of such interventions, the study calculated over 1.2 billion Africans would be infected and 3.3 million would die this year.
Africa has a total population of around 1.3 billion.
Most of Africa, however, has already mandated social distancing measures, ranging from curfews and travel guidelines in some countries to full lockdowns in others.
Yet even its best-case scenario, where governments introduce intense social distancing once a threshold of 0.2 deaths per 100,000 people per week is reached, Africa would see 122.8 million infections, 2.3 million hospitalisations and 300,000 deaths.
Fighting the disease will be complicated by the fact that 36% of Africans have no access to household washing facilities, and the continent counts just 1.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people.
By comparison, the UK has 3.7 hospital beds per 1,000 people, while France has a little more than seven per 1,000.
Africa’s young demographic - nearly 60% of the population is below the age of 25 - should help stave off the disease.
On the other hand, 56 per cent of the urban population is concentrated in overcrowded slums and many people are also vulnerable due to HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malnutrition.
Africa imports 94% of its pharmaceuticals, the report said, noting that at least 71 countries have banned or limited exports of certain supplies deemed essential to fight the disease.
Virus to hit Africa's vulnerable economies hard
“In a best-case scenario ... $44 billion (£35b) would be required for testing, personal protective equipment, and to treat all those requiring hospitalisation,” the UNECA report stated.
However, that is money Africa does not have - as the crisis could also shrink the continent’s economy by up to 2.6%.
“We estimate that between 5 million and 29 million people will be pushed below the extreme poverty line of $1.90 (£1.50) per day owing to the impact of COVID-19,” the agency's report continued.
Nigeria alone will lose between $14 billion and $19.2 billion (£11.2b and £15.4b) in revenues from oil exports this year. And the prices of other African commodities exports have plummeted as well.
Lockdowns in Europe and the United States also imperil Africa’s $15 billion (£12b) in annual textile and apparel exports as well as tourism, which accounts for 8.5% of Africa’s GDP.
Africa’s young demographic - nearly 60% of the population is below the age of 25 - should help stave off the disease.
On the other hand, 56 per cent of the urban population is concentrated in overcrowded slums and many people are also vulnerable due to HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malnutrition.
Africa imports 94% of its pharmaceuticals, the report said, noting that at least 71 countries have banned or limited exports of certain supplies deemed essential to fight the disease.
“To protect and build towards our shared prosperity at least $100 billion (£80b) is needed to immediately resource a health and social safety net response,” the UNECA report stated.
UNECA is also backing a call by African finance ministers for an additional $100b (£80b) in stimulus, which would include a halt to all external debt service.
