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ABC News
ABC News
Health
By Casey Briggs

Victoria may be experiencing a spike, but it's worth keeping a sense of perspective

From a daily average of three coronavirus cases in Victoria a fortnight ago, to 23 today.

While federal health authorities are relaxed about the current outbreak, things are clearly troubling enough to warrant this week's major intervention in Melbourne.

The state has recorded 160 new coronavirus cases in the past week.

The last time more were recorded in a seven-day period was April 9.

And unlike the earlier stages of the pandemic, most are now being infected on Australian soil, rather than bringing the virus in from overseas.

The good thing is that the growth in cases has been slower than the scary looking exponential curves we're used to seeing overseas.

Thirty new cases today is similar to yesterday's figure.

Keep an eye on the number of community transmission cases, those cases where a source of infection can't be found.

While there were a lot of those being found earlier this week, for the past two days the numbers have been lower.

But there are still many cases under investigation.

With community transmission rates as high as we've seen this week, we have to assume there is more virus in the community than we know about.

The Victorian Government is clearly worried enough about the virus spreading further to launch a major testing blitz.

Medical staff are going door-to-door hoping to test at least half the residents of 10 suburbs with a "community transmission challenge" by the end of next week.

This is the first time in Australia that authorities have been actively trying to catch asymptomatic carriers of the virus.

That means case numbers may continue to look worse for several days, regardless of whether the situation is coming under control.

Australia's Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy said an outbreak like this is precisely what he had expected.

"The fact that we're not seeing a major escalation in numbers is reassuring and we are very confident that the Victorian response … is good, strong and appropriate," Dr Murphy said.

People watching on from north of the Victorian border should remember: it could be you next

"We're very likely to see more such outbreaks, not just in Victoria. It could be anywhere in the country," Dr Murphy said.

"We're prepared, we're responding and we're very, very comfortable with the way things are going."

While locally acquired infections are rare at the moment in New South Wales, they are still occurring, including five cases in school students and staff in the past month.

Since Monday there have been three cases of community transmission, where a source of infection is yet to be found.

As long as the virus is still circulating in the community, the risk remains for fresh outbreaks.

It's also worth keeping a sense of perspective through this latest outbreak: Australia is currently reporting less than 0.02 per cent of the world's new coronavirus cases.

The challenge is to keep it that way.

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