The Cook Political Report on Friday moved its prediction of Michigan's 2020 presidential election results from "toss up" to "leans Democratic."
Why it matters: The state, which President Trump flipped in 2016, remains a key swing state in 2020 — and can be viewed as a bellwether for an important section of the president's base due to its concentration of white, working-class voters.
- Cook based its decision on the fact that polling averages have Joe Biden leading by 10 points in the state — higher than other similar battlegrounds, like Pennsylvania — and increasingly winning over shares of Republican and independent voters there.
- But Cook's Amy Walter does note that Trump's polling currently is at a trough — and says it's not yet clear if "he's done permanent damage to his re-election prospects among" his base in Michigan.
Worth noting: In Cook's latest update, Iowa and Ohio also moved from "likely Republican" to the more competitive "lean Republican" category.
