The Cook Political Report shifted eight House seats toward Democrats — and projected that the party would expand its majority in the chamber by 10 to 15 seats — in the nonpartisan prognosticator's final 2020 forecast published Monday.
Why it matters: It highlights how President Trump's polling struggles at the top of the ticket are filtering down ballot, affecting Republicans across the country.
The state of the play: Three of the shifted seats are in Texas — and Cook expects at least one of them, the state's 24th congressional district, to flip to the Democrats this year.
- Cook believes that there are six vulnerable Republican House seats in Texas, the most of any state in the country.
- Texas has become this year's surprise swing state and has seen massive early voting turnout.
Cook's moves:
- Ark.-02 (Republican incumbent): Lean Republican to toss-up.
- N.J.-03 (Democratic incumbent): Lean Democratic to likely Democratic.
- N.J.-05 (Democratic incumbent): Likely Democratic to solid Democratic.
- N.Y.-18 (Democratic incumbent): Likely Democratic to solid Democratic.
- Penn.-17 (Democratic incumbent): Lean democratic to likely Democratic.
- Texas-10 (Republican incumbent): Lean Republican to toss-up.
- Texas-24 (Republican incumbent): Toss-up to lean Democratic.
- Texas-31 (Republican incumbent): Likely Republican to lean Republican.
The bottom line: "A combination of [Trump's] unpopularity in the suburbs, a fundraising disadvantage, and 32 open seats for the GOP to defend (to Democrats' dozen) has weighed down Republicans' prospects," writes Cook House editor Dave Wasserman.
