It is safe to say the team Eddie Jones had been preparing England to play against is not the team that will run out at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday. And you suspect he will be able to cope with the late change in runners and riders. Both Rob Kearney and Conor Murray had been expected to be fit, and are not; and the dropped Devin Toner could have been added to the list of sporting favourites who have failed to deliver elsewhere this week.
In Kearney’s case it is a fresh injury – a knee problem that cropped up on Tuesday and requires consulting a specialist. With Murray he was, seemingly, motoring along well enough after the shoulder stinger that forced him off in Cardiff until contact intervened in training and his world clouded over. As for Toner, it is a straightforward demotion.
To lose Murray, a certain Lion for this summer, tears the backside out of a good portion of Ireland’s kicking game. That in turn puts extra pressure on his partner Johnny Sexton who, unusually, is not the centre of attention on the fitness front. “Conor is a world-class scrum-half and we’ve built up a really strong relationship over the last three years, maybe longer,” Sexton said. “He’d be a loss to any team in the world when he’s at his best.
“But Kieran [Marmion] has been outstanding for Connacht and has had to bide his time. I thought he did really well in difficult circumstances last week against Wales and he’ll be more confident for that effort. I’m sure he’s looking forward to showing people what he can do now, and even today was really the first session we’ve had together but we got on well, and I’m looking forward to seeing what he can bring. He’s aggressive and he’s a really competitive guy.”
He is both of those, and his tackle on Ross Moriarty at the end of a long rearguard action in Cardiff reinforced the point. But you’re swapping a player with 57 Ireland caps and two for the Lions with one who has 12, only one of which was a start. The situation is compounded by having a replacement scrum-half, Luke McGrath, with just the one cap to his name.
By comparison the loss of Kearney is small beer, for it allows Jared Payne back into the side for the first time since lacerating a kidney against Australia in November. It was expected that Payne would fill the most fluid spot in Ireland’s Championship this season – outside back – but that goes to the uncapped Andrew Conway.
By comparison Ireland’s forward reserve is a bit heavier on experience, despite the presence of Niall Scannell and John Ryan who made their Championship debuts in this campaign. And that’s thanks to the surprising presence of Toner. You imagine it was the trickiest decision for the Ireland coach. “It was and I had a really good chat with Dev,” he said. “We’ve got some good lineout strength coming off the bench and if we need to go to that it’s there and available for us.
“I’ve coached Dev for seven years; I’ve seen him progress from a lot of times coming off the bench behind Leo Cullen and Nathan Hines and Brad Thorn into a guy who’s been incredibly important for us, and still is. He’s been involved in the 2014 and 2015 Six Nations wins, big games like winning in Chicago and South Africa. He’s been there. I do think it’s tough for Dev, but at the same time he’s racked up some massive miles and he’s just a little bit fatigued at the moment and Iain Henderson is fresh.”
That decision completes an interesting campaign for Henderson, who started in round one, against Scotland, scored a try, and was dropped. Now he starts ahead of a man who has been Ireland’s prime source of lineout ball since he became a fixture in the side. It would suggest they will be aiming to spend as much time as possible with ball in play against a team who, Sexton says, are as good as they look.
“They have equalled the All Blacks’ unbeaten record,” he says. “That speaks for itself. This team has been together for six years now. They’re going for back-to-back grand slams. Stuart [Lancaster] and Andy [Farrell] built this team after the 2011 World Cup and they’ve stuck together. They’ve been through ups and downs and they are reaping the rewards of that from last season’s grand slam all the way through to now.”
Moreover he considers them to be on the same playing level as New Zealand, despite having taken different routes to their joint record. “Yeah, you’ve got to say that – especially consistency-wise,” he says. “I think we can say we can beat these teams. But we haven’t come near to 18 wins in a row. That’s what we need to aspire to be like. We can worry about that after Saturday.”
Ireland team to play England, Aviva Stadium, 5pm Saturday 18 March
J Payne (Ulster); K Earls (Munster), G Ringrose, R Henshaw (both Leinster), S Zebo (Munster); J Sexton (Leinster), K Marmion (Connacht); J McGrath (Leinster), R Best (Ulster, capt), T Furlong (Leinster), D Ryan (Munster), I Henderson (Ulster), CJ Stander (Munster), S O’Brien, J Heaslip (both Leinster).
Replacements N Scannell (Munster), C Healy (Leinster), J Ryan (Munster), D Toner (Leinster), P O’Mahony (Munster), L McGrath (Leinster), P Jackson (Ulster), A Conway (Munster).
