The Conservatives would be headed for near-annihilation in the ballot box if a general election were called now, a leaked poll suggests.
Data collected by party headquarters claims the Tories would currently win just 14 seats, with one insider saying the party could be "consigned to the history books".
The same research also predicts Reform UK would swoop to victory with a 46-seat majority, The Telegraph reports.
Party campaigners are understood to be shocked by the alleged report from the Conservative Research Department in the Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ).
One Tory source said: "This is absolutely an existential threat. It goes to show the level of work that needs doing, and I don't think the leadership has always grasped to survive. This is a clear wake-up call."
Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch has faced mounting criticism from within her ranks as Nigel Farage's party looms higher in the polls, with several former high profile Tories defecting over to his side - including Dame Andrea Jenkyns, Nadine Dorries, Anne Widdecombe and sitting MPs Lee Anderson and Danny Kruger.
The insider added "I don't think [Badenoch] is a bad person" but the "task is beyond her".
A fellow Tory said the party is "heading for an extinction event" and described its performance as "just terrible".
The Conservative Party commissioned the research from Stack Data Strategy, which estimated the Tories would claim only 17 per cent of the vote.
Such as result would leave the Conservatives with four MP seats in London, three in northern England and Scotland combined, with one in the Midlands and the remaining six seats in the Tories' traditional heartland of the Home Counties.
The poll finds Reform would storm to victory with 348 seats, leaving Labour with 161, the Lib Dems with 63, and the other parties with 46 seats.
A Conservative source denied the party had commissioned the research from Stack, despite multiple sources elsewhere stating the contrary. An ally of Kemi Badenoch said she had shown the “backbone, teak and plan to take the Conservative Party back to Downing Street”.
A spokesman for Stack said: “Our expert team regularly run major polls and models so that we have the latest data on UK and US politics. This analysis, which is from the summer, was paid for by Stack Data and was not commissioned or funded by any other entity or political party.”
