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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow (now) and Martin Belam (earlier)

Tory leadership race live: candidates questioned on tax cuts, net zero and early general election – as it happened

​​Rishi Sunak Dominic Raab United Kingdom Liz Truss Nadhim Zahawi Sophy Ridge Home Office Sky News
Julie Etchingham moderates the ITV debate between Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt.
Julie Etchingham moderates the ITV debate between Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt. Photograph: Jonathan Hordle/ITV/REX/Shutterstock

Thanks for following the debate with us. We are closing this blog now, read all our politics coverage here.

The Labour party has released this statement on tonight’s debate. It’s from Conor McGinn, a shadow Cabinet Office minister.

Tonight’s debate has shown that the Conservative party is out of touch and out of ideas.

As the contenders deny their own records in government and squabble over their fantasy economic plans, what families across the country who are really struggling with the cost-of-living crisis need is a fresh start.

Only a Labour government led by Keir Starmer can offer Britain the fresh start it needs.

The ConservativeHome has now published the final results from its latest survey of party members. It suggests that Kemi Badenoch is now the candidate who could beat all others in the final ballot.

As Paul Goodman, the ConservativeHome editor, explains in his write-up, the latest results also enable both Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch to argue that Tory rightwingers should unite behind them and put them on the final ballot. He says:

The order of play is different from the result of our survey yesterday.

There, Badenoch was top with 31 per cent, Truss second with 20 per cent, Mordaunt third with 18 per cent and Sunak fourth with 17 per cent.

Here, Badenoch wins all four head-to-heads. Truss wins three and loses one. Sunak wins two and loses two. Mordaunt wins one and loses three. Tugendhat loses four.

So Camp Truss, third in the parliamentary ballot, can argue on the evidence of this survey that she could beat the top two runners in a membership ballot – so her supporters should stick with her. And not desert to right-of-Tory-centre alternatives such as Badenoch.

…And Camp Badenoch, fourth in that ballot, can say that on the evidence of this survey she can trounce all comers – including Sunak. So right-of-Tory-centre MPs should switch to her if they’re not backing her already.

These figures, more than the debate, probably explain why bookmakers’ odds are shifting. See 9.08pm.

Mike Smithson from the Political Betting website says the latest odds on who will win the Tory leadership contest imply that punters now view a Penny Mordaunt victory as less likely.

Rishi Sunak was judged by viewers to have performed best in the debate, according to a snap poll by Opinium. This is from ITV’s political editor, Robert Peston.

On Friday a similar snap poll for Opinium had Tom Tugendhat winning the Channel 4 News debate.

Tory leadership debate - verdict from Twitter commentariat

And this what some political commentators and journalists are saying about the debate on Twitter. There is no particular consensus, although overall Rishi Sunak is probably making the best impression.

From the FT’s Sebastian Payne

From Politico’s Eleni Courea

From Matt Chorley from Times Radio

From Paul Goodman from ConservativeHome

From the Independent’s John Rentoul

From Talk TV’s Julia Hartley-Brewer

From the Times’ George Grylls

From Newsnight’s Lewis Goodall

From my colleague Nesrine Malik

From the Daily Mirror’s Kevin Maguire

Updated

Tory leadership debate - snap verdict

Sometimes in TV debates there are clear winners. It often happens in the first debate of a series, when viewers do not know what to expect, and it happened last week, when Rishi Sunak and Tom Tugendhat clearly made a better impression than the others. That was the consensus commentariat view, but also the finding of a snap poll too.

But mostly debates just confirm impressions that are already fairly well lodged in the minds of people who already have a view on the candidates. They don’t “move the dial” much, although they do show how a candidate’s pitch might be evolving. Tonight’s came more into that category.

Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt would be said to have done best - but only in the sense that they were most improved from last Friday, when they were both surprisingly unimpressive (Truss because she was wooden, Mordaunt because she was shallow). Truss admitted as much tonight, when she accepted she might not be the most polished of performers, but stressed her experience. She was much stronger against Sunak than she was on Friday. Mordaunt sounded more confident, but she is struggling to define herself clearly, or quash doubts about her inexperience. Tory polling suggests that, while she may have been very popular with members as the ‘None of the above’ candidate, once she is just the Penny Mordaunt candidate, it is less appealing. (See 6.36pm.)

But Sunak probably did best on a more conventional assessment. He sounded the most polished and authoritative, and he has got through two debates now as the frontrunner in the parliamentary contest without being tripped up. For the second time in a row, he probably came off best in the economics debate with Truss by deploying a pithy soundbite. (See 9.10am.) His one-on-one question to Truss later was also the closest the debate came to real zinger. (See 7.43pm.)

And Kemi Badenoch also did well because, of the three effective insurgent candidates (people who did not serve in Boris Johnson’s cabinet), she is the most articulate, the least predictable, and the one with the most momentum. Notice how she was starting to adopt Sunak’s pitch on the economy, stressing that (like him) she considers tackling inflation the real challenge.

On Friday Tugendhat was the candidate who sounded like he most represented a clean start and a breath of fresh air. But second time round that pitch did not have quite the same appeal, and he sounded like someone who expects to be out of the contest by this time tomorrow night.

Updated

It is now time for closing statements.

Sunak says he thinks he is the best candidate to beat Labour. The stakes are high, and only he has the experience needed to deal with this. Britain’s potential is limitless. He wants to give your children and grandchildren a better future.

Mordaunt says well done if you are still watching. She wishes this had been more about you, and less about the candidates. The model for politics is broken. She has a plan to fix it, she says.

Tugendhat says the country is facing problems at home and abroad. They need a clean start. They need to restore confidence. He is ready to serve, he says.

Truss says the Tories only have two years to show the public they can deliver. She has shown what she can do on Brexit, trade and Ukraine. They need to stop apologising as Conservatives.

Badenoch says she is the candidate who will tell you the truth. She has three children. She wants the best future for them. She wants to create a strong future. The UK is a beacon. That is why so many people want to come here. She is the candidate for the future. She can make the change.

And that’s it. The debate is over.

Updated

Asked if they would favour an early general election, all five candidates say they are opposed.

They are now talking about climate change, and the net zero target.

Badenoch says if there are things in the plan that would harm people, she would change them.

Truss says she backs the net zero target. But she would get rid of green levies.

Sunak says he supports the target. But they need to bring people with them, and not take them too far, too fast, he says.

UPDATE: Here is the PA Media report with more detail of all the answers on this topic.

Mordaunt said she was committed to the target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, but “it mustn’t clobber people”.

Tugendhat told the ITV debate he was committed to “making sure we deliver the nuclear reactors to keep us green”, supporting carbon capture and storage projects and changing “the way we do wind farms” so they can be delivered more quickly.

Badenoch said the 2050 target was for a time when none of them would be in office “to be accountable for it”.

“If there are things in the plan that will bankrupt this country, I will change them, if there are things in the plan that will make life difficult for ordinary people, I will change them,” she said. “I do believe in climate change, but we have to do it in a way that is sustainable.”

Truss said she backed the target, but “we need to deliver it in a way that doesn’t harm people and businesses”, highlighting her plan for a moratorium on the green levy on energy bills.

Sunak backed the target, saying it was about the inheritance left to children and grandchildren. “But we need to bring people with us and if we go too hard and too fast then we will lose people and that’s no way to get there,” he said.

Updated

Mordaunt, Tugendhat and Badenoch all say they would not sit down with Vladimir Putin at the G20, at least in current circumstance.

Truss says it is important for the free world to face down Russia. So she would go, she implies.

Sunak says he has walked out before rather than sit down with the Russians.

Updated

Tugendhat says 10,000 troops are being made unemployed.

But he is posing his question to Mordaunt. When are you going to give people details of your plans?

Mordaunt says the polling shows she is the only one that can beat Keir Starmer.

Tugendhat says “that’s simply not true”.

And they need a narrative, Mordaunt says. Unless they have it, they will not win the next election. She is the best prepared candidate in the race?

Mordaunt puts her question to Sunak: Why won’t you raise defence spending?

Sunak says as chancellor he gave the MoD the largest uplift since the end of the cold war.

Truss asks Sunak if he favours doing more trade with China.

Sunak says he supports the government’s policy on this. They need to protect national infrastructure. But where values are protected, of course they should trade with China.

So you won’t go ahead with the economic dialogue with China?

Sunak says, where values can be protected, he favours trade.

Updated

Sunak asks Truss: You have been a Liberal Democrat and a remainer. Which one do you regret the most?

Truss says she was not born into the Conservative party. She joined it because she saw kids at her state school in Leeds not given opportunities. She says she did not go to the sort of privileged school he did.

Etchingham says she is now letting each candidate ask one other a question.

Badenoch asks Sunak: Why did you not take my warnings about Covid loan fraud seriously?

Sunak says that is wrong. Dozens of people have been arrested.

Badenoch says a minister resigned over this, and he is supporting her campaign.

Sunak says they had to get money out very quickly. They looked at a version that was going to take two weeks to get money out.

Updated

Q: Why are so many Brexit supporters backing Liz Truss, who voted remain?

Mordaunt says she is attracting people from across the party.

She has not had the platform that other candidates have had.

Badenoch says it is time to move on from Brexit, and talk about the opportunities. She is the wild card candidate, she says.

Sunak says he has the support of senior Brexiters, like Liam Fox and Dominic Raab. Now it is time to make it work. He wants to reform regulations, and expand freeports.

Truss says she is trusted on Brexit because she has delivered, on trade deals, especially with Japan and Australia. She is someone who gets things done.

Tugendhat says he agrees with Badenoch. It is time to move on.

Sunak is asked to address the issue about his wife’s non-dom status.

He says she is from a different country. But he is really proud of what his father-in-law, who set up Infosys, achieved.

Etchingham turns to what Badenoch said about Mordaunt and the Gender Recognition Act in the Sunday Times today. Badenoch told the paper:

I’m not going to call her a liar, I think it’s very possible she genuinely did not understand what she was signing off, because it’s a very complex area.

Badenoch defends her stance her comments. Mordaunt suggests that Badenoch is wrong, and she says she would not keep getting elected in her constituency if people thought she was out of touch with what the public thinks.

Badenoch says Tugendhat has not been on the frontline in policy decisions. He has not been in government.

Tugendhat says he has been on the frontline in battle. And he has been at the forefront of policy debates, he says.

Truss says she stayed in government because resigning with a war going on in Europe would not have been responsible.

Sunak says eventually he resigned from government because enough was enough.

Mordaunt says they are all good colleagues. But what they have been doing previously has not been good enough. They have not been able to move at the pace that business and science demands.

Questions about character

Etchingham says Boris Johnson was brought down by lies.

Q: What would make you a better PM?

Tugendhat says the country needs a clean start. He has demonstrated, as a soldier and in Whitehall, that he will push for changes.

Truss says she is honest. She was brought up in Yorkshire. When she says she will do something, she does it. One reason why she opposed the national insurance increase is because the Tories said she would not do it. She says she may not be the slickest performer, but she is honest.

I might not be the slickest presenter on this stage, but I think my colleagues understand in parliament when I work with them that when I say I’ll do something, I do it.

Badenoch says it took courage to resign. She has stood up for friends when they have been attacked in the media.

Sunak says he is honest. He is demonstrating that in what he is saying about tax rises.

Mordaunt says she would lead a good team. She did not even feature herself in her campaign video because she believes in teamwork.

Updated

All five candidates indicate they would not offer Boris Johnson a cabinet job

Julia Etchingham asks the candidates to raise their hands if they would be willing to have Boris Johnson in their cabinets, assuming he wanted to serve.

Not one of them raises their hand.

But Mordaunt tries to make a comment, saying Johnson got Brexit done.

Updated

Q: Is a 5% pay increase for public sector workers fair?

Mordaunt says this is not the place to discuss pay levels. But she says there are other things that could be done, such as making it easier for people to move up pay grades.

Truss says as chief secretary to the Treasury she dealt with public sector pay. We cannot go back to a wage-price spiral. Inflationary pay rises would lead to high prices in the shops.

Sunak says there is probably a degree of unity on this. He thinks they all support the public sector pay review body process.

Q: What would you do about strikes?

Tugendhat says trust is key. That is why they need a clean start.

Truss casts doubt on Sunak's ability to promote growth, saying it has not happened under his chancellorship

Q: Would you change the Bank of England’s mandate?

Truss says she supports the Bank’s independent. But its mandate was last set in 1997, she claims. She says the Japanese central bank offers a model.

She can drive through change, she says.

Badenoch says the Bank is independent. But it has not been meeting its inflation target. She says we need to be bolder about challenging its orthodoxy.

Sunak says he is worried by these comments. Over the long term inflation has been 2%, he says, implying the Bank has been successful.

Truss says:

If Rishi has this great plan for growth, why haven’t we seen it in his last two and a half years at the Treasury?

Sunak says even Keir Starmer is criticising the leadership candidates for making unfunded promises.

If we are not for sound money, what is the point of the Conservative party?

Sunak also attacks Mordaunt for wanting to increase borrowing. Even Jeremy Corbyn did not think that was the right approach, he claims.

Sunak calls Truss's proposed tax cuts 'something for nothing economics', which he says is 'socialism'

They are now debating.

Truss tells Sunak she opposed the national insurance rise. He has raised taxes to a 70-year high.

Rishi, you have raised taxes to the highest level in 70 years. That is not going to drive economic growth. You raised national insurance even though people like me opposed it in Cabinet at the time, because we could have afforded to fund the NHS through general taxation.

The fact is that raising taxes at this moment will choke off economic growth, it will prevent us getting the revenue we need to pay off the debt.

Sunak accuses her of “something for nothing economics” (unfunded tax cuts), which amount to “socialism”, he says.

UPDATE: Sunak said:

I’d love to stand here and say ‘look, I’ll cut this tax, that tax and another tax and it will all be okay’. But you know what? It won’t.

There’s a cost to these things and the cost of higher inflation, higher mortgage rates, eroded savings. And you know what? This something for nothing economics isn’t Conservative. It’s socialism.

Updated

Questions about economy

The first question is on the cost of living.

Truss says people are struggling. She would immediately reverse the national insurance rise.

Tugendhat says he has already set out tax plans.

Mordaunt says she has not set out massive tax plans, but she has set out targeted plans. We have been taking too much money from people on the back of inflation going up.

Badenoch says she remembers flipping burgers as a job. She says tackling inflation will be her priority.

Sunak says he will tackle inflation. But he will get the economy going.

Updated

The candidates are introducing themselves.

Rishi Sunak says he is the best person to lead Britain into the future.

Liz Truss says she wants to unleash Britain’s potential.

Kemi Badenoch says she will tell people the truth.

Tom Tugendhat says he can offer a clean start.

Penny Mordaunt says she is ready to serve and ready to lead.

The programme is starting.

This is from the Spectator’s Fraser Nelson, making the point that Rishi Sunak is now the bookmakers’ favourite to be next Tory leader, with the odds suggesting he has a 37% chance of winning.

As Martin pointed out at 2.54pm, the odds have veered all over the place over the past week.

And this is from Labour, which has come up with some questions for the Tory candidates.

Updated

This is from Robert Peston, ITV’s political editor.

A cleaner cleaning the set being used for tonight’s debate earlier.
A cleaner cleaning the set being used for tonight’s debate earlier. Photograph: Jonathan Hordle/ITV/PA

Tory leadership candidates set to hold second debate, chaired by ITV's Julie Etchingham

The ITV debate for the Tory leadership candidates will start at 7pm. It will be chaired by Julie Etchingham.

The candidates left in the contest are: Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch and Tom Tugendhat.

The results of the first two ballots of MPs are here. The next ballot is tomorrow.

Updated

Earlier we highlighted the latest results from a ConservativeHome survey of party members showing that Liz Truss would beat both Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt in a head-to-head final ballot of party members. (See 4.39pm, 4.52pm and 5.15pm.)

Kemi Badenoch’s team has been in touch to point out that these results are incomplete, because ConservativeHome will not publish the figures showing how Badenoch and Tom Tugendhat would perform in head-to-head contests against all their rivals. Those results are apparently due out tomorrow.

And they may well show Badenoch as the candidate most capable of beating all the others. The latest ConservativeHome survey giving members a choice of all five remaining candidates showed Badenoch on top. It was out yesterday.

A poll of a ConservativeHome panel of Tory party members puts Kemi Badenoch in the lead.
A poll of a ConservativeHome panel of Tory party members puts Kemi Badenoch in the lead. Photograph: Conservative Home

What this really show is how Mordaunt’s campaign has tanked with party members over the last week (assuming the ConservativeHome survey is a reliable guide, which it has been in the past). A week ago the same survey showed Mordaunt beating all other rivals then in the contest in a head-to-head ballot of members.

Updated

Sunak promises to 'keep Brexit safe'

Good evening. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Martin Belam. I will be covering the Tory leadership debate tonight at 7pm, and bringing you reaction and analysis.

This morning the Sunday Telegraph splashed with Rishi Sunak’s pledge to scrap or reform all retained EU law by 2024 (essentially a Jacob Rees-Mogg policy) - although Rees-Mogg, the Brexit opportunities minister and Liz Truss supporter, doubts Sunak’s sincerity (see 5.25pm).

In a new campaign video, shot as black-and-white period newsreel, like the start of the Paddington movie, Sunak’s campaign has stressed his credentials as a Brexiter.

The video includes a reminder that Truss, unlike Sunak, backed remain (even though hardline Brexiter MPs are now backing her, and the remainers in the parliamentary party mostly support Sunak).

Alan White from PoliticsHome said earlier that it would be useful to have a tracker for where all the candidates stand on Brexit. (See 1.35pm.) Sunak sums up his position with his slogan saying he will “Keep Brexit Safe”.

(That implies Labour will dismantle it. As if, remainers might say, citing Keir Starmer’s latest speech on the topic.)

Updated

We are now just about an hour away from the second Conservative leadership debate. All five candidates – Kemi Badenoch, Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Tom Tugendhat – will be on ITV One at 7pm.

The debate is slightly shorter than Channel 4’s 90 minute event on Friday – the leadership hopefuls will be grilled by Julie Etchingham for an hour.

As well as broadcasting live on television, ITV say the debate will also be streamed live on the ITV Hub, on the ITV News website, and via their YouTube channel, Facebook and Twitter, so you’ve absolutely no excuse not to watch.

Andrew Sparrow will be along shortly to take over our coverage for the evening. Thank you for following events with me, Martin Belam, through the day, and I will see you again on the website soon.

Updated

Rees-Mogg says Sunak promise on repealing EU law is 'surprising'

Brexit opportunities minister Jacob Rees-Mogg has just described as “surprising” the pledge of Rishi Sunak to review all 2,400 EU laws transferred over to the UK statute book before the next election [see 12.28pm].

Rees-Mogg has tweeted:

This is a surprising promise as the Treasury under his leadership was insisting that taxation was exempt from the removal of EU law.

That would appear to confirm the reporting of Bloomberg earlier [see 16.17] who claimed to have seen documents from late June when the Treasury, then under Sunak’s leadership, was saying it should be in charge of any review of EU legislation, and that the Rees-Mogg timetable of sunsetting it by 2026 was too ambitious.

Updated

These are the actual head-to-head numbers in that ConservativeHome polling, which hasn’t given a margin of error figure. They show Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak picking up support among their panel as Penny Mordaunt struggles to retain it

The first quick takes on those figures from the ConservativeHome website are that they indicate the race is potentially fast-moving and very volatile. Here is pollster Matt Singh.

It could, of course, be that the methodology or sample is all over the place.

It will surely be a bit more reliable than a Lord Ashcroft poll of random people who click buttons on Twitter though, which for some reason Harborough MP Neil O’Brien is getting excited about.

Updated

Speaking of ConservativeHome, it has published its latest head-to-head run-off poll ratings, and the headline is “Both Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss would defeat Penny Mordaunt in the membership ballot were it held today” – with the important caveat “if our survey is correct”.

Paul Goodman goes on to write in the piece:

Truss is the overall winner – beating both Mordaunt and Sunak. The case Team Badenoch will be making to Conservative MPs this weekend, drawing on our result yesterday that found her the most popular candidate, will be: “Truss is finished – vote for Kemi.” To which Team Truss, pointing to this latest result, will be able to counter: “Liz can beat all comers in the final – hang on in there.”

Updated

Anecdotes are not data, but Orpington MP Gareth Bacon has just published what he says was a straw poll of Conservative members in his constituency who are overwhelmingly backing Kemi Badenoch.

Bacon goes on to say on Twitter: “She’s fearless, has a fresh perspective, and would lead a tightly focused government that gets the big stuff right. She deserves to be one of the final two candidates for members to decide.”

It does chime with the panel survey on the ConservativeHome website published yesterday, which handed Badenoch a double-digit lead.

Updated

Bloomberg has published a piece this afternoon casting doubt on Rishi Sunak’s ability to deliver on his promise today to review or repeal all transferred EU law on the statute books by the time of the next election. The Bloomberg article claims:

Documents seen by Bloomberg show that a senior Treasury official working for Sunak when he was still Chancellor of the Exchequer privately demanded that EU-derived tax laws be exempted from legislation to scrap so-called retained EU law, or REUL.

Lucy Frazer, the financial secretary to the Treasury, said in a letter that it was not feasible to simply rip up EU laws that had been integral to British tax policy and case law for four decades. She argued that the Treasury should take charge of more carefully repealing the laws during future finance bills to prevent the government from becoming mired in litigation. She also suggested it would not be possible to sunset retained EU law by 2026.

Brexit opportunities minister Jacob Rees-Mogg had written to colleagues on 1 June proposing that all of the REUL be sunset by 2026. Sunak appears to be bringing that date forward in today’s pledge, despite his own officials having cautioned against even aiming for 2026.

Read more here: Bloomberg – Sunak’s promise on EU law defies advice of his treasury team

Updated

During her media appearance on Times Radio this morning, attorney general Suella Braverman described Penny Mordaunt as “woke”, saying “My view of Penny is that she is woke, yes. I have no disrespect to her for her woke views, but I think we should call it out for what it is.”

Bury South Labour MP Christian Wakeford has tweeted in response, saying “The term woke essentially means someone who is concerned about social issues that may not necessarily affect them, largely centred on race and gender.”

“When,” he asks, “as a people did we become so unkind and unwilling to listen to others?”

Updated

The Home Office has been accused of misrepresenting the UN refugee agency’s stance on sending asylum seekers to Rwanda, in a new disagreement between the two organisations, the Guardian has learned.

The Home Office and UNHCR have clashed previously over the safety and suitability of the Home Office’s policy of forcibly removing some asylum seekers who have recently arrived in the UK on small boats or in the back of lorries to Rwanda to have their claims processed there.

A high court hearing on 10 June was told that Home Office misled refugees about UN involvement in Rwanda plans.

But despite UNHCR making its position on the government’s Rwanda scheme clear during the court hearing, the Home Office is continuing to state UNHCR is supportive of the controversial scheme.

A Home Office spokesperson said: “Our own assessment of Rwanda has found it is a fundamentally safe and secure country with a track record of supporting asylum seekers, including working with the UN Refugee Agency, which said the country has a safe and protective environment for refugees.”

A UNHCR UK spokesperson told the Guardian: “UNHCR holds serious concerns with regard to specific shortcomings of the Rwandan asylum system and Rwanda’s capacity to offer long-term solutions for those being removed under the proposed deal.”

Read more of Diane Taylor’s report here: Home Office in fresh row with UNHCR over Rwanda asylum policy

Patrick Wintour, the Guardian’s diplomatic editor, raises an interesting question about Tom Tugendhat’s suggestion that energy prices can be brought down “if we can put Putin on the back foot, if we can liberate those gas fields that he has been dominating”.

“How is Tugendhat planning to liberate the gas fields Russia is dominating?” my colleague asks. “Is he planning to invade Siberia?”

Updated

John Harris writes for us today, arguing that what is missing from the Conservative leadership contest is a Tory candidate with the faintest idea of what modern Britain is actually like:

A huge amount of energy has been expended on talk of tax cuts, and a debate only about whether they should come sooner – or, as per the view of Rishi Sunak, later. There is across-the-board backing – even from Tom Tugendhat, the supposed representative of a more compassionate Conservatism – for sending refugees to Rwanda, surely the single most monstrous Tory policy of the past 12 years. Amid baking temperatures, there has been almost no serious discussion of the climate emergency. To the delight of her backers in the rightwing media, Kemi Badenoch, the only serious contender who has appeared to offer anything radical, seems to want post-Thatcher Toryism to be taken to its logical conclusion, whereby government does no more than the “essentials”; although the politicians in charge of it must also guard against anything in the culture deemed “unsound” (remarkably, one of her chosen targets is Ben & Jerry’s ice-cream, as if she speaks for an imaginary constituency of diehards who walk past the freezer cabinets in Waitrose and spit feathers).

In response to any suggestions that fundamental change is needed, any staunch Tory would presumably cite their party’s winning of an 80-seat majority in the Commons. But its aura of strength is partly down to an equally weak and confused Labour party – and in any case, the Conservatives are now faced with an unarguable and increasingly uncomfortable set of political facts. If Badenoch, Suella Braverman and that zealous Brexit convert Liz Truss often sound like politicians frantically trying to change the country before it is too late, it may be because somewhere in their political subconscious, they well know that their time is running out.

Read more here: John Harris – Wanted: a Tory candidate with the faintest idea of what modern Britain is actually like

The Economist has updated its odds tracker for the Conservative leadership race, with Rishi Sunak sneaking back in front of Penny Mordaunt as the politician people think will most likely be the next prime minister. The graph isn’t based on polling data of the people who will actually make the decision, it is showing a % chance of becoming next Conservative leader implied from Betfair Exchange.

Most importantly, as head of data journalism at the Economist, Alex Selby-Boothroyd, points out, it is making a pleasing infinity symbol for those of you, who like me, enjoy seeing patterns in things that probably aren’t there.

Updated

Loot boxes in video games will not be banned in the UK, despite a government consultation finding evidence of a “consistent” association between the features and problem gambling.

Loot boxes have attracted comparison with gambling because they allow players to spend money to unlock in-game rewards, such as special characters, weapons or outfits, without knowing what they will get.

The features, popular in games such as Call of Duty and the Fifa football series, were effectively banned in Belgium in 2018, but the culture minister, Nadine Dorries, said the UK would not follow suit.

Instead, after a 22-month consultation, she said the government would discuss tougher “industry-led” protections with the UK’s £7bn gaming sector, drawing allegations from one expert that “foxes are guarding the hen house”.

Legislating to impose curbs or a prohibition on loot boxes as part of an expected overhaul of the UK’s gambling laws could have “unintended consequences”, Dorries said.

“For example, legislation to introduce an outright ban on children purchasing loot boxes could have the unintended effect of more children using adult accounts, and thus having more limited parental oversight of their play and spending,” the government said, in a response to the consultation published in the early hours of Sunday morning.

The government also concluded that while there was “a stable and consistent” association between loot boxes and problem gambling – identified across 15 peer reviewed studies – it could not be sure that there was a causative link.

While the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) stopped short of proposing legislation, Dorries said: “Children and young people should not be able to purchase loot boxes without parental approval. In addition, all players should have access to spending controls and transparent information to support their gaming.”

Read more of Rob Davies’ report here: UK will not ban video games loot boxes despite problem gambling findings

Stephen Bush has just published a piece at the FT in which he argues that Rishi Sunak needs to up his game in tonight’s debate – not because he wasn’t good on Friday, but because he is struggling to convince the party membership that he is for them. Bush says:

The former chancellor’s performance in Friday’s debate was brilliant. He was clear, concise and demonstrated exactly what his supporters see in him. But he doesn’t have enough support to win: every survey suggests he will lose to whoever faces him in the final round. His biggest problem, I think, is that he is seen as a tax-raising moderate by members.

Sunak’s strategy has all too often resembled that of Ken Clarke: telling Conservative members that, yes, they may disagree with him, but he is their best chance of winning an election. That tactic ended in failure for Clarke in 1997, 2001 and 2005 and there is no reason to believe it will work better for Sunak.

Bush also identified what he sees at the core of the struggle for the support of the right of the party between Kemi Badenoch and Liz Truss, writing:

Badenoch’s hopes rest on appearing to be a more straight-talking and articulate alternative for the party’s right than Truss, and it helps that she is free and able to criticise the departing government.

Truss needs to retain the support of Boris Johnson’s remaining allies in the media and the parliamentary party if she is to remain in pole position to unite the Conservative right. On TV, she managed to stick to that position by staying loyal to Johnson. Her reward is the continued loyalty and support of much of the rightwing press, but it comes at a cost because the departing prime minister is now incredibly unpopular.

You can read more here: FT – Stephen Bush – In the second debate, it’s Rishi Sunak who needs to change gear

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Dr Philippa Whitford, the SNP’s health spokesperson in Westminster, appears to have laughed off the suggestion coming out of Scottish Conservative MP John Lamont and Penny Mordaunt’s campaign that Mordaunt would be the candidate that the SNP fear winning the most.

Chief political commentator at the Observer, Andrew Rawnsley, writes today suggesting that the march of Mordaunt could take an unknown quantity all the way to Number 10:

The most unanticipated development in the race to be the next Tory leader is Ms Mordaunt’s leap from outsider to the bookies’ favourite to win. A senior figure on a rival campaign describes the rapidity of her ascent as “jaw-breaking”. Even supporters have been taken aback by “the march of Mordaunt”, as they have started calling it.

No one predicted that she would be runner-up in the first ballot of Tory MPs and then improve her vote by more than any other contender in the second. If she makes it into the run-off, which will be decided by Conservative members, the current polling has her winning. That would mean someone unknown to the vast majority of the country a week ago becoming Britain’s next prime minister.

One shrewd senior Tory puts her surge down to “the rejection of the establishments”. The “Treasury establishment”, otherwise known as Rishi Sunak, is unpopular with many Tories because he has put up taxes. The “Boris establishment”, which is largely falling in behind Liz Truss, is loathed by those Tory MPs who received no preferment from the Johnson regime and those who were repelled by its scandals.

That adds up to a large constituency yearning for an insurgent to snatch the crown. The revolt against the more established names has also helped Kemi Badenoch to use this contest to put her name in lights, but the biggest windfall of support has fallen into the lap of Ms Mordaunt.

Read more here: Andrew Rawnsley – The march of Mordaunt could take an unknown quantity all the way to Number 10

Chesterfield’s Labour MP Toby Perkins has issued a swingeing attack on Tom Tugendhat, saying: “An intelligent man says stupid things to try to appeal to people with whom he fundamentally disagrees.”

It follows Tugendhat tweeting this morning that “No matter who you’re supporting in this leadership contest, all of us can agree: Keir Starmer and Labour would weaken our defence and take this country backwards.”

Perkins points out that after 12 years of Conservative government, the British army is severely depleted.

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There have been some eyebrows raised after Penny Mordaunt tweeted out this morning that she wanted to get Brexit “re-done”, which comes from the headline of a piece she has written for the Sun, which is titled “I’ll get Brexit re-done and put more pounds in people’s pockets if made prime minister, vows Penny Mordaunt”.

PoliticsHome editor Alan White has gone so far as to suggest we need a tracker to work out where all five candidates stand on the precise status of Brexit.

However, it does look a little as if Mordaunt has fallen into the classic “but I didn’t write the headline” trap, because the only time that piece suggests Brexit needs to be “re-done” is in the headline. Here is what Mordaunt actually says:

Labour know most of all that I would fatally expose how weak their position is on Brexit and how little faith they have in our country now that it has been delivered.

Keir Starmer has desperately tried to convince us he wants to “make Brexit work”. But what he really means is that he wants to slowly chip away at it and even, subtly, to reverse it.

That is what making Brexit work is to the Labour Party. It’s about slowly but surely undermining what has been achieved so far. Keir Starmer can’t be trusted to deliver our Brexit dividend because he didn’t reach this position out of principle.

He didn’t come to his latest conclusions because of a deeply held belief in Britain’s potential outside of the European Union, as I did. Or, as was the case for many of my colleagues, Labour didn’t arrive at their position out of a firm and sincere desire to respect the democratic wish of the people.

Big challenges lie ahead to make sure that we keep Labour out of power and deliver the promised Brexit dividend.

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Dan Bloom at the Mirror has picked up on what was most likely a slip of the tongue by Tom Tugendhat during his TV interview this morning – or what could have been a potentially expensive commitment to massively expand HS2. Bloom writes:

A Tory leadership candidate today pledged a massive expansion of the HS2 rail line that could cost tens of billions of pounds.

The controversial Y-shaped line is meant to reach Manchester and the East Midlands by the 2040s, with trains continuing further north on existing track.

But Tugendhat told the BBC : “I would make sure the HS2 tracks went all the way to Scotland.”

That would be a major reworking of the railway, after Tory ministers axed plans for the eastern leg to continue to Leeds just months ago.

Tugendhat’s campaign team later told the Mirror that their candidate was simply reiterating his commitment to the union, and that “as part of his 10-year plan for growth he will explore all infrastructure options for better connecting all parts of the UK”.

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Tax and spending has been the key battleground in the Conservative leadership contest so far, with most candidates promising tax cuts, while former Chancellor Rishi Sunak positions himself as the guardian of fiscal responsibility. He has said repeatedly he will not tell his colleagues “fairytales” about what is achievable.

Dominic Raab, the deputy prime minister, hammered that message home on Sunday. “Sensible Conservative economics means you get inflation down. If not, any money that is delivered to people in their bank accounts through tax cuts will be robbed again, by inflation or interest rates and mortgage payments going up. That can’t be right,” he said.

Penny Mordaunt, who came second in the first two rounds of voting among Tory MPs, appeared to suggest she would loosen Sunak’s fiscal rules in order to afford the tax cuts she is promising – a halving of fuel duty and an increase in personal tax thresholds.

Asked about the two current rules – that debt should be falling as a proportion of GDP in three years’ time, and that the government should only borrow to invest – Mordaunt said: “I’ve said I’d do the first.”

She added: “This is not about rewriting an entire manifesto. All of us stood on a manifesto which we have yet to deliver. And we’ve also not yet delivered on the 2016 referendum.”

Read more of Heather Stewart’s report here: Raab attacks Truss’s record as Tory leadership race enters critical 72 hours

Back to Penny Mordaunt’s BBC interview again for a moment. Another awkward exchange with Sophie Raworth was when Mordaunt was asked about her assertion in 2016 that the UK did not have a veto over Turkey joining the European Union.

Mordaunt said of her now much-analysed interview, “That’s a classic example of the campaign we [Leave] were up against.”

She maintains that because David Cameron had promised Turkey that the UK would support its membership bid, in effect the veto was off the table.

She told Raworth this morning “Just because there’s a provision in a treaty does not mean that the UK could ever have used that. To go back on those undertakings he had given to Turkey – a key Nato ally – would have been crazy. We didn’t have a veto because we couldn’t use the provision in the treaty.”

The European Commission website has this to say about the process of admitting Turkey into the EU:

Turkey was declared a candidate country in December 1999. Negotiation talks were opened on 3 October 2005 and Chapter 27 was open for negotiations on 21 December 2009. Technical discussions are on-going in areas such as water, waste, nature protection or horizontal legislation.

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Amid all the noise of the Conservative leadership contest, there is still some actual government to be done, and the Department for Transport has today issued an “Aviation Passenger Charter”.

Robert Courts, who is minister for aviation and maritime, tweets: “Air travel is back – but the scenes we’ve seen at airports recently are unacceptable. That’s why today we’re launching a new charter which will inform UK passengers of their rights, giving peace of mind as they get back to travel without restrictions.”

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Sunak pledges to review 2,400 transferred EU laws before next election

Rishi Sunak is touting on social media a piece he has written for the Sunday Telegraph, promising: “If I am elected, by the time of the next election, I will have scrapped or reformed all of the EU law, red tape and bureaucracy that is still on our statute book and slowing economic growth.”

The paper describes Sunak as “brandishing his Brexiteer credentials”. Edward Malnick writes:

The former chancellor pledged that he will have “scrapped or reformed all of the EU law, red tape and bureaucracy that is still on our statute book and slowing economic growth” by the time of the next election if he succeeds Boris Johnson as prime minister.

Sunak said he would task a Brexit minister and a new Brexit Delivery Department with reviewing all 2,400 EU laws transferred over to the UK statute book after the UK’s exit from the bloc. He would demand the first set of recommendations as to whether each law should be scrapped or reformed “within my first 100 days in the job”.

Specific pledges included overhauling retained EU regulations “to trigger a Big Bang 2.0” for the City, with his team saying he would set a target “to make London once again the world’s leading financial centre by 2027”.

He also said he would replace the EU-derived GDPR data laws with “the most dynamic data protection regime in the world” and cut red tape slowing down clinical trials.

  • This post was amended on 17 July 2022 to remove a reference to Sunak supporting remain in 2016. He supported leave.

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Opportunities have been missed to prepare the UK for future pandemics, the former vaccines tsar has said.

Dame Kate Bingham, the managing partner at life sciences venture capital firm SV Health Investors, played a crucial role in the UK’s efforts to vaccinate the population against Covid. As head of the UK vaccine taskforce between May and December 2020 she led a team that persuaded the government to back a wide portfolio of potential jabs, securing millions of doses.

Speaking to the Guardian on the anniversary of legal Covid restrictions being lifted, Bingham praised quick government decision-making during her time leading the taskforce, as well as Boris Johnson’s willingness to put money into the vaccines upfront.

But she said there had since been missed opportunities – including failing to bring scientific and commercial expertise into the government, and not pursuing the creation of bulk antibody-manufacturing capabilities in the UK.

Read more of science correspondent Nicola Davis’ report here: UK has missed chances to prepare for future pandemics, says ex-vaccines tsar

Observer columnist Kenan Malik writes for us today that he would rather see a pale male PM with great policies over a ‘diverse’ one reinforcing inequality:

The possibility that Britain might have a non-white prime minister by the autumn, and the breadth of diversity among the Tory leadership candidates, has provoked much discussion.

Much of the Tory change rests on a concerted effort made by David Cameron to alter the image of the party. In 2005, he launched his “A-list”, a scheme that encouraged Conservative associations to choose from a list of preferred candidates, half of whom were women and a significant proportion ethnic minorities.

What is striking about the Tory change is that it has turned the normal diversity pyramid on its head. In most organisations, minorities are concentrated at the bottom, and get increasingly rarer the further up the organisational ladder we look, until at the very top diversity is almost nonexistent.

Not so with the Tories. The top echelon of the party – the cabinet – contains a far higher proportion of minorities than the lower rungs. Tory voters are disproportionately white – just 20% of minorities voted Conservative in 2019 and 97% of its membership is white, as are 94% of its MPs. Yet until the recent mass resignations, seven out of 32 cabinet posts were held by ethnic minorities.

Read more here: Kenan Malik – Give me a pale male PM with great policies over a ‘diverse’ one reinforcing inequality

Also appearing in the media this morning was Mick Whelan, secretary-general of the Associated Society of Locomotive Engineers and Firemen (Aslef). With strikes on the horizon he was asked on Sky News how much of a pay rise his members would settle for. He told viewers “We haven’t put an exact figure on it.”

He went on to explain “most people don’t understand that nobody in the railway industry has had a pay rise for three years.”

“The cost of living crisis is hitting all workers,” he said. Of wanting a pay rise that reflected the current rate of inflation, he said “standing still isn’t greed. Standing still is standing still. And of course we wouldn’t even be standing still, because we’re not looking retrospectively for the pay rises we didn’t get in the previous years.”

He wanted to remind the public that train drivers are not in the public sector, saying “We don’t work for the department of transport and we don’t work for the treasury. We work for all of these private companies. And they’ve all been making profits throughout the pandemic. And they’re making profits now. And it seems counterintuitive to us that they’re paying their shareholders and taking money out of the UK to fund state railways elsewhere. While we can’t get a pay rise internally.”

Challenged over people’s perception that train drivers are already very well-paid compared to public sector workers, Whelan said “I look at other workers and think they should have what we have.

“Every time I ask the question ‘if we don’t get it, will you give 22% to the nurses? Will you give it to the fire brigades to bring them up?’ … It gets very, very quiet.

“So we don’t enter into this politics of envy. For us, it’s about everybody is entitled to a pay rise. Everybody should be on the standard that we have.”

Attorney general Suella Braverman is supporting Liz Truss for the Conservative leadership now that her own campaign has ended. Braverman has been on the radio today admitting that there will be “a bit more borrowing” under the tax cut plans that Truss has pledged.

PA Media quotes her telling Times Radio: “Liz has worked in the Treasury in a senior position and when she says she wants to cut taxes, I entirely agree with her. Not necessarily entirely based on more borrowing, I think there will be a bit more borrowing but we will be able to grow our way out of the issue to afford tax cuts. We know that when we cut taxes there is more investment by the private sector, there are more jobs, there is more return to the Exchequer.”

Braverman also made a swipe over transgender rights, saying Truss “knows what a woman is”, which, she claimed, “is becoming worryingly rare these days in political debate”.

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My colleague Helena Horton has an exclusive on Penny Mordaunt’s green policy proposals this morning:

Penny Mordaunt has told Conservative critics of net zero that “environmentalism and conservatism go hand in hand” as she vowed to create “millions of green jobs” if elected leader.

The MP for Portsmouth North is the only Tory leadership candidate so far to properly set out views on climate change and the environment. Alok Sharma, the Cop26 president, told the Observer he could resign if the next leader was lukewarm on the environment. On Monday, Sharma will grill the five remaining candidates on green matters, giving each 15 minutes to speak about what they would do for the environment if elected leader.

There have been fears that a new leader will ditch the controversial replacement of the EU’s farming subsidies, with the farming lobby complaining that they do not want to be paid to conserve nature rather than produce food.

Mordaunt has committed to the eco-friendly farming plan, telling the Guardian: “I have pledged to reform EU land subsidies and instead will reward those farmers here at home who champion nature and sustainable management of the countryside.

“We have seen so many farmers already take these steps, but I want to encourage and support those who actively take steps to leave a cleaner, greener environment for the next generation. Sustainable farming for the longer term is an absolutely crucial part of how we, together, can protect our natural world.”

The former defence secretary is attempting to convince colleagues that there is a positive case to be made for net zero, because of the green jobs it would create.

Read more of Helena Horton’s exclusive here: Penny Mordaunt pledges to create ‘millions of green jobs’ if elected Tory leader

Setting out his case for Kemi Badenoch this morning on Sky News, her campaign manager Lee Rowley said that people were looking for change, and defended the perception that she lacks experience. He cited Tony Blair and David Cameron as people who became prime minister with no ministerial experience. He told viewers:

[She has] lots of ministerial experience, more ministerial experience than some of the people who by common consent have been very big figures in our political system over the past 20 years.

And I think that the public are looking for something different.

So if you are looking for something different, what Kemi offers is both the ability to change, the ability to say actually we’ve done some things, lots of things well over the last 12 years, but we need to do something different now.

Rowley, who was elected in 2017 and served as under-secretary of state for business and industry between 2021 and 2022 went on to say:

I’ve seen far too much ‘government by press release’ when I’ve both been a minister, and when I’ve been an MP.

And the difference between Kemi and what’s happened before – under all parties – is that Kemi is actually saying let’s get to the root cause of an issue, work out what the problem is.

Badenoch campaign continues attacks on Mordaunt over transgender record in government

Kemi Badenoch’s campaign have stepped up their attacks on Penny Mordaunt over her position and record on transgender rights and self-ID.

Appearing on Sky News this morning, the MP for North East Derbyshire, Lee Rowley, who is Badenoch’s campaign manager, said:

I just think it’s a very, very difficult issue with some very, very entrenched views on both sides, and needs to be handled sensitively.

Penny has a set of questions to answer. I don’t think she really answered those particularly well in the debate on Friday. We’ll see whether she does tonight.

Because either Penny did agree with self-ID and is now saying that she didn’t. Question: why?

Or Penny didn’t agree with self-ID. But it looks as though the civil service and the government, the department, decided to do it anyway. Question: how did she let that happen?

The Times yesterday reported that it had obtained leaked documents that appeared to show she had, if not supported, at least not challenged proposed changes to self-ID. It reports:

Penny Mordaunt’s claims that she has never supported gender self-identification have come under fresh scrutiny after leaked government documents suggested she backed watering down the legal process for transitioning.

Papers drawn up by civil servants appear to show she was in favour of removing at least one medical requirement needed by transgender people when she was equalities minister.

Another from February 2020 confirms the government’s support for self-identification ended after she was replaced as the minister in charge of the portfolio.

When the government eventually made a decision, in September 2020, it was under Liz Truss’s watch, and plans to allow people to officially change gender without a medical diagnosis were dropped in favour of cutting the cost of applying for a gender recognition certificate.

Mordaunt defended herself while appearing on the Sophie Raworth show this morning, saying the discussion around her role amounted to “smears”. PA Media quotes her saying:

This has been rebutted many times. We all know what is going on. This is the type of toxic politics people want to get away from.

We did a consultation. We asked healthcare professionals what they thought about the situation. That is the section I looked after. I managed that consultation. We didn’t actually on my shift produce a policy.

There are a number of smears going on in the papers. My colleagues are very angry and upset that this is how the leadership contest is being dragged down.

I was struck by this comment about the focus on transgender rights in the Tory leadership campaign, as noted by LBC producer Shivani Sharma.

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Britain’s Conservative-leaning newspapers have been handed a moment of decisive influence in the election of the next prime minister. The political analysis they project – the headlines they choose – could effectively anoint the next resident of No 10. But while these Tory titles continue to quarrel over the merits of rival candidates, the impact on voters in the Tory party is unsure.

According to Chris Blackhurst, a former editor of the Independent, the limited electoral constituency, estimated at just over 150,000 party members, is looking for guidance in a confusing battle. “This leadership election represents the high-water mark, in terms of power, for the rightwing press barons,” he said. “The entire electorate in this race is composed of their readers. Their ability to influence the outcome far exceeds any sway they might possess in a general election.”

This weekend, the Telegraph has given a midway boost to Penny Mordaunt, reporting her allegations of a “dark arts” campaign to undermine her standing. She is being targeted by smears, she says in an extensive interview that appears alongside a plea from columnist Allison Pearson for Tories not to discard Mordaunt in a fit of “self-harming madness”. Pearson also condemns Truss as a terrible communicator.

The Daily Mail, on the other hand, has made its distaste for Mordaunt abundantly clear, running a host of stories over the past week attacking her views on gender, questioning her role in the navy and even criticising the man she co-wrote a book with for “liking” a disobliging tweet. In the news empire overseen by Paul Dacre, Liz Truss is preferred, because she is seen as more plugged into traditional party interests.

Read more of Vanessa Thorpe’s piece here: Sunak challengers vie for support in rightwing press

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By the way, if you feel that the Conservative leadership contest is going at a whirlwind pace and you could do with a refresher on who is standing, what they stand for, and how likely they are to win, then Michael Savage has this guide for the Observer today.

He rates Liz Truss as the candidate that Labour would most like to face, and a “competent and convincing” Rishi Sunak as their chief concern.

Read Michael Savage’s guide here: Your guide to the Tory leadership candidates – and whether they’ll have opposition politicians quivering

Tom Tugendhat was also appearing on Sophie Raworth’s BBC One show this morning, and reiterated his call for a “clean start” after the party had been in power for 12 years.

He told viewers it was clear that the prime minister’s account of the Partygate scandal was “rather more fictional than reality”.

PA Media quotes him saying:

What we need to see is a clean start. That is the most essential issue. In two years’ time we are going to be facing Keir Starmer in a general election.

We need to make sure that all the attack lines that have been used against us in the last three years don’t come back in a general election.

We need to make sure absolutely that what we are able to deliver is championing Conservative policies and deliver a Conservative vision for the future.

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Phillipson: Labour has 'nothing to fear' from any Tory leadership candidate

Labour’s shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson was asked on Sky News earlier which Conservative leadership candidate she was most worried about fighting at a general election, and was dismissive of them all, telling viewers:

I’m not worried about any of them. I don’t think we’ve got anything to fear from any of the candidates. The reason for that is that all of them have propped up Boris Johnson and the Conservative government for 12 years now.

And over those 12 years, what have we seen happen in our country? We’ve seen our vital public services, whether that’s schools or hospitals, get worse and worse. Britain is completely stuck. You can’t renew your passport. More and more people going to food banks, rising levels of child poverty, growth at a terrible level, a consistent failure to grow our economy. And what are they all doing? An arms race around tax cuts, none of them prepared to set out what that means.

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Penny Mordaunt has just been interviewed by Sophie Raworth on BBC One and she’s had quite a torrid time of it.

In a quick-fire questions round, she has just ruled out a Scottish independence referendum, saying “it is a settled question”. She refused to discuss potential cabinet positions, says she is committed to net zero by 2050 provided it doesn’t “clobber people”, said said would not withdraw the UK from the ECHR, and that while she didn’t rule it out, she said privatising Channel 4 would not be a priority for her as “it doesn’t help with the cost of living”.

That answer on Scotland has not, of course, gone down very well in all quarters.

That reference to Turkey is just one of the tangled messes Mordaunt got herself into. The other was in questions again about her stance on transgender rights and self-ID. As ever, though, the performance possibly just confirmed what you believed already.

Incidentally, during her show, Raworth said that she had invited all five candidates to appear, but only Mordaunt and Tom Tugendhat had agreed.

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Raab on expected record temperatures: people ought to be 'resilient' enough to 'enjoy the sunshine'

The expectation of record temperatures will be dominating headlines in the UK over the next couple of days. The chief executive of the College of Paramedics warned on Sky News this morning that the “ferocious heat” could result in people dying.

Tracy Nicholls said: “This isn’t like a lovely hot day where we can put a bit of sunscreen on, go out and enjoy a swim and a meal outside. This is serious heat that could actually, ultimately, end in people’s deaths because it is so ferocious. We’re just not set up for that sort of heat in this country.”

In slight contrast, on the same programme, Dominic Raab, the deputy prime minister, said people should be resilient enough to be able to “enjoy the sunshine” during the coming days.

PA Media quotes him saying: “Obviously there is some common sense practical advice we are talking about – stay hydrated, stay out of the sun at the hottest times, wear sun cream – those sorts of things. We ought to enjoy the sunshine and actually we ought to be resilient enough.”

He wasn’t enthused at the prospect of the government giving advice about working from home, saying: “That is for employers to consider and people to decide. I’m not going to start dictating things like that. But obviously we have got more flexible working. So that will also help with this kind of thing.”

Labour’s shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson backed pupils going into school during the soaring temperatures. She told viewers: “I am sure that headteachers will be doing everything they possibly can to make sure their schools are kept as cool as possible, that children are kept out of the hot sun and are kept indoors as much as possible. I think children have missed out quite a lot already in terms of their education and it’s right for them to be there.”

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'Red wall' Tories warn: honour levelling up pledges or we’ll lose next election

Senior Tories in “red wall” seats have warned Conservative leadership candidates that the party will lose the next general election unless they re-commit to level up the country and boost investment in the UK’s deprived regions.

The warnings come as economists and business figures who are pushing the levelling up agenda in the north of England say the entire project – which was at the heart of the 2019 Conservative manifesto – risks being downgraded as candidates to succeed Boris Johnson compete to offer more generous tax cuts, and money to ease the cost of living crisis.

On Saturday night, the Tory backbencher Jake Berry, who chairs the 50-strong Northern Research Group (NRG) of Conservative MPs and was minister for the northern powerhouse from 2017 to 2020, told the Observer that if the next prime minister did not deliver on the 2019 manifesto promise, his party would be severely punished by red-wall voters. Berry agreed that if the party departed from its 2019 manifesto there would be an understandable clamour for an early election.

“These votes were lent, they were lent against a promise of performance and a promise of action,” he said. “If performance and action are lacking, do not be surprised when they don’t appear in two years’ time.

“It depends if we want to win the next election. Of course we can become a party that only concentrates on rebuilding the blue wall in the south of England, but [if we do that] we will lose.”

John Stevenson, the Tory MP for Carlisle, added: “We must not forget that the part of our last manifesto on which our large majority was based was the levelling up agenda. It is essential that the next leader is committed to that agenda.” Berry and Stevenson are backing Tom Tugendhat, who is calling for tax cuts as well as a wider national growth strategy to create a less economically divided country.

Read more of Toby Helm’s report here: Red wall Tories warn – honour levelling up pledges or we’ll lose the next election

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Both Liz Truss and Tom Tugendhat appear to have “housing” written in big letters in their media grids this morning, as they have both tweeted on the issue in short succession. Truss linked to a Telegraph piece published late yesterday in which she promised to end what she termed “Stalinist” housing targets, saying:

I want to abolish the top down Whitehall-inspired Stalinist housing targets – that’s the wrong way to generate economic growth. The best way to stimulate economic growth is bottom-up with tax incentives for investment and simplified regulations.

Tugendhat, after 12 years of Conservative government, says: “I’m serious about fixing the housing crisis.”

His outline is to increase building on brownfield sites, introduce “street votes” to give ultra-local development decisions, and to “build beautiful” by building “homes that reflect our heritage and history”.

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Badenoch accuses Labour of 'poisoning the well of society' over racism

Kemi Badenoch has given an interview to the Sunday Times in which she speaks about racism in the UK, and attacked Labour’s attitude to the issue. She told the paper:

What is amazing is how when you talk to some people in Labour they are still pretending it’s 1955 or 1948 and exactly the same as when the Windrush generation arrived.

It is as though they have to pretend nothing has changed in order to justify their own argument. It is destructive for young people, because what they hear is the message that it doesn’t matter what you do, people are going to try and stop you. It means that they don’t bother, they are defeated before they start.

She went on to say:

The argument I make to people is that we have all been the victims of crime, but we don’t all think that our country is institutionally criminal. That is not to say there is not racism in this country, but to pretend that is all that is going on and to … overemphasise it will make the country more divided.

I don’t think that people who make this argument understand that they are playing with fire. They are poisoning the well of society.

Read more here: The Sunday Times – Kemi Badenoch: Labour’s still living in the past on race [£]

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Truss supporter Iain Duncan Smith questions Mordaunt record in government

Iain Duncan Smith devoted a part of his appearance on Sky News this morning to an attack on Penny Mordaunt, questioning how hard she worked and what she had achieved. He said: “I just said that everybody’s record should be fully openly examined about their achievements.

“Everybody bar Tom Tugendhat, I think, is in government. Everybody needs to be judged on what they’ve achieved. The one person I personally don’t know what her big achievements are is Penny.

“For me, the key thing is we’re not electing a leader of the Conservative party that has two years to build their reputation. We are electing someone who will be prime minister on day one. So you need to know when they have power and authority in government, what do they do with it? What did they achieve? What were their main beliefs? What did they drive through? What tough decisions did they have to take that actually they had to sometimes go against their civil servants to get these things done?”

He added: “I know what the others have done. So I want to know, what does she believe her big achievements are? And where was she actually fighting for things? How many hours did she spend working at this? Where did she face those tough decisions?”

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Former Conservative party leader Iain Duncan Smith has also been doing the media this morning, in support of foreign secretary Liz Truss’s bid for the top job. He told Sky News viewers: “We can’t have anybody rise without trace.”

“Most of the main candidates in this debate have all been in government for the better part of two and a half years,” he said. “So it’s very important to know what their record says about them when they have the power to do things.”

Of Truss, he said: “She’s done these phenomenal trade deals, particularly with Australia, by the way, which wasn’t a follow on trade deal, and also the Trans Pacific Partnership, which opens us up to the far east, which is really delivering Brexit.

“And the other one, of course, she’s stood up for Ukraine. She’s been very, very strong about our involvement support for Ukraine, which is a really, really vital issue and also now Northern Ireland where she’s helping resolve that. So her record is strong.”

Updated

Zahawi urged to explain source of £26m mystery loans

The chancellor Nadhim Zahawi is under pressure to explain the source of £26m of unsecured loans reported by his family property firm in 2018 as he faces questions over his tax affairs.

The millions of pounds of loans helped Zahawi and his wife buy properties across Britain, including commercial and retail premises in London, Birmingham, Brighton and Walton-on-Thames in Surrey.

The Observer has established that new loans to the property firm Zahawi and Zahawi were reported in the same year that an offshore family company linked to the chancellor sold shares in YouGov, the polling firm he founded, transferring £26m to an unknown recipient or recipients.

A source close to Zahawi insisted there was no link between the money transferred out of the offshore firm, Balshore Investments, and the unsecured loans to his family property firm, Zahawi and Zahawi.

A spokesman said: “Nadhim and his wife have never been beneficiaries of any offshore trust structures.”

The chancellor is embroiled in a mounting controversy after the Observer revealed last week that a “flag” has been raised by officials over his financial affairs. He is facing calls to identify the lender or lenders who helped finance his property firm.

Read more of Jon Ungoed-Thomas’ report here: Zahawi urged to explain source of £26m mystery loans

Updated

In his TV appearance this morning on Sky News, Dominic Raab outlined some of the reasons he was supporting Rishi Sunak, including that he was the only candidate who Raab believed could go on to win a general election.

He told Sophy Ridge: “I think people want the positive perspectives, and I think Rishi has three critical things: economic plan, values, and, frankly, electability. The ability to reach out, not just within the Conservative party, but to the country, whether it’s blue or red seats, he’s the guy that can win. At the end of the day. I think that’s pretty important.”

Specifically on economics, he said: “I think he’s the one with a credible economic plan to get inflation down. If we can’t do that. We’re not going to leave people with the money in their pockets from tax cuts or anything else.

“Then driving forward, he set out some further ideas about boosting through deregulation, smarter regulation.

“I also think he’s got the right values. I’ve known Rishi since he first became a member of parliament, the values that he grew up with, a hard work family entrepreneurialism story, I’ve heard it privately let alone in the course of these leadership debates. About how when his mum was running the pharmacy, he would help her do the books. He understands, if you like, that pocket book economics, which I think is so important at the time of the cost living [crisis].”

Updated

Dominc Raab attacks Liz Truss's record at Treasury

Appearing on the Sophy Ridge programme on Sky News this morning, deputy prime minister Dominic Raab, who is supporting Rishi Sunak for prime minister, attacked Liz Truss and her record as chief secretary of the treasury.

Defending Sunak’s record as Chancellor, and addressing Truss’s claim that there had been low growth for decades, Raab said:

She can answer for her policies and her when she was chief secretary of the Treasury. People can see whether spending and headcount in the civil service went up or down. There’s not just Rishi who is going to be accountable for what he’s done in the face of a massive pandemic. I mean, did she cut taxes at that time? Did spending go up or down during her period is CST? I think, without without criticising her personally, I think it’s right that everyone on their record is is scrutinised.

Morning summary

Good morning. Later today, ITV will hold another live television debate with the five remaining Conservative leadership candidates aiming to be the next prime minister. That is at 7pm, and will be one of the last chances for candidates to impress before MPs resume voting in the contest in Westminster on Monday.

Before that gets going – and Andrew Sparrow will be here to cover that – a series of prominent supporters for each candidate have been making media appearances. There’s also the small matter of what has been in the Sunday papers. Here is a quick round-up of some of our main stories this morning:

  • Zahawi urged to explain source of £26m mystery loans: The chancellor Nadhim Zahawi is under pressure to explain the source of £26m of unsecured loans reported by his family property firm in 2018 as he faces questions over his tax affairs. The millions of pounds of loans helped Zahawi and his wife buy properties across Britain, including commercial and retail premises in London, Birmingham, Brighton and Walton-on-Thames in Surrey.

It is Martin Belam here in London. You can contact me at martin.belam@theguardian.com or send me a message on Twitter at @MartinBelam. We’ll be opening comments in due course.

Updated

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