“Our planet is changing before our eyes,” warned the UN’s general secretary on the opening day of COP26 stating how the findings of a new landmark report must be a turning point for humanity.
The past seven years are set to be the warmest on record while sea level rises have accelerated to a record high, according to the World Meteorological Society as leaders from around the world arrived at the UN’s crucial climate change conference opened in Glasgow.
Scientists for the organisation say despite global lockdowns as a result of the pandemic, record atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and associated accumulated heat have propelled the planet into uncharted territory, with far-reaching repercussions for current and future generations.
They also warned how this will see the world’s temperature increase by the end of this century far in excess of the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said this latest evidence - one of the flagship scientific reports which will inform negotiations at Cop26 - shows “how our planet is changing before our eyes.”
”From the ocean depths to mountain tops, from melting glaciers to relentless extreme weather events, ecosystems and communities around the globe are being devastated. COP26 must be a turning point for people and planet," he added.
According to the provisional WMO State of the Global Climate 2021 report the past seven years are on track to be the seven warmest on record, based on data for the first nine months of 2021.
A temporary cooling “La Niña” event early in the year means that 2021 is expected to be “only” the fifth to seventh warmest year on record. But the WMO warned this does not negate or reverse the long-term trend of rising temperatures.
Global sea level rise accelerated since 2013 to a new high in 2021, with continued ocean warming and ocean acidification. If we continue on our current trajectory, that rise could exceed 2m by 2100 displacing some 630 million people worldwide.
The world’s temperature has also reached an average exceeding 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the past two decades: the first time that a 20-year period has reached this threshold since records began in 1850.
For context, the Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.0 °C, preferably to 1.5 °C.
The report combines input from multiple United Nations agencies, national meteorological and hydrological services and scientific experts.
It also highlights impacts on food security and population displacement and harming crucial ecosystems. 710 million people in the developing world that don't have enough food and increasing numbers facing severe food shortage or starvation.
WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalass said “Extreme events are the new norm. There is mounting scientific evidence that some of these bear the footprint of human-induced climate change.
The provisional State of the Climate 2021 report is one of the flagship scientific reports which will inform negotiations at Cop26.
Professor Stephen Belcher, the Met Office Chief Scientist, who was involved with the production of the report, said: “The observations show that the global temperature in 2021 is a higher than average, in spite of the slight, short-term, natural cycle of cooling associated with the La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
“This year’s provisional figure shows that the temperature trend remains upward. The fact that the 20-year average has reached more than 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels will focus the minds of delegates at COP26 aspiring to keep global temperature rise to within the limits agreed in Paris six years ago.”
The Met Office’s John Kennedy, the science coordinator of the report added: “While the global mean temperature is an important indicator of climate change, we need a much wider range of data to understand how climate change and variability are affecting the planet. Temperatures in the deep ocean, rising sea levels, ice on land and sea, along with other indicators in the report help to provide a fuller picture.”
Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading, said: “2021 should stand out as something of an annus horribilis. The devastating floods in Europe, China and South America, and killer heatwaves and fires in North America and southern Europe for example, ought to serve as a canary in the coal mine to spur faster action to adapt society to the reality of a changing climate. We should remember that this canary also represents thousands of unnecessary deaths and billions of dollars’ worth of destruction.
“I only hope that during the next few days in Glasgow, these facts, which summarise the fates of millions of people, are foremost in the minds of the world's political leaders. “
Prof Rowan Sutton, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading said the report “highlights just how much is at stake in the Glasgow negotiations” adding “How much worse will we allow extreme events to become?”
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