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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Today at the Conservative party conference – as it happened

David Cameron (left) being interviewed by Andrew Marr
David Cameron (left) being interviewed by Andrew Marr Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Afternoon summary

  • Cameron has rejected an offer from the Unite boss Len McCluskey for the unions to drop their opposition to the higher strike thresholds in the trade union bill in return for being allowed to use electronic voting. (See 10.37am.)
  • Michael Gove, Philip Hammond, Michael Fallon and Lord Feldman have all used their conference speeches to depict Jeremy Corbyn as a threat to national security. Hammond suggested Corbyn’s views were so extreme they were already damaging Britain’s reputation. (See 3.22pm.)

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Chris Grayling, leader of the House of Commons, has been speaking at an event called ‘Is the state too big, too bossy and too bureaucratic?’ The resounding answer from the three speakers - Grayling, environment secretary Liz Truss and new MP Alan Mak - was yes.

Grayling warned his party against a shift leftwards in response to Corbyn’s win.

We are very much back to the old politics ... When you’ve got the country’s principle opposition party arguing for nationalisation, arguing for an increase in the size of government, planning to print money for public works projects, you realise that we as Conservatives are going to have to win the old arguments all over again. And that, to my mind, along side the job of bringing down the size of the state during this parliament in government, is the other crucial part of what we’ve got to achieve.

But our response to the crucial challenge that we face must not be to move to the left ... We must continue to embrace the free market. We need to look to shrink the size of the state ... but we must not seek to emulate our opponents by moving away from the common ground on which we win elections, which is what this country wants.

On Cameron’s EU renegotiation efforts, Grayling said: “On the EU question, David Cameron has been absolutely right to talk about sovereignty. At the end of this process we have to be a sovereign nation, able to look after our national interest.”

Chris Grayling
Chris Grayling Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/PA

Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, needed police help to get into the conference centre, the BBC reports.

And here’s another Twitter observation on the Gove speech, from my colleague Rowena Mason.

Isabel Hardman says that, because of what he had to say about social justice (see 4.24pm), Michael Gove’s speech is the first of any party conference to actually challenge the views of party members in the audience.

Broadly that’s probably true, although, at the Labour conference, Hilary Benn (on Syria) and Tom Watson (on small business) both made a modest attempt to deliver an uncomfortable message to their party.

Two Battle of Britain pilots were in the audience for Michael Fallon’s speech to the conference. The Press Association’s Stefan Rousseau has made it his photo of the day.

TUC chief condemns protesters who spat at and abused reporters

Huffington Post’s Owen Bennett says that one of the anti-austerity protesters spat in his face.

The Telegraph’s Kate McCann was with him.

Frances O’Grady, the TUC general secretary, has condemned the attack.

Michael Crick from Channel 4 News has been spat on too.

Updated

Ahead of the speech from Justine Greening, the international development secretary, the Tories played a video message from Bill Gates thanking Britain for its aid spending. Gates told them:

I want to thank all of you, in particular the prime minister and secretary Greening for giving me this opportunity to speak to you as you gather in Manchester. Your leadership is an example for the whole world to follow. For many, the world seems less safe now than it has ever been with the refugee crisis, the on-going effects of the financial crash and the recent Ebola epidemic.

We might feel the challenges are too vast and the means too few. But Britain is showing this is most definitely not the case.

People around the world want the same things you and I want - they want to work hard to provide for their family, they want to get an education for their children and they want to live healthy and peaceful lives. Helping people to help themselves is the right thing to do - it’s also the smart thing to do.

In her speech Justine Greening said that spending 0.7% of national income on aid was 100% in the national interest because “because national security threats, migration and disease don’t stop at the English Channel”.

Justine Greening
Justine Greening Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Outside the Conservative conference centre ...

Demonstrators hold placards as they march through the streets of Manchester in protest against the Tories
Demonstrators hold placards as they march through the streets of Manchester in protest against the Tories Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images

And inside ...

Delegates listen to speeches in the main hall on the first day of the annual Conservative party conference
Delegates listen to speeches in the main hall on the first day of the annual Conservative party conference Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images

In my summary of what David Cameron said on the Andrew Marr Show earlier I missed the one line that might have interested George Osborne the most - Cameron saying outsiders sometimes win in leadership contests.

It’s not up to me [who wins]. As I said to Jeremy Corbyn sometimes the outsider wins. Look we have very clear rules, those rues will be followed, it is never a coronation because it is not my decision.

Cameron was referring to a brief chat he had with Corbyn in the Commons during the Labour leadership contest.

In his Marr interview this morning David Cameron claimed that government changes to help the low paid, such as the increased tax allowance and the national living wage, would more than compensate for the impact of the tax credit cuts for most workers. Number 10 says the figures backing up this claim are included in the budget red book (pdf), on pages 38 and 39. Here are some extracts.

Taking the welfare changes together with the introduction of the NLW [national living wage] and record increases in the income tax personal allowance, this will mean that 8 out of 10 working households will be better off in 2017‐18 by an average of £130. A couple over 25 working full time on the NMW [national minimum wage] and who benefit from the NLW, with 2 children, will take home a higher net income by 2020‐21 than they did in 2015‐16 ...

The table below sets out the combined impact of the Budget changes to welfare, the personal allowance and NLW on individual households. A typical renting household with two children and two full‐time earners currently at the minimum wage will see their net income rise by 12% in real terms over the Parliament. Over the Parliament, a typical renting household with one child, and one adult in work currently at the minimum wage, is expected to see their net income rise by 6% in real terms, whereas the same household with no one in work is expected to see their income fall in real terms by 4%.

Michael Gove's speech - Summary

It’s been trash Jeremy Corbyn afternoon at the Conservative conference. Lord Feldman, Philip Hammond and Michael Fallon have all depicted him as weak on defence and a threat to national security, but Michael Gove delivered perhaps the most pointed attack in his speech winding up this afternoon’s session. Gove is shadow justice secretary, but this speech was pure party politics. Here are the main points.

  • Gove said that Corbyn was “a genial soul” but that three things about him showed why he was a threat to national security.

Thousands of words have been written about the new Labour leader.

Commentators have reflected on his clothes, his speaking style, even his prep school education.

And I am happy to acknowledge that he is better dressed, better spoken and - indeed - much posher - than me.

He’s also, I have to acknowledge, a genial soul.

But ultimately, there are really only three things we need to remember about him.

His closest ally [John McDonnell] congratulated the IRA on using bombs and bullets to get its way.

He himself called the anti-semitic and mass-murdering terrorist organisations Hamas and Hezbollah “friends”.

And when he was invited to sing the national anthem to commemorate those who fought fascism in World War Two he was silent.

A Labour leader who promotes defenders of the IRA, who speaks up for Hamas, who puts the case for Hezbollah, who raises his voice on behalf of those anti-Western, anti-British, anti-semitic extremists - and yet who cannot bear to open his mouth to honour our war dead - is never going to be able to keep this country safe, secure, and free.

(Gove, of course, was being tendentious. McDonnell claims his comment praising the IRA was intended to help to persuade them to disarm; Corbyn routinely describes people sharing platforms with him as “friends”; and Corbyn claims he was lost in thought at the Battle of Britain memorial, not staying silent out of disrespect. But you don’t expect party conference speeches to be even-handed.)

  • Gove claimed Labour was “no longer on the side of working people.”
  • He said the Tories needed to do more to tackle social injustices. Among the problems he highlighted were: African and Caribbean under-performance in schools; sexism; female genital mutilation; domestic violence; and general inequality.

And there is something that we need to be brutally and uncomfortably honest about.

There is more we need to do to tackle the excesses and abuses of capitalism abuses which undermine the system that generates so much growth and opportunity.

  • He mocked “the Twitterati, the Guardianistas, [and] the pollsters” who expected Labour to win the election.

All those who mistook a trend on social media as the settled will of the British people, who thought a retweeted hashtag was a democratic mandate, who believed that Russell Brand, Jeremy Hardy and Charlotte Church were the voices of the silent majority. They were proved totally, completely, tragically - and yet marvellously and hilariously - wrong.

  • He claimed Tory candidates at the election were “inclusive, meritocratic, committed to public service”.
Michael Gove leaving the stage after his speech.
Michael Gove leaving the stage after his speech. Photograph: Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters

There were two mini announcements in the speech from Michael Fallon, the defence secretary.

  • Fallon said that 5,000 service families had bought homes through the armed forces help to buy scheme announced last year. And he said he wanted to double the number of completed applications in the next year.
  • He said measures were being taken to allow service personnel and their relatives posted overseas to suspend their mobile phone contracts. Vodafone, Three, EE and 02 have all made commitments on this, he said.

Fallon also attacked Labour over defence but, after Feldman (see 2.25pm) and Hammond (see 3.22pm) you have probably got the message already.

Michael Fallon
Michael Fallon Photograph: Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters

Updated

Here’s some copy on the anti-austerity protest. It’s from the Press Association, which perhaps explains the euphemistic reference to pigs in the final paragraph.

Tens of thousands of activists have marched in Manchester in protest at government policies as the Conservative Party began its annual conference in the city.

Up to 85,000 people are claimed to have joined the demonstration on issues such as austerity, spending and benefit cuts, NHS reforms and restrictions on trade union strike activity.

Although the protest was largely good-natured, there have been two arrests, including one man for allegedly spitting at a journalist.

A smartly-dressed Tory conference-goer was also hit by an egg as the demonstration made its way through the city centre.

Union leaders and officials from campaign groups including CND addressed a rally in the city centre before leading the procession.

Singer Billy Bragg warmed up the growing crowd with a set on stage, changing the lyrics to his best-known songs to add topical references such as “take the money from Trident and spend it on the NHS” and “these Tory cuts will get me the sack”.

The rally began in bright sunshine - with many holding banners from the country’s biggest trade union Unite.

A variety of slogans featured on mass-produced and home-made placards, including Cut War Not Welfare, Don’t Bomb Syria, No Cuts and Divine Discontent, Divine Disobedience.

Several costumes and banners featured images of pigs, poking fun at prime minister David Cameron over allegations made in a controversial biography about a bizarre student ritual.

A young Tory delegate after being egged by activists during the anti-austerity march
A young Tory delegate after being egged by activists during the anti-austerity march Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA

Hammond suggests Corbyn's leadership of Labour is already damaging Britain's reputation abroad

Here are the key points from the speech from Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary.

  • Hammond claimed that Labour’s stance on defence was a threat to Britain’s reputation now, not just a danger in the event of Labour winning the 2020 election. He claimed Labour was “weak on terrorism; weak on defence; a threat to Britain’s national security”. And he went on:

In less than five years’ time, would Britain contemplate a prime minister:

- Who would share the governance of the Falkland Islands with the Argentinians;

- Who considers the death of Osama bin Laden “a tragedy”;

- and who is an apologist for Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

I think I can answer that in the words of a much-loved former prime minister: “no, no, no”!

But it’s not just about what may (or may not!) happen in 5 years’ time.

It’s about what’s happening now!

And in my discussions with colleagues all over the world, I fear that Labour’s lurch to the left risks undermining our message that Britain is back.

They see a party that was in government until five years ago.

The official opposition.

And they are asking me candidly: what on earth is going on over there?

Has the party of Attlee and Bevan taken leave of its senses?

What am I supposed to tell them? “don’t worry, it’s just a “kinder, more caring politics”?”

He also mocked Jeremy Corbyn for suggesting it was acceptable for a party to agree to differ on a major issue.

And, by the way, we generally find, however old-fashioned it might seem, that having just one policy on a given issue, which we all share, works pretty well. I can recommend it to others!

  • He said Britain would carry on playing its part in the coaltion fighting against Islamic State (Isis) “for as long as it takes”.
  • He suggested the government could authorise more drone strikes against Isis in Syria.

And in Syria, our message to ISIL [Isis] is clear

When you threaten the lives of British citizens, there is no place to hide.

We have shown that we have the reach, the capability and the determination to hunt you down.

We will defeat you and your vile ideology, no matter how long it takes.

  • He said Britain was willing to work with Russia against Isis.

We will work with anyone who wants to join us in this struggle – including Russia.

But if Russia wants to fight ISIL, it cannot at the same time support Assad.

  • He said the EU needed reform because it was “too big, too bloated and too bureaucratic”.
  • He criticised Spain for “unlawful and inexcusable” incursions in Gibraltar’s territorial waters.
  • He criticised Argentina for subjecting the Falkland Islands to “shameful” bullying.

Education secretary Nicky Morgan has been talking to the Huffington Post’s Paul Waugh at a fringe event. Most of the discussion focused on education policy, but the issue on everybody’s mind was her interview with the Spectator magazine this week in which she said she’d be open to standing to replace David Cameron as leader of the Conservative party.

I was asked a question and I gave a straight answer and if that’s news then so be it. It’s not anything I’m looking for any response to. We will cross that bridge, as a party, when we come to it.

“The time will come,” she said when pressed on her ambitions. “Other people will make those decisions.”

Morgan, who oversaw the EU budget when she was a treasury minister, said she couldn’t imagine campaigning to leave the European Union, but stressed that the media needed to give the renegotiation process time to unfold.

“I will want to be staying in, other people will want to put forward different views. I also think it’s completely right to give people a say. It’s been a long time since we gave people a say [on the European Union],” said Morgan. Asked if she could ever imagine herself campaigning to leave, she said: “Personally not”.

Morgan, who is also equalities minister, was asked about her decision to vote against the gay marriage bill in 2013. “Hopefully people understand that I’ve said I think I got it wrong and my position has changed,” she said.

I’ve been surprised about people who don’t want to accept that people can change their minds. I think people are more comfortable with actually making assumptions about people... ‘You voted this way so you must be a certain kind of person’ and actually it surprises me how challenged people feel by somebody who changes their mind.

Nicky Morgan
Nicky Morgan Photograph: Yui Mok/PA

Updated

Tory chairman says party needs to make 'fundamental changes' to way it operates

Here are the key points from the speech from Lord Feldman, the Conservative chairman.

  • Feldman said that the Conservative party needed to make “fundamental changes” to the way it operated. A review was underway, and it would report early next year, he said.

I do have to be frank.

If we don’t make some fundamental changes, then we face trouble ahead.

Because the hard truth of the matter is that the average age of our members is rising…

…and the number of members is flat lining.

The vast majority of our members live in safe seats.

And in many areas – like major city centres – we barely have any presence at all.

As chairman of this party, I am determined that this will change.

  • He said the party needed to reach out to those who did not vote for it, and to those who did not vote at all.
  • He said Labour was a threat to national security.

They [Labour] promise us we have no enemies in the world…

…we’ll never have to defend ourselves…

But this is just not true.

We do need to be able to defend ourselves…

...we do need an army…

…we do need NATO…

…and we do need Trident.

  • He claimed the Tory election victory saved the country “from ruin”.
Lord Feldman
Lord Feldman Photograph: Suzanne Plunkett/REUTERS

The conference proceedings are now underway. The opening speech came from Steve Bell, but not our Steve Bell. It was Steve Bell, president of the National Conservative Convention. Hearing the Guardian’s Steve Bell address the Tory conference would have been rather more interesting.

Lord Feldman, the Conservative chairman, is speaking now. I will summarise his speech when I’ve read the full text.

Ruth Davidson, the Conservative leader in Scotland, told a fringe event that she would like to see more detail on how tax credit cuts will work in practice.

I agree with the prime minister that we should be absolutely cleaving to the principle that work should pay in and of itself and we should be moving to a higher wage and lower welfare economy ... But when it comes to the application of the policy, I think we do need to see a little bit more detail about how it will work in practice and I would expect that to be brought forward in the autumn statement.

She also said she would like to see carer’s allowance brought into line with jobseeker’s allowance, and will campaign for this to happen in Scotland once the welfare budget is devolved.

Ruth Davidson
Ruth Davidson Photograph: Murdo MacLeod for the Guardian

According to ITV’s Libby Wiener, George Osborne was not keen to answer when asked if he was worried about the tax credit fallout.

Billy Bragg is entertaining the protesters in Manchester.

Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, has said that she will let her MSPs campaign for or against EU membership in the referendum.

Here’s more from the protest.

Here’s more from Len McCluskey’s interview on the Andrew Marr show. He suggested that if the trade union bill became law, Unite members would be willing to break the law rather than obey it.

There are occasions, and our history is littered with them, where bad laws are introduced even by elected governments then people have not only a right to oppose them but a duty to stand up and defy them.

This trade union bill which is deeply, deeply divisive - there’s all kinds of individuals - Police Federation, the HR profession, the government’s own regulatory body, have said that it’s not fit for purpose.

There comes a time when you have to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with your membership and if this law pushes our members outside of the law, what we in Unite will do is we won’t abandon our members.

If that pushes us outside the law, then it will be the prime minister’s responsibility for the outcomes of that.

Len McCluskey (left) being interviewed by Andrew Marr
Len McCluskey (left) being interviewed by Andrew Marr Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Thousands join anti-Tory protest

Anti-austerity protesters in Manchester.
Anti-austerity protesters in Manchester. Photograph: MCPIX/REX Shutterstock/MCPIX/REX Shutterstock

The TUC/People’s Assembly demonstration against austerity is underway in Manchester outside the conference centre. My colleague Helen Pidd is covering it.

Helen has found that some of the protesters are friendly.

But not all of them.

Anti-austerity protesters at Manchester
Anti-austerity protesters at Manchester Photograph: MCPIX/REX Shutterstock/MCPIX/REX Shutterstock

Updated

Javid says bailing out SSI steelworks would not necessarily help workers

On the Sunday Politics Sajid Javid, the business secretary, also explained why he would not be putting taxpayers’ money into trying to rescue the SSI steelworks in Redcar. The money would go to creditors in Thailand, he said.

We don’t own the ovens, they are owned by a company in Thailand. It’s been made clear to me that both these companies are now in bankruptcy and if we put a single pound of British taxpayers’ money into the company, there is no guarantee it would help a single British worker. It would help banks in Thailand and I am not going to use British taxpayers’ money to bail out Thai banks. I will use British taxpayers’ money to help British workers.

He also said that, while he hoped some jobs could be saved, other jobs at the plant would “certainly be lost”.

I have to focus on what the British Government can do. I can tell you, I can’t change the global price of steel. It has collapsed by half in the last 12 months.

Sajid Javid
Sajid Javid Photograph: Mark Thomas/REX Shutterstock/Mark Thomas/REX Shutterstock

Updated

My colleague Frances Perraudin has been touring the stalls at conference centre in Manchester.

There is a spoof magic money printing machine, mocking Jeremy Corbyn’s economic policies.

And a chance to practise shooting.

Earlier I posted a snap summary and analysis of David Cameron’s interview with Andrew Marr. It’s here, at 10.37am. I’ve now beefed it up considerably, with more direct quotes. To read the updated version, you may need to refresh the page.

Here’s Jon Ashworth, Labour’s shadow minister without portfolio, on David Cameron’s announcement about a seven-day NHS.

You can’t trust his promises on a seven-day NHS - he has made them before but hasn’t delivered. What the Tories have done is take the health service backwards - under them it is harder to see your GP and waiting lists are higher.

Frank Field, the Labour former welfare minister, has used Twitter to say that he is “disappointed” by David Cameron’s comment about not reviewing the tax credit cuts. (See 10.37am.)

At the end of last week Field wrote an open letter to Cameron proposing a reform to the tax credit cuts. In his interview Cameron made polite noises about considering proposals put to him, but said nothing to suggest he was taking the Field option seriously.

Here is an extract from Field’s letter from last week explaining his idea. The cuts to tax credits are complicated, but one aspect of them involves a steep cut in the amount people can earn before they start losing tax credits. Field proposes retaining the existing earnings threshold, but increasing the taper (the amount people lose for every extra £1 the earn) for earnings above £13,100. This would help the very poorest people, but penalise those on marginally higher earnings. Field said:

There is one cost neutral policy in particular which could protect National Living Wage-earners: a secondary earnings threshold paid for by a steeper withdrawal rate for those earning above this new minimum rate.

This option would retain the existing £6,420 income threshold but introduce a second gross income threshold of £13,100, the equivalent of working 35 hours a week on the National Living Wage. For gross earnings between £6,420 and £13,100, the taper rate would be kept at 41%. The lowest paid working families, therefore, would experience no reduction in tax credit income compared with the current system. To keep the policy cost neutral, gross earnings above £13,100 would need to be tapered at 65%.

Here’s my colleague Nicholas Watt’s story about David Cameron’s Andrew Marr interview. And here is how it starts.

David Cameron has rejected calls to soften the impact of planned cuts to tax credits in the face of a cross-party campaign which warns that 3 million of the poorest working families will be worse off by £1,350 a year.

In an interview on the Andrew Marr Show on BBC1, in which he said that the Conservatives would now champion the “common ground” as Labour “runs to the hills”, the prime minister defended the cuts on the grounds that the government was having to protect the NHS and schools.

Cameron announces 7-day contract for GPs

In his Andrew Marr interview David Cameron said that he would be publishing a new GP contract for seven-day working. The government has already announced its plans for a new contract involving seven-day working for hospital consultants. The announcement was overshadowed by the other topics in the interview, and the Conservatives have now put out a press notice with more details. It will be a voluntary contract, the press notice says.

The government has listened to GP leaders who say that the time has come for a new, voluntary contract option for general practice, integrated with community nurses and other health and care professionals, to provide more seamless, person-centred care for patients. That approach is embedded at the heart of NHS England’s Five Year Forward View ...

The new contract will remove the bureaucratic box-ticking of Labour’s 2004 GP contract – freeing up GP time to provide the quality of care that they and their patients want. Micro-management of GPs’ work through the Quality and Outcomes Framework and other sorts of old-fashioned bureaucracy will be scrapped, giving doctors far greater professional control. A study published today by the Primary Care Foundation and NHS Alliance sets out a number of ways of reducing bureaucracy – including by allowing smoother rebooking of appointments and, sharing best practice, and linking more effectively with nurses and pharmacists.

As part of a new “patient guarantee”, the prime minister announced that the government intends to make it a requirement in its new Mandate to NHS England that they and clinical commissioning groups should ensure that every patient has access to 7-day services by 2020. We will be setting out clear milestones for delivery in the coming months. By improving access to primary care, we will be able to relieve pressure on A&E and other emergency services within the NHS.

David Cameron talking to Dr Ajay Kotegoankar (left) during a visit to the Radcliffe Primary Care Centre in Bury, Greater Manchester
David Cameron talking to Dr Ajay Kotegoankar (left) during a visit to the Radcliffe Primary Care Centre in Bury, Greater Manchester Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA

Sajid Javid, the business secretary, was also asked about the tax credit cuts on the Sunday Politics. He was slightly more nuanced than David Cameron when asked about the IFS analysis saying the increase in the minimum wage would not compensate for the cuts in tax credits. He did not dispute what the IFS was saying, but instead he argued that it was “very selective” just to look at tax credits. Taking into account all changes introduced by the government, “the typical family” would be better off, he claimed.

Javid also said he would not be following Nicky Morgan and declaring himself as a future leadership candidate, although it was not entirely clear from the way he said he whether he was ruling out a declaration now, or whether he was ruling out ever standing. It sounded more like the former.

Lord Heseltine also told Radio 5 Live that he did not think ministers should be allowed a free vote on the EU referendum.

I think to govern is to govern. This is a matter for the prime minister and his colleagues. I think that it should not be a question of a free vote.

Michael Heseltine, the Tory peer and former deputy prime minister, told BBC 5 Live this morning he did not see a situation where Cameron would ever lead the campaign to leave the EU.

Pressed on whether this undermined the prime minister’s whole renegotiation strategy, he replied: “You asked my opinion, not the prime minister’s opinion.”

The Times’s Sam Coates thinks David Cameron will end up review the tax credit cuts, even though he said he wouldn’t on the Marr show.

Cameron on the tax credit cuts

Here is the key exchange from the Andrew Marr interview where David Cameron dismissed reports that the low-paid will lose out from the tax credit cuts.

AM: This new proposal on tax credits is going to mean that just before Christmas 3m of the poorest hard-working families, the people who go out promptly every morning and see their neighbours blinds down and so forth, they are going to have a huge cut in their income.

DC: What we are doing is increasing the income of hard-working people because introducing the national living wage - and this is important - that will mean effectively a £20 a week pay rise next year for the lowest-paid people in our country.

AM: I’m sorry to butt in, but the Institute for Fiscal Studies says it is arithmetically impossible for that to make up the cut in tax credits.

DC: That’s not right. If you take a family where someone is on minimum wage, when you take into account all the things we are changing in tax, in the national living wage, and tax credits, that family will be better off, not least because you’ve got the national living wage, and we are also cutting tax so you can earn £11,000 before you start paying any tax at all.

AM: Are you saying people will not, just before Christmas, be getting envelopes saying you are going to lose £1,500 out of your tax credits.

Jonathan Portes, head of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and a former chief economist at the Cabinet Office, says Cameron is wrong.

Here is the quote from Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, that Andrew Marr referred to in the interview.

The key fact is that the increase in the minimum wage simply cannot provide full compensation for the majority of losses that will be experienced by tax credit recipients. That is just arithmetically impossible.

The gross increase in employment income from the higher minimum wage is about £4 billion. Welfare spending as a whole is due to fall by £12 billion and, even excluding the effects of the four year freeze tax credit spending is due to be cut by getting on for £6 billion. And of course many of the recipients of the higher minimum wage will not be tax credit recipients. Unequivocally, tax credit recipients in work will be made worse off by the measures in the Budget on average.

Updated

Trade minister Francis Maude, who was recently given a peerage, was given a hard time over cuts to tax credits on BBC 5 Live’s Pienaar’s Politics.

He argued the plan was politically principled and brave but would cause pain for the people affected. He acknowledged it would be “uncomfortable” for the party and “may damage (the Conservatives) in the short term”.

Cameron's interview with Marr - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat

And this is what political journalists are saying about David Cameron’s interview with Andrew Marr on Twitter. Generally they weren’t particularly impressed.

From the Times’s Sam Coates

From the Daily Mirror’s Kevin Maguire

From the Times’s Francis Elliott

From the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves

From PoliticsHome’s Kevin Schofield

From the Times’s Tim Montgomerie

From Ian Birrell

From the BBC’s Ben Wright

On the Andrew Marr Show David Cameron said he had met the TUC to discuss the trade union bill. Frances O’Grady, the TUC general secretary, says that is not true.

David Cameron's Andrew Marr interview - Snap summary and analysis

Here are the key points from David Cameron’s Andrew Marr interview. I will post a fuller version later with more quotes. On several issues Cameron was wriggling quite a lot (although, when he does go into evasive mode, he does it well, and with a lot more grace and fluency than, say Gordon Brown). He was most uncomfortable talking about the Ashcroft book, but the questions about tax credits were probably more significant.

  • Cameron dismissed reports that the increase in the minimum wage (through the “national living wage”) will not compensate those who lose out from the tax credits cuts. UPDATE: The full quotes are here, at 11.28am.
  • He ruled out reviewing the decision to cut tax credits. Asked directly about the call for a review from figures like David Willetts, the Conservative former universities minister, he replied:

No, we think the changes we have put forward are right and they come with higher pay and lower taxes.

In the Times on Saturday Willetts said:

There is a real risk that [the tax credit cuts] could turn sour as some of those hard-working families that politicians love realise they are heavy losers. If the goal is a genuine blue-collar conservatism, it must be a priority for the autumn statement and spending review to ease a policy which could otherwise do the same kind of political damage as Labour’s abolition of the 10 per cent income tax band.

In this section of the interview David Cameron was reminiscent of Gordon Brown in 2008 refusing to accept that low-paid workers were losing out from the abolition of the 10p starting rate of tax. In repeated interviews Brown insisted, in the face of the evidence, that the low-paid were not losing out because income tax was also going down. Cameron sounded less irritable than Brown did in those encounters, but equally complacent. Nick Robinson, who had several acrimonious interviews with Brown on this issue, explains why Cameron is in trouble on this issue.

  • Cameron said that Russia was making a “terrible mistake” helping President Assad in Syria.

Tragically, what has happened is that most of the Russian airstrikes, as far as we have been able to see so far, have been in parts of Syria not controlled by Isil but by other opponents of the regime. They are backing the butcher Assad, which is a terrible mistake for them and for the world. It is going to make the region more unstable, it will lead to further radicalisation and increase terrorism.

I would say to them: ‘Change direction, join us in attacking Isil, but recognise that if we want to have a secure region, we need an alternative leader to Assad’. He can’t unite the Syrian people. Assad has driven far more people from their homes with the barrel bombs and the brutality than even the brutal death cult of Isil.

  • Cameron said the Russian bombing in Syria had not undermined his belief that Britain should be willing to attack Islamic State targets in the country. But there would have to be a vote in parliament for this to happen, he said.
  • Cameron ruled out the offer from the Unite general secretary Len McCluskey for the unions to drop their opposition to the new strike thresholds in the trade union bill in return for the government allowing electronic voting in strike ballots. McCluskey has made the offer in a letter to Cameron, and he repeated it on the programme earlier. (See 9.25am.) In response, Cameron said:

The speaker of the House of Commons did actually put together a commission to look at electronic voting and the conclusion of that commission was that it wasn’t safe from fraud, so I think there are problems with that approach. Is it too much to ask someone who’s going to go on strike, who’s going to disrupt people’s children’s schools, to fill in a ballot paper to do that? The thresholds are right and they’ve now conceded the thresholds.

  • He suggested that some aspects of the trade union bill, such as the requirement for people on strike to wear armbands, could be reviewed. Asked about that specifically, he said:

All these measures in the legislation can be discussed as they go through parliament. The heart of the legislation is thresholds so you can’t have strikes based on a ballot sometimes years before the actual strike takes place, based on very low turnouts. That’s the heart of the bill, that’s what’s being proposed. A lot of other stuff you read is frankly not in the bill.

  • He suggested the TUC was to blame for the fact that he had not met Len McCluskey. McCluskey raised this earlier. (See 9.25am.) Asked about this, Cameron replied:

I’ve met the TUC in my office, they can bring who they like frankly.

  • He welcomed the fact that senior Tories were starting to plan for the leadership contest after he stands down towards the end of this parliament. It was good that there were stars in the team, he said.

Now the effect it [his declaration that he will only serve two terms as prime minister] has on the Conservative party - frankly, I would say it’s good we have a team, a team with stars in it and of course we will look at some of those stars and whether he or she would be able to do this job. Good. Frankly, great. People are asking ‘look at this person, look at that person’ - I want to run a team and that’s great.

He also said that “sometimes the outsider wins” in leadership contests.

  • Cameron suggested that Ashcroft’s book was motivated by revenge. He also claimed that people had “made their mind up” about the key allegations, implying they had decided not to believe the most salacious one.

I think everyone can see why this book was written. The author wrote an article himself explaining why he was doing this. I think everyone can see through it, so frankly I am not going to dignify it with individual responses. I think people have had a look and they have made their mind up.

  • He said it would be wrong to offer someone a government job in return for donations.
  • He said he had ensured the Conservative party cleared its debts so it did not owe anything to people like Ashcroft.
  • He said there would be “no complacency or backslapping” at the Conservative conference this week.
  • He said he would not be withdrawing a Ministry of Justice bid for a prison contract in Saudi Arabia. But the government told the Saudis it objected to their use of capital punishment, he said.

It’s right we do work with Saudi Arabia but we would not ever be part of the punishment that they carry out. There is a different matter, for instance, between helping supply the police or military but we would never be part of the punishments they hand out. Britain does not support the death penalty in any state, anywhere in the world and when people are on death row we always make the point to those governments concerned. That will continue to be the case.

  • He conceded that his EU renegotiation would not satisfy some of his Eurosceptics.

There are some people who want to leave the EU and I suspect in Owen (Paterson)‘s case have always wanted to leave the EU. There is nothing I am going to bring back that will satisfy those people.

  • He indicated that he would be willing to push the nuclear button, unlike Jeremy Corbyn. And he said that Corbyn’s refusal to contemplate using nuclear weapons undermined national security.

The problem with [Corbyn’s] answer is if you believe like me that Britain should keep the ultimate insurance policy of an independent nuclear deterrent, you have to accept there are circumstances in which its use would be justified. If you give any other answer then you are, frankly, undermining our national security, undermining our deterrent.

  • He said he would publish a new GP contract for seven-day working.

Updated

Q: What do you want to say about the Lord Aschcroft allegations?

Cameron says that everyone can see why Ashcroft wrote this book. He explained his motives. He is not going to dignify the allegations with a comment. People have made up their minds about the book.

Q: Ashcroft thinks he was promised a job.

Cameron says he did not get a job. He won’t say whether he promised Ashcroft one.

He says the Conservative party owed more than £20m when he became leader, including to Ashcroft. The party has paid off most of its debts. He does not want it to be in debt to anyone.

Q: Would it be corrupt to offer someone a government job in return for a donation.

It would be wrong, says Cameron.

Q: Ashcroft says you knew he was a non-dom in 2009, earlier than you said.

Cameron says he said in December 2009 that non-doms should not be allowed to sit in the Lords.

Q: When did you know he was a non-dom?

Cameron says he answered these questions at the time.

He said someone’s tax affairs were a matter for them and the Revenue, he says.

And that’s it. There was quite a lot to unpack in that. I’ll post a snap summary soon.

Cameron says if you believe in the nuclear deterrent, you have to accept there are circumstances where it might be used.

Q: When you said you would not serve a third term, did you realise you would trigger leadership speculation?

Cameron says 10 years as prime minister is enough. It is good that there are stars in the team. He thinks that is great, he says.

What happens will not be his decision, he says. It will be up to the party and members.

Q: The Saudis behead more people than Isis. They are about to execute an 80-year-old. What is your message to them?

Don’t do it, says Cameron.

Q: Are we bidding for a prison contract in Saudi Arabia.

Cameron says helping to supply their police system is one thing. But we do not support capital punishment.

Q: But that amounts to supporting their justice system.

Camerons says the UK does not support capital punishment.

Q: Now Russia is involved in Syria, isn’t bombing Islamic State too dangerous?

No, says Cameron. He wants to degrade and destroy Isis in Iraq and Syria.

Q: But now that the Russians are in that airspace, air strikes would be impossible.

Cameron says he does not accept that. The Russians are attacking other opposition groups, not Isis.

Q: Putin wants to keep Assad in power. If you fly RAF jets across Syria, there is a chance of coming into conflict with the Russians.

Cameron says he does not accept that. He says that he would not order air strikes in Syria without a vote in parliament.

Q: There is a sense we are moving closer to EU exit?

Cameron understands that. But he says he is fighting to get changes.

Q: Lord Lawson says he wants national parliaments to have the final say.

Cameron says he wants national parliaments to be able to unite to block bits of EU law. And he wants people to stop being able to claim child benefit to send it abroad. That is something he wants to fix.

Q: People like Owen Paterson think your demands are puny.

Cameron says Paterson has probably always wanted to leave. He will never be able to satisfy people like Paterson, he says.

Q: If we were out of the EU by the time you stood down, would that be a failure of your premiership?

Cameron says he wants to get the right deal for the UK.

Q: If you could not get the right deal, that would be a failure then.

Cameron says he has ruled nothing out if he does not get what he wants.

Cameron confirms that he has not ruled anything out if he does not get what he wants in his EU renegotiation.

Cameron says the significant thing in Len McCluskey’s interview was that he accepted the case for high thresholds in strike ballots.

Asked about the rules saying union members on strike have to wear armbands, he says this can be looked at as the bill goes through parliament. Some of the things said to be in the bill are not in the bill, he says.

Cameron rules out reviewing tax credit cuts

Q: Because of your changes to tax credits, 3m people are going to lose £1,500 or so just before Christmas.

Cameron says he is increasing wages for the low-paid. Because of the national living wage, they will get a 20% pay rise.

Q: The IFS says it is impossible for that to compensate for the amount they lose from tax credits.

Cameron says that is not the case. He cites an example of how someone could benefit.

Q: Are you saying the IFS is wrong?

Cameron says he is moving from a low-pay, high-welfare system, to a high-pay, low-welfare system.

When he became prime minister nine out of 10 people qualified for tax credits. Even MPs could claim.

Q: So why do people like David Willetts and Boris Johnson warn about the impact. Frank Field has proposed a solution. Will you look at it?

Cameron says he is always happy to look at a proposal, but MPs have had the vote.

Q: For some it will be a miserable Christmas. Do you accept that?

Cameron says we are moving to a better system.

Q: Do you have some sympathy for these people?

Cameron says the country has had to make difficult decisions.

Q: Will you have another look at this in the autumn statement?

No, says Cameron.

  • Cameron rejects claims that the national living wage increase won’t compensate for the impact of tax credit cuts.
  • Cameron rules out reviewing the tax credit cuts.

Updated

Cameron says he wants people to have access to a GP seven days a week. Already a third of people will have this from next year. But he wants it for everyone.

He says the Salford hospital near here works on a seven day basis. He wants that everywhere.

David Cameron's Andrew Marr interview

David Cameron is on the Andrew Marr Show now.

Q: Now that Jeremy Corbyn is leading Labour, how will you react? Move to the right, or to the centre?

Cameron says he will deliver for the working people of Britain, from the common ground.

Q: Can you kill off the Labour party?

Cameron says “there will be no complacency or backslapping this week”, although there might be some mild celebration of the election victory.

What happens to Labour is up to them. But he has said they are heading off to the hills.

  • Cameron says there will be “no complacency or backslapping” from the Tories this week.

In the Sunday Times Tim Shipman says at least 18 ministers and former ministers are thinking of standing against George Osborne for the Conservative leadership when David Cameron stands down. But he has summed up what is more likely to happen on Twitter like this.

Here are some snippets from David Cameron’s interviews in the Sun and the Sunday Telegraph.

Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary, is also a guest on the Andrew Marr Show. He has just said that, if the government were to allow trade unions to use internet polling for strike ballots, then the new thresholds for strike ballots in the trade union bill would not be a problem because unions would find it easier to get more people to vote. The Tories have been accused of hypocrisy on this point.

McCluskey also said he had never met David Cameron. That was odd, he said, because in other European countries it was be routine for the prime minister to meet union leaders.

George Osborne has given a major interview to the Mail on Sunday. Here is an extract from the news story summarising the main points.

[Osborne] ruled out a path to power now, saying he deserved to be sacked if he showed disloyalty to David Cameron. But he conceded that when the time comes for Cameron to leave No 10, he would ‘see how it flies’ ...

‘I owe it to him to do this job to the best of my ability until the day he stops being Prime Minister. If I were for one moment to think, “I’m not going to put this in my Budget because it might hinder my chance of becoming PM” or “I’m going to avoid saying something controversial because there may be some Conservatives who don’t like it and that might damage my chances” – if I ever thought like that I should be sacked’ ...

Osborne also revealed:

      • He is a fan of outrageous hip- hop stars ‘N**gaz With Attitude’ – once dubbed ‘the world’s nastiest rap band’.
      • His horror when his three-year-old son Luke was rescued from drowning after being spotted floating ‘seemingly lifeless’ in a swimming pool 11 years ago.
      • How he fell in love with author wife Frances after trying to play Cupid for a friend who fancied her.
      • That all the couple’s bank accounts are in joint names.
      • How he recently threw away his old baggy jeans because he is sure he won’t be ‘fat and flabby’ again.
      • That his daughter Liberty, 12, banned him from going to a Taylor Swift concert with her because he is ‘uncool’.
      • The couple do not set bed times for their children – and they can watch 15 and 18-certificate films.
      • He is an ‘irregular Anglican’ but doesn’t pray because he ‘can’t imagine a God who would ever need to intercede in the daily travails of my life’.
      • He drove recklessly fast when he was young and nearly had two serious crashes.

And here is the full interview.

George Osborne arriving at the Tory conference last night.
George Osborne arriving at the Tory conference last night. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

David Cameron will this week become the first Conservative leader to address his conference as prime minister of Conservative-only government since John Major in 1996. That was a gathering with less cheer than a funeral. In Manchester the mood will be very different and, with the Lib Dems near extinct and Labour veering left under Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps the biggest challenge for the Torries will be containing their triumphalism although, as ever with this party, the split over Europe threatens to disrupt proceedings.

Here are some of the main news developments overnight.

Cameron’s decision to pre-announce his departure has turned this week’s conference into a leadership beauty contest. Theresa May, Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, Chris Grayling, Graham Brady, Liz Truss, Andrea Leadsom, Justine Greening, Dominic Raab, Stephen Crabb, Anna Soubry, Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel have all discussed with friends the prospect of running.

Former cabinet ministers Owen Paterson and Liam Fox are also considering whether to anoint a new right-wing standard bearer — with Grayling expected to resign from the cabinet over Europe and lead the charge — or run themselves.

The jostling for position began in earnest last night when May, the home secretary, slapped down Nicky Morgan, the education secretary, who last week sought to usurp her as the leading female challenger to Osborne. In an interview with The Sunday Times, May said it was not the time to talk about the leadership, and candidates should only “cross that bridge when we come to it”. Asked if she agreed with Morgan that there should be a woman leader, May said: “The people of this country voted David Cameron back in as prime minister and he’s going to be serving a full second term. We have a first-class prime minister.”

David Cameron is facing a showdown with EU judges and his party on Europe this week, amid claims he has privately pledged not to pull Britain out of the EU.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) will deliver a ruling on Tuesday that could force Britain to give prisoners the right to vote in European elections. It would be a blow to the prime minister, who has previously called the idea “sickening”, as he prepares to give his speech to the Tory party conference.

Later this week the “no” campaign to leave the EU will be launched, unveiling a list of Tory donors who have defied pleas from Lord Feldman, the Tory party chairman, not to campaign against Cameron.

And here is the agenda for the day.

Around 9.30am: David Cameron is interviewed on the Andrew Marr show.

Noon: The People’s Assembly and the TUC hold a No to Austerity protest in Manchester.

2pm: Lord Feldman, the Conservative chairman, opens the conference with a speech.

2.15pm: Debate on foreign affairs, with speeches from Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, and Michael Fallon, the defence secretary.

If you want to follow me on Twitter or get in touch, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Updated

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