India’s coronavirus cases may peak between May 3-5, according to a mathematical model of a team of scientists advising the government, a few days earlier than a previous estimate as the virus has spread faster than expected.
“Our belief is that by next week, the daily new cases nationwide would have peaked,” M. Vidyasagar, head of a government-appointed group of scientists modelling the trajectory of infections, told Reuters.
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The group previously told senior government officials in a presentation on April 2 that cases would peak between May 5-10, said Mr. Vidyasagar.
“We said (at that presentation) that it was not a matter of putting up some structures that would come up in July or August, because by then the wave will have ended,” he said.
“Try to figure out how we’re going to fight the fight for the next four to six weeks, that was the message. Don’t waste a lot of time putting up long-term solutions because your problem is right now.”
The real number of infections is believed to be 50 times more, said Mr. Vidyasagar, as many people who contract the disease show no symptoms.
