With the matchmaking model changing before our eyes, the musical chairs of booking money fights seems to be taking precedence over the title picture, as even the public seems drawn more to gangsters than gold these days. And given the corner that the UFC has painted itself into in regards to superfights and crowded contender queues, I don’t blame the fan favorites for using what leverage they have to maximize their earnings in the meantime.
So, in the spirit of forecasting ahead, feel free to humor my analysis as I pair up some of MMA’s most notable “gangsters,” predicting why we could possibly see fights among Conor McGregor, Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal, as well as what those matchups might look like.
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Nate Diaz (20-11 MMA, 15-9 UFC) vs. Jorge Masvidal (34-13 MMA, 11-6 UFC)
Why it could happen: Well, considering Diaz’s clear star power in this new era of negotiations (where both promotion and fighter can create public sentiment in their favor), it’s hard to ignore the buzz that his callout created. Hell, Diaz even had “Gamebred” himself smiling from ear to ear during his post-fight interview at UFC 241.
UFC president Dana White earlier this week claimed that no progress has been made in regards to this matchup coming to fruition, but I can’t help but think that this fight makes too much sense right now given that welterweight still has a feud to sort out at the top between Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington.
Initial thoughts: Considering each fighter’s durability and propensity to exchange punches on the feet, I can’t help but see this fight being a fun and competitive affair regardless of what phase in which it takes place.
Diaz, who has long had solid boxing ability, has recently shown improvements in other areas of his game both defensively and offensively. Whereas Masvidal, despite having a tendency to sometimes get tagged early, is 6-2 against UFC level southpaws and would be one of the slickest strikers Diaz has faced to date. Although Diaz’s jiu-jitsu earns him the grappling edge on the floor, Masvidal’s wrestling superiority and skills when it comes to fighting in and out of the clinch will make for an interesting tradeoff.
Expected line: Masvidal -115, Diaz -105. Sure, this might be the existing line that is currently listed at many online houses, but I honestly don’t disagree. Masvidal has more experience (as well as positive outcomes) when fighting at a higher weight, which is probably what earns him the spot as the slimmest of favorites here. Expect the public to steadily lay money on Diaz with a late push for Masvidal from the perceived sharps out there.
Conor McGregor (21-4 MMA, 9-2 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz 3
Why it could happen: From historic earnings to palpable pairings, this matchup is the UFC’s proverbial money fight.
In fact, I often refer to this fight as both fighters’ “get out of jail free card,” considering this trilogy involves two men whom I believe are beyond the win-loss dogma of matchmaking and fan perception. It’s also, at least on paper, the UFC’s safest way of reintroducing its biggest star back into the fold.
Initial thoughts: Although we have already seen these two tango twice before, one could argue neither fighter (particularly Diaz) had ideal preparations heading into either contest.
Couple that with the stylistic upgrades that Diaz recently displayed against Anthony Pettis (as well Conor’s ability to fight against that type in their second fight), then I would leave some room to be surprised here. That said, the dynamic of their matchup largely remains the same given that McGregor still will be tasked to both manage his output and maintain his range in the face of Diaz’s vaunted pressure.
Expected line: McGregor -120, Diaz +100. Although I would personally favor Diaz to win this fight, betting lines aren’t exactly indicative of a fighter’s stylistic chances to walk away victorious. And considering Diaz – who has only been favored to win two of his last 13 fights – came in as an even bigger underdog to McGregor in their rematch (despite beating him the first time), no one should be surprised to see a plus sign next to his name – as McGregor should still be the more popular draw among the betting public.
No. 3: Conor McGregor vs. Jorge Masvidal
Why it could happen: Even though this is admittedly the matchup that I favor to happen least in this love triangle, there are some solid theories as to why this fight could come together.
In my opinion, McGregor’s legal ongoings are the elephant in the room in regards to possible reasonings as to why there’s been little (legitimate) gossip of what’s next for him. But if MMA’s most popular Irishman is, in fact, close to making his long-awaited return, then I could see Masvidal being pegged by UFC brass to once again play the role of the “get back on track” fight, despite what happened last time in London.
Couple all that with the fact that Diaz and the UFC traditionally have butted heads business-wise, and I could easily see them going with the man whose manager is already publicly claiming his intentions to play ball (as I suspect Masvidal might also be the more cost-effective option on the table).
Initial thoughts: Although this fight initially feels like it should be the least competitive of the three on paper, there are some interesting stylistic storylines that I believe could make this matchup much more competitive than some would think.
Masvidal is an underrated grappler who should carry that on-paper edge with little argument to be had, but the Cuban standout seldom goes for takedowns as his “Plan A,” even if it behooves him. In addition, Masvidal – in victory or defeat – also has a knack for getting dropped early in almost Eddie Alvarez-like fashion that could be troublesome against the likes of McGregor.
That said, I would still favor the durability and veteran savvy of Masvidal, despite my projected line below not representing that thought.
Expected line: McGregor -110, Masvidal -110. I always feel a bit lazy listing a pick’em line or opinion (and I’m glad I’m not a real oddsmaker), but I believe there are some solid reasons to think that a close line like this will still benefit the house. Again, McGregor’s drawing power at the betting window can’t be understated, as I imagine anything close to this line will get bet up fast by the former champ’s supporters – leaving a plus sign next to Masvidal’s name that hardcores will be salivating over.
