Citi analysts expect copper prices to hit record levels next year after a series of setbacks at major mines operated by Freeport-McMoRan, Teck Resources and Ivanhoe Mines. FCX stock was among the top S&P 500 gainers early Thursday, while BHP Group and Rio Tinto, two diversified miners with significant copper exposure, were both in buy zones.
JPMorgan raised its FCX stock price target to 50 from 46 on Thursday, keeping an overweight rating, based on analysts' 2026 forecast for copper and gold prices.
Tight Copper Supply Seen In 2026
Freeport-McMoRan said on Sept. 24 that two workers had died and five remained missing after a "mud rush incident" involving 800,000 metric tons of wet material. Sales from the mine are now expected to be "insignificant" in Q4, down from projections of 445 million pounds of copper and 345,00 ounces of gold.
Under a phased restart, the company expects production to be 35% lower in 2026 than previous estimates of 1.7 billion pounds of copper and 1.6 million ounces of gold.
On Tuesday, Teck Resources added to supply concerns, cutting the midpoint of its outlook for 2025 output from its Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile by 40,000 tons and its 2026 outlook by 77,500 tons. Teck agreed last month to a merger with Anglo American, with the latter issuing 1.33 shares of stock for each Teck share. Anglo stood by the terms on Tuesday, but investors may be betting on revised terms, as the stocks diverged on Wednesday.
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Canada's Ivanhoe Mines slashed its copper output outlook in June after seismic activity flooded its Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company said that some production should resume in mid-November but didn't offer any outlook for 2026 after previously having a target of 600,000 tons.
Citi upgraded FCX to buy from neutral on Tuesday, keeping a 48 price target as the stock rebounds from a sell-off following a Sept. 8 disaster at the company's Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
Citi commodities analysts wrote on Oct. 1 that their base case is a $12,000-a-ton copper price over the next six to 12 months, with a bull case of $14,000 a ton. The record price is around $11,100 on the London Metal Exchange, with the near-term futures contract currently around $10,850, up 1.9% on the day. The analysts also highlighted a positive demand outlook.
"Copper is exposed to structural energy-transition and AI trends and leveraged to a pickup in U.S. and global growth expectations," they wrote.
Analysts Tout FCX Stock
Wells Fargo started coverage on Freeport-McMoRan on Tuesday with an overweight rating and 47 price target, naming the stock a Top Pick, according to a write-up at The Fly investment news site. Higher commodity prices from a tight market in 2026 will help offset production losses at Grasberg, Wells Fargo said.
Citi analysts said the Grasberg incident offered a rare opportunity to buy major copper mining stock FCX at a discount, The Fly wrote.
FCX, BHP, RIO Stock Action
FCX stock climbed 2.9% early Thursday. That comes after Wednesday's 5.3% rally, which saw FCX reclaim its 50-day moving average, a key technical support level.
BHP Group added 1.2% to 56.75 early Thursday. On Wednesday, BHP rose 1.6%, reclaiming a 55.38 buy point from a cup-with-handle base, according to MarketSurge. BHP said in a May presentation that copper provides 39% of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. That's the highest among its diversified mining peers, the company said. Plus, copper output should grow to 900,000 to 1 million tons per year from 2027 to 2031.
Rio Tinto stock rose 2.2% to 67.70 on Wednesday, climbing within a buy zone from a 64.76 flat-base buy point. Copper and aluminum provided 44% of operating cash flow for Rio in the first half of 2025, up from 26% in the same period a year earlier.
Ivanhoe Electric, like Canada's Ivanhoe Mines, was founded by Robert Friedland. Ivanhoe Electric, which is developing copper projects in Arizona and Utah, surged 12.6% to 14.45 on Wednesday, clearing a 13.25 buy point from a cup base. IE stock climbed another 7.4% early Thursday. The Fly investment news site said JP Morgan put Ivanhoe Electric on its Positive Catalyst Watch list, with third-party partnerships and possible U.S. government support forthcoming.
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